ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, shear is still doing a number on it, but it does have a robust circulation thus far.

[caneman]

That ull seems to be backing and lifting out
Not sure if it will have time but may have a small window to try and organize

[tropicwatch]

Percentage back up.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Dean4Storms]

Thank God for that shear or this could have been a real bad situation!

[NDG]

Yea, shear is still doing a number on it, but it does have a robust circulation thus far.

I am still waiting for your response on the loop below

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[pgoss11]

Percentage back up.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

How is this even possible with all that shear in the Gulf? Doesn't make sense to me.

[NDG]

Percentage back up.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

How is this even possible with all that shear in the Gulf? Doesn't make sense to me.

I have no idea why Forecaster Stewart wet up to 40%, it basically has not model support for development (unless the crazy CMC is still is) and the shear is relentless, forecasted to increase even more. But he's the Pro-Met not me.

[Hammy]

Percentage back up.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

How is this even possible with all that shear in the Gulf? Doesn't make sense to me.

I have no idea why Forecaster Stewart wet up to 40%, it basically has not model support for development (unless the crazy CMC is still is) and the shear is relentless, forecasted to increase even more. But he's the Pro-Met not me.

They went up with 98L which doesn't have model support either so they could just be ignoring them at the moment.

[northjaxpro]

Good evening everyone. Just back from Orlando where I celebrated my golden birthday this weekend. Had a great, great time with friends.

Everything I expected of 99L to this point has manifested. Hostile conditions in place now will probably get worse over the next 36 hours. A sheared, lopsided.featured which just will struggle mightingly due to the shear. Plenty of moisture on the way for the Northeast GOM region and into the Southeast U.S. as heavy rainfall potential will be in play. Florida will see some more rain as well, which we do not need anymore than I need a hole in my head.

[TJRE]

Our dueling eddy's look like they want to grow limbs
IMHO

Incubator Sat
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Gul ... verDim=100

try the enhancement menu.....if you are new to the COD MET loops

[blp]

From the 8pm NHC. Picks up on two things we are seeing low is still well defined and if it moves NE it could surprise some.

1. A well-defined low pressure system located over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles north of the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms
that extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico southward across
western Cuba and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Upper-level
winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development
while the system moves northward toward the northern Gulf Coast
during the next couple of days. However, only a slight deviation of
the motion toward the northeast would place the system in less
hostile environmental conditions. Regardless of tropical cyclone

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, shear is still doing a number on it, but it does have a robust circulation thus far.

I am still waiting for your response on the loop below

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Right, exactly what I have been saying. The larger LLC has continued to move Northward while the small eddy now getting sucked into the circulation to its east. That small eddy is clearly seen circulating around the bigger LLC throughout the day. NHC rose the chance due to that larger circulation very close to the convection just to its east. If it moves any toward the East it'll be in somewhat more favorable conditions!

[tropicwatch]

Our dueling eddy's look like they want to grow limbs
IMHO

Kind of looks like a wopsided smiley face

[rolltide]

Good evening everyone. Just back from Orlando where I celebrated my golden birthday this weekend. Had a great, great time with friends.

Everything I expected of 99L to this point has manifested. Hostile conditions in place now will probably get worse over the next 36 hours. A sheared, lopsided.featured which just will struggle mightingly due to the shear. Plenty of moisture on the way for the Northeast GOM region and into the Southeast U.S. as heavy rainfall potential will be in play. Florida will see some more rain as well, which we do not need anymore than I need a hole in my head.

Speak for yourself. While most of Florida has seen plenty of rain NW Florida (the part people forget about) is very dry. I know Pensacola could use a few inches of rain.

[northjaxpro]

Good evening everyone. Just back from Orlando where I celebrated my golden birthday this weekend. Had a great, great time with friends.

Everything I expected of 99L to this point has manifested. Hostile conditions in place now will probably get worse over the next 36 hours. A sheared, lopsided.featured which just will struggle mightingly due to the shear. Plenty of moisture on the way for the Northeast GOM region and into the Southeast U.S. as heavy rainfall potential will be in play. Florida will see some more rain as well, which we do not need anymore than I need a hole in my head.

Speak for yourself. While most of Florida has seen plenty of rain NW Florida (the part people forget about) is very dry. I know Pensacola could use a few inches of rain.

Well , OK . I should have stated by saying most of Florida doesn't need any more rain. I apologize to.you and others out in the panhandle who are experiencing a bit of a drought currently. But, 99L hopefully will bring that part of the state some much needed rain the next few days OK!!!

[tropicwatch]

[chaser1]

Yea, shear is still doing a number on it, but it does have a robust circulation thus far.

I am still waiting for your response on the loop below

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Right, exactly what I have been saying. The larger LLC has continued to move Northward while the small eddy now getting sucked into the circulation to its east. That small eddy is clearly seen circulating around the bigger LLC throughout the day. NHC rose the chance due to that larger circulation very close to the convection just to its east. If it moves any toward the East it'll be in somewhat more favorable conditions!

Bones, what exactly are you planning on using that tweezers for?

For God sakes Jim,, do you expect me to just sit here and allow 99L to simply die? Using this tweezers, perhaps I can carefully grab its little feeder band and pull it eastward... (notices Spock laughing) WHAT?!

Bones, never mind that you've been the cause for Spock to exhibit a human emotion. He'll likely need therapy now. Ohura? Open a direct Com to Stewart at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Stewart? Kirk here. Chekov has just informed me that we can attempt to capture your Gulf Disturbance with a tractor beam and possibly nudge it northeastward, though frankly I don't imagine you'd even find a Klingon who would consider 99L to really develop into a tropical storm.

[chaser1]

(Sorry, just felt the need to injest a bit of Star Trek humor into this unraveling Atlantic Hurricane Season, LOL)

[gatorcane]

Latest shortwave loop. Looks like the "llc" isn't moving a whole lot. My best guess is a slow NE drift. Looks to have stalled maybe towards the end of the loop:

[NDG]

Still no model support for development. Shear is analyzed by SHIPS at 28 knots, forecasts it to increase to the upper 30s by tomorrow evening and into the 40s by Tuesday before moving inland, perhaps even higher than that.