ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N31W. CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AMPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE LOW WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I say tropical depression by the end of tomorrow.

[Hammy]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/1997/atl/ir_sat_atl_8_166.png
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/1997/atl/ir_sat_atl_8_174.png
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/1997/atl/ir_sat_atl_8_182.png

I was doing a comparison to 1997, and found this series of waves not too much later than now. Large convective buildup, a few lows, and poof after a few days. With this year's El Nino conditions being so similar to 1997, the amount of dry air, wind shear, and continued entanglement in the ITCZ, it's quite likely this will meet the same fate in the next day or two without developing.

[cycloneye]

I can say with confidence that they will raise the % at 8 PM.

[gatorcane]

Given the Euro run and overall 12Z guidance from the global models, I agree, development chances should go up next outlook

[emeraldislenc]

what percentage to you think it will be raised too?

[Weatherboy1]

Well, at least we have something interesting to watch - and with a decent amount of model support too. Still several days away from the islands if it even develops so plenty of time to follow and see how conditions evolve. It does appear at this early stage that we don't have an "insta-fish" in terms of track.

[Alyono]

have to increase development chances based upon this. After seeing the 12Z guidance, I am very glad that the rest of the team went with higher development chances than I was thinking

[Gustywind]

I can say with confidence that they will raise the % at 8 PM.

Thanks for mentionning that i go with you Superman By the way Cycloneye, do you have the latest best track? thanks

[Hammy]

Lets not forget how poorly the models did with the shear with the system that was expected to form off the EC. I'm sticking to my 20% as this has so far failed to maintain any reasonable amount of convection for more than an hour at a time which indicates it's still pulling in a lot of dry air as well.

[ouragans]

JFYI, this system was on very long term models, developing somewhat to TD ou weak TS, then colapsing before reaching the islands. Another system is due to reach the NE islands by August 29th.

We'll see if CFS is bullish 6-7 weeks in advance

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD. 96L beginning on a climb mode... at least


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

[NCSTORMMAN]

Convection building back in for 96L. Soon to be Danny.

[MGC]

96L is spinning like a top in the mid levels. Only a matter of time before a surface circulation develops IMO. I agree with Cycloneye with a likely increase in development percentages....would not be surprised with code red soon. Will have to see what all those pesky ULL do in a few days......MGC

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone have a latest satellite loop?

[chaser1]

Visible satellite presentation is looking very impressive to me at the moment. I can see the dry air to 96L's north (more-so well to its Northwest). Of greater interest however, is the surface convergence being nicely displayed by those tap roots of densely moist air rushing in from the system's south. Typically I"ve found that developing Tropical Depressions presenting that characteristic while riding along and just north of the ITCZ, have been those to most rapidly spin up in the deep tropics during the season's climatological prime time.

[ronjon]

have to increase development chances based upon this. After seeing the 12Z guidance, I am very glad that the rest of the team went with higher development chances than I was thinking

Hey Alyono..as you know, there's huge merit in being conservative against development - odds in your favor most of the time.

[OURAGAN]

I agree 30 knots and 1010 MB now at NRL

[hurricanekid416]

This system kind of reminds me of dorian from a few years ago

[Ivanhater]