ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

NDG, that trough is showing to be stronger now and dig more south, thats why the models jumped, lastnight runs had the trough not as strong and moved towards the east coast quickly now models showing it dig really south

[BobHarlem]

I thought weak systems generally track more east west. If this is decoupling why are the models now predicting a dramatic out to sea agenda?

It just means there is a lot of uncertainty right now. If the trend holds next major (0Z,12z) run then there may be something to it. It trended west yesterday, and east this afternoon. It may go back west... This is why you can't get caught up in a single model run (or two).

[ozonepete]

So "we" have gone from saying the ridge is going to be so strong that Erika is going to track south of the FL Peninsula into the GOM to now that the ridge is not going to be so strong so Erika will track east of FL.
Lol, something is fishy here, I am not buying that and now some TV Mets in my area are jumping with the 18z models saying that Erika's track will shift considerable to the east.

Did you say "fishy"? lol

[NDG]

So "we" have gone from saying the ridge is going to be so strong that Erika is going to track south of the FL Peninsula into the GOM to now that the ridge is not going to be so strong so Erika will track east of FL.
Lol, something is fishy here, I am not buying that and now some TV Mets in my area are jumping with the 18z models saying that Erika's track will shift considerable to the east.

Did you say "fishy"? lol

Lol, I meant to say "bull"

[MGC]

Low level circulation is now completely exposed. MCL to the south of the surface low with convection. Wondering if we might get the surface circulation to reform closer to the MCL at a later time......MGC

[ozonepete]

Convection starting to get closer to the center again. I doubt NHC will downgrade because this will quite likely pulse back up tonight. Better to keep it a minimal storm for continuity's sake.

[Weatherboy1]

I thought weak systems generally track more east west. If this is decoupling why are the models now predicting a dramatic out to sea agenda?

It just means there is a lot of uncertainty right now. If the trend holds next major (0Z,12z) run then there may be something to it. It trended west yesterday, and east this afternoon. It may go back west... This is why you can't get caught up in a single model run (or two).

Good perspective. If I wake up tomorrow morning and see that the models that come out overnight continue the shift to the east, then I'll definitely be more relaxed about the potential threat. Also, that'll give me a chance to see if the rough shear Erika is facing right now kills her off or eases up. She obviously regenerated strongly overnight last night, so not sure how it'll pan out!

[wxman57]

Check back here on Monday and I'll have much higher confidence whether or not Florida might be significantly impacted.

Note that just because Erika appears to be a sheared depression today doesn't mean it can't regain strength. Depressions or even disturbances become storms all the time.

[gatorcane]

Having problems getting on NHC website. Guess too many people are trying to access.

[Steve H.]

After looking closely at her, Erika does show she still has a strong circulation and some convection is trying to pull in from the eastern side. We'll have to wait and see. Don't think it's a Danny redo attm.

[ozonepete]

Having problems getting on NHC website. Guess too many people are trying to access.

And half of them are from storm2k.

[SFLcane]

Erika will be dealing with hostile winds for at least the next 2-3 days intensification rate will be much slower then being portrayed by the GFDL and HWRF.

[Hammy]

Circulation center seems to be speeding away from the convection now, and I think the actual wind center may be a tad south of the swirl due to the speed.

[wzrgirl1]

I have never seen such discrepancies in posts in the 11 years I have been on here. One saying it will fish, one saying it won't. One saying it has decoupled one saying not. One saying it is firing back up and one saying it is dying down. I think I need to take a break and go and get some water.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

http://i59.tinypic.com/23kb3eu.jpg
Naked Erika...

In the first pic of Chris. seems to be there was a upper level low off to his west causing shear to affect him as well as the llC out running the mid level. With this storm I don't see that .

[PTrackerLA]

INIT 26/2100Z 16.6N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 20.5N 69.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 22.7N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

New NHC forecast still tops out at 75mph

[hohnywx]

Stays a TS at 5 p.m.:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 58.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[Weatherboy1]

Regarding shear, the tendency map here shows that Erika is actually going from an area of higher shear to an area of somewhat lower shear. If you use the "-3 hours" feature and go back 12-18 hours, you see she is in an area of brighter yellows/oranges. Now, she's entering a more green/light yellow zone. Would seem to me she's poised to enter a more favorable shear zone by tomorrow morning, assuming she holds together until then no? Or am I reading this wrong?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

Semi-educated amateur ... listen to the experts as always!

[hohnywx]

Everyone, please read this line from the 5 p.m. discussion and take a deep breath. Then, read it again:

One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast
track, especially at the long range where the average NHC track
errors during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240
miles at day 5.

[wxman57]

http://i59.tinypic.com/23kb3eu.jpg
Naked Erika...

In the first pic of Chris. seems to be there was a upper level low off to his west causing shear to affect him as well as the llC out running the mid level. With this storm I don't see that .

There's an upper-level low over eastern Cuba now, but it's retreating westward.