EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

ADT's are in the right direction.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUN 2015 Time : 064500 UTC
Lat : 13:01:23 N Lon : 100:01:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1006.6mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.8 2.8

Center Temp : -44.1C Cloud Region Temp : -49.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

[Kingarabian]

Large system; similar to Andres.

But it has that look if shear stays down.

[Kingarabian]

Shear looks okay for now and dry air isn't too bad.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015


The depression does not appear to be strengthening yet. The
cyclone has a broad circulation with some evidence of multiple
centers. A pair of ASCAT passes at 0330 and 0415 UTC showed
maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. Given that the convective
pattern has not changed much since the time of the ASCAT data, the
initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt. This intensity estimate is a
little lower than the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and
UW-CIMSS ADT which are all T2.5/35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 305/7. The system is
expected to slow down and turn northward later today or tonight
when a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico cuts off
and drifts westward. The low aloft is expected to weaken this
weekend, which should allow ridging to become better established to
the north of the tropical cyclone. This pattern change should
cause the system to turn west-northwestward and increase in
forward speed in a few days. Although a fair amount of spread still
exists in the model solutions, they have come into better agreement
compared to previous cycles. In fact, most of the guidance has
shifted south and west away from the coast of southern Mexico, and
the official track forecast follows that trend.

The depression is expected to remain over warm water and in a moist
airmass for the next several days. These conditions support
steady intensification. A slightly inhibiting factor is vertical
wind shear, which is forecast by the SHIPS model to be around 15
kt for the next few days. The official intensity forecast is just
an update of the previous one and shows gradual intensification
through the period. This forecast lies at the high end of the
guidance, in best agreement with the SHIPS model. It should be
noted that the future intensity of the system is dependent on how
much it interacts with land, so if the system gets closer to the
coast than predicted, the longer range part of the forecast could be
too high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 13.1N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 13.5N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.1N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 14.4N 100.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 14.7N 100.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 15.5N 100.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 16.5N 103.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Hello Carlos!

EP, 03, 2015061112, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1004W, 35, 1001, TS

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 03, 201506111145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1320N, 10030W, , 2, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, KL, IM, 3, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.0 PT=2.5 FTBO DT
EP, 03, 201506111145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1320N, 10030W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, JS, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THREE EP032015 06/11/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 54 62 68 72 70 67 64 61 56
V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 54 62 68 72 70 67 64 61 56
V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 52 56 60 63 66 69 72 74
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 16 12 15 16 15 9 10 9 9 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 6 8 8 9 8 4 4 5 -1 0 2
SHEAR DIR 67 56 46 51 54 53 47 45 55 45 57 64 57
SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 158 158 158 160 161 160 159 159 156 154
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.8 -50.9 -51.3 -50.5 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 10 9 10 8 10 7 8 6
700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 71 72 73 72 69 69 63 58 57 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 18 19 19 19 17 14 13 11 8
850 MB ENV VOR 44 37 45 46 41 59 46 56 42 46 32 31 14
200 MB DIV 78 91 84 86 85 80 36 50 48 50 32 33 2
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 1 3 2 0 -1 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 378 351 325 302 280 255 210 179 173 188 186 206 187
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.9
LONG(DEG W) 100.4 100.6 100.8 100.7 100.7 100.6 100.5 100.7 101.5 102.7 104.3 105.3 105.9
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 3 5 7 7 5 3
HEAT CONTENT 38 38 38 39 40 41 42 40 32 24 14 10 8

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 6. 2. 1. -2. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 27. 33. 37. 35. 32. 29. 26. 21.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUN 2015 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 13:15:04 N Lon : 100:22:03 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.1mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.2 3.5

Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -70.2C

Hmm, I'd consider going 40 knts.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The organization of the tropical cyclone has gradually increased,
with a curved band of deep convection wrapping more than half way
around the system's center. The intensity is analyzed to be 35 kt
based upon a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak estimates with
consideration that the pattern recognition methods were apparently
a bit biased high in comparison with the ASCAT scatterometer
winds overnight. Thus the system is upgraded to Carlos, the third
tropical storm of the season in the Eastern North Pacific.

Even though the cyclone is over very warm waters, Carlos is likely
to continue to intensify at a moderate pace due to about 15 kt of
northeasterly vertical shear expected during the next two to three
days. At the longer forecast times, the shear may decrease as
Carlos approaches the axis of the upper-tropospheric ridge.
However, a dry and more stable environment at that time may preclude
substantial intensification. Given that Carlos' track now is
projected to remain away from the Mexican coast for at least
the short-term, it is less likely that land influences will affect
the system. The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend
of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical-dynamical models and is slightly
lower than that from the previous advisory.

Carlos is moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt. Shortly, a
developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico will cause the steering
pattern to weaken and Carlos should meander northward for the
next couple of days. In three to four days, a deep-layered ridge
will become re-established north of Carlos and help propel it
northwest or west-northwestward at a slow forward speed,
paralleling the southwestern Mexican coast. The official track
prediction is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and
is just slightly southwest of that from the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 13.6N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 14.0N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 14.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 14.4N 100.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 15.6N 101.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 16.8N 104.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 17.7N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

Talking about how fast the season has been.

Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry · 9m9 minutes ago
Only 4 other eastern Pacific #hurricane seasons have recorded the 3rd named by June 11th #Carlos

[cycloneye]

Well,recon was going on Friday but Thursday's TCPOD doesn't have anything. I suspect it has to do with the track now being away from land.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[Yellow Evan]

Really disappointing that Recon was cancelled. I think it's the NHC's best interest to send Recon in as much as possible.

[Yellow Evan]

Still expect further shifts west, based on ensembles. GFS 12z is rolling out, but appears futher west.

[cycloneye]

How things change like a dime. For days before this was a Invest the talk was about a possible crossover to the GOM but a few days later we may be looking at a TC going away from land.

[Yellow Evan]

How things change like a dime. For days before this was a Invest the talk was about a possible crossover to the GOM but a few days later we may be looking at a TC going away from land.

To be fair, I never expected the storm to enter the GOC. Then again, I was the first to think this will stay west.

12z GFS at least calls for decent intensification to 964 near, but even further west.

[Alyono]

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... MBds64.png

looks like a 45 kt storm

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Carlos is looking good and is getting better organized. Conditions in Mexico will worsen as it gets closer and will bring some rain and high surfs. We shall see how strong Carlos gets.

Synopsis for Carlos and other basins: http://goo.gl/EeGts9

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Indeed is 45kts.

EP, 03, 2015061118, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1003W, 45, 1000, TS

[Kingarabian]

How things change like a dime. For days before this was a Invest the talk was about a possible crossover to the GOM but a few days later we may be looking at a TC going away from land.

To be fair, I never expected the storm to enter the GOC. Then again, I was the first to think this will stay west.

12z GFS at least calls for decent intensification to 964 near, but even further west.

I think as I mentioned in the Talkin Tropics thread, it took too long to get together to track NE; luckily for Mexico.

[Yellow Evan]

How things change like a dime. For days before this was a Invest the talk was about a possible crossover to the GOM but a few days later we may be looking at a TC going away from land.

To be fair, I never expected the storm to enter the GOC. Then again, I was the first to think this will stay west.

12z GFS at least calls for decent intensification to 964 near, but even further west.

I think as I mentioned in the Talkin Tropics thread, it took too long to get together to track NE; luckily for Mexico.

The system got going as fast as expected by global models AFAIK. It might have to dimue with a slightly weaker than expected ridge.