EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

When the eye becomes visible as it is now, the intensity is generally Cat 2 going on Cat 3 soon. Cat 1 hurricanes rarely have a cleared-out eye.

[Kingarabian]

When the eye becomes visible as it is now, the intensity is generally Cat 2 going on Cat 3 soon. Cat 1 hurricanes rarely have a cleared-out eye.

Thank you for this.

It's almost becoming the norm for tropical storms to have eyes now with the way intensities are issued.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye looks a little obscured in recent frame. But yea, this is probably a hurricane now.

[Yellow Evan]

When the eye becomes visible as it is now, the intensity is generally Cat 2 going on Cat 3 soon. Cat 1 hurricanes rarely have a cleared-out eye.

Thank you for this.

It's almost becoming the norm for tropical storms to have eyes now with the way intensities are issued.

High end TS/low end hurricanes usually have ragged eyes or very cold cloud tops. Clear well defined non-banding eyes usually start to happen around Cat 2. Not sure what category of eyes Hilda belongs in right now.

[1900hurricane]

ADT will catch on eventually (probably). Having the initial guess location so close to the edge of the small CDO might be throwing it off for now.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT will catch on eventually (probably). Having the initial guess location so close to the edge of the small CDO might be throwing it off for now.

They should be on a MW scene type now... Hopefully NHC rises the ADT center fix.

[Kingarabian]

When the eye becomes visible as it is now, the intensity is generally Cat 2 going on Cat 3 soon. Cat 1 hurricanes rarely have a cleared-out eye.

Thank you for this.

It's almost becoming the norm for tropical storms to have eyes now with the way intensities are issued.

High end TS/low end hurricanes usually have ragged eyes or very cold cloud tops. Clear well defined non-banding eyes usually start to happen around Cat 2. Not sure what category of eyes Hilda belongs in right now.

I disagree.

High end TS/low end hurricanes usually have warm spots or hints of a ragged eye with microwave imagery to back it up.

That's when 60-65kts is justafiable.

But when the eye is as clear as day on visible, it's probably near cat.2.

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015

Hilda has undergone rapid intensification during the past several
hours, with a small eye forming in the middle of the central dense
overcast. The initial intensity, however, is somewhat uncertain due
to a large spread in the satellite estimates. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt and 65 kt, while the latest
AMSU estimates from CIMSS and CIRA are 75 kt and 60 kt. In
addition, there is a CIMSS Satellite consensus estimate of about 60
kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 70
kt. The shear observed this morning seems to have diminished, as
the outflow is increasing in the eastern semicircle.

The initial motion is slightly faster at 275/13. For the next 48
hours or so, Hilda should be steered westward to west-northwestward
by the deep-layer subtropical ridge to its north. After that time,
a mid- to upper-level low is expected to develop north of the
Hawaiian Islands, which should cause Hilda to turn generally
northwestward. The track guidance again generally agrees on this
scenario, and while the GFDL and GFDN models remain right outliers
there is better overall agreement on how sharply Hilda will turn
than for the previous forecast. The new forecast track is nudged a
little to the west of the previous track based mostly on the
current position and motion, and it lies near the consensus models
and the center of the guidance envelope.

It is unclear how long the current rapid intensification will last.
The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows about a
30 percent chance of a 25 kt increase in strength during the next
24 hours. However, the cloud pattern of the hurricane still has a
ragged appearance, and due to the small size of the system any
unfavorable aspect of the environment could stop intensification.
The new forecast compromises between these extremes and calls for
continued strengthening at a slower rate through 36 hours. After
48-72 hours, the cyclone is expected to encounter strong
southwesterly vertical shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures, and this combination should cause significant
weakening. The new intensity forecast remains in best overall
agreement with the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 12.7N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.0N 139.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 13.7N 142.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 14.4N 144.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 15.2N 145.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 19.0N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 20.5N 151.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Eye seems to be clearing. Looks face value high-end Cat 1/low-end Cat 2.

[wxman57]

Looks more like a mid to upper-end Cat 2 now (90-95kts). Getting close to Cat 3. I am measuring it at about 60nm across. Eye is about 7nm across. Hurricane force winds may extend out only about 10nm. Tiny storm. Dvorak isn't working well with it.

[Kingarabian]

[1900hurricane]

Eye is still clearly apparent on visible imagery, but some thin translucent cirrus must be just over it because it's quite difficult to discern on infrared.

[euro6208]

Nice to track EPAC storms since most are fishes.

Impressive small hurricane!

[Yellow Evan]

Looks T5.0.

[WeatherGuesser]

Hilda Does Hawaii or no?

[Yellow Evan]

CMG ring now....

[Kingarabian]

CMG ring now....

Cat 3, I have to say it.

Shame that ADT can't handle it.

Actually if the eye clears out more it'll be cat.4.

[Yellow Evan]

Holy crap. SAB broke constraints!!!!

EP, 10, 201508080000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1290N, 13900W, , 1, 102, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, MT, VIM, 1, 5555 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=4.5 PT=5.0 FTBO RI

[Kingarabian]

wxman57 on the money, once again.