ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[psyclone]

The NHC has prudently shifted the track east. Assuming the system survives (I suspect the odds favor it does survive but there's still a respectable chance of dissipation) I wouldn't be shocked if they keep stepping it farther east in subsequent advisories. Since these storms often don't offer much on their western quadrants, it wouldn't take much additional eastern shifts to leave fl completely off the hook (and that assumes the system survives...far from a certainty at this point)...nothing beyond monitoring is warranted at this time for US coast residents at this point IMO...if things change there will be plenty of time...that's the advantage of having a naked swirl a long ways out there..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CronkPSU]

I saw Joe B mentioned it getting trapped, where is he expecting it (or where does any ProMet think) it will go past Monday and Tuesday, is he talking about it getting stalled and becoming stationary?

[txwatcher91]

A few storms trying to pop on the eastern side of the circulation. With DMAX coming up later tonight it is quite possible for Erika to once again fire convection back up long enough to reach better conditions. Dry air appears to be a factor as well with what appears to be numerous arc clouds rotating out from the center.

[hurricanedude]

thanks op...had to post it twice...LOL....I lived in Emporia Virginia with Floyd and the entire city went under as much as 20 feet of water...scary stuff...looked like new orleans on a smaller scale after katrina....but it wasnt a man made disaster it was 20-30 inches of tropical rains, whew what a storm....I just saw floyd and freaked..wasnt thinking u were calling for a floyd

[Bocadude85]

The NHC is still showing a landfall on Andros Island. I am having a hard time finding a storm that struck that Island from the East and then missed Florida to the east. I'm sure there are a few examples. Anyone know of any?

[gatorcane]

The NHC has prudently shifted the track east. Assuming the system survives (I suspect the odds favor it does survive but there's still a respectable chance of dissipation) I wouldn't be shocked if they keep stepping it farther east in subsequent advisories. Since these storms often don't offer much on their western quadrants, it wouldn't take much additional eastern shifts to leave fl completely off the hook (and that assumes the system survives...far from a certainty at this point)...nothing beyond monitoring is warranted at this time for US coast residents at this point IMO...if things change there will be plenty of time...that's the advantage of having a naked swirl a long ways out there..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nearly all the time in this situation if you look back at recent history gong back to Floyd, Erin, and many others that I can't remember the name of the storm that seems to be the case. We get in the cone here in South FL and slowly the track starts shifting gradually more east then the system ends up completely missing us to the east with little weather here. One of these times, we will not be so lucky. Not sure if it is this time or not. The GFS and ECMWF are the best models in the world and that consensus is barely off the SE Coast of Florida. I don't put much faith in all of the other models to be honest though interesting what they are showing of course. If either the GFS or ECMWF runs shift a little west again, watch out

[ozonepete]

The NHC is still showing a landfall on Andros Island. I am having a hard time finding a storm that struck that Island from the East and then missed Florida to the east. I'm sure there are a few examples. Anyone know of any?

hurricane Floyd in 1999.

[sunnyday]

Maybe S Fl is going to dodge another bullet. This move to the east makes me think recurve.

These statements are only my opinion. Please see the NHC or NWS for accurate information.

[Bocadude85]

The NHC is still showing a landfall on Andros Island. I am having a hard time finding a storm that struck that Island from the East and then missed Florida to the east. I'm sure there are a few examples. Anyone know of any?

hurricane Floyd in 1999.

Floyd missed Andros island to the north.

[SouthDadeFish]

The NHC is still showing a landfall on Andros Island. I am having a hard time finding a storm that struck that Island from the East and then missed Florida to the east. I'm sure there are a few examples. Anyone know of any?

hurricane Floyd in 1999.

I don't think Floyd got as close as Andros Island. I don't recall any recent hurricane making landfall on Andros and not making landfall on FL.

[Weatherlover12]

Maybe S Fl is going to dodge another bullet. This move to the east makes me think recurve.

These statements are only my opinion. Please see the NHC or NWS for accurate information.

To soon to even say things like thag

[NDG]

Erika is going to be tracking over SSTs between 85 degrees and 90 degrees, ouch!
I will hate to see the monster it could become if the UL environment is as good as forecasted by the GFS and Euro.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bocadude85]

The NHC is still showing a landfall on Andros Island. I am having a hard time finding a storm that struck that Island from the East and then missed Florida to the east. I'm sure there are a few examples. Anyone know of any?

hurricane Floyd in 1999.

I don't think Floyd got as close as Andros Island. I don't recall any recent hurricane making landfall on Andros and not making landfall on FL.

Might be something to watch for..I know the Euro and GFS both move Erika over Andros. Will be interesting to see if she hits Andros or not.

[caneseddy]

The NHC is still showing a landfall on Andros Island. I am having a hard time finding a storm that struck that Island from the East and then missed Florida to the east. I'm sure there are a few examples. Anyone know of any?

hurricane Floyd in 1999.

I don't think Floyd got as close as Andros Island. I don't recall any recent hurricane making landfall on Andros and not making landfall on FL.

The only one I can think of is Michelle in 2001

[NDG]

The NHC is still showing a landfall on Andros Island. I am having a hard time finding a storm that struck that Island from the East and then missed Florida to the east. I'm sure there are a few examples. Anyone know of any?

hurricane Floyd in 1999.

I don't think Floyd got as close as Andros Island. I don't recall any recent hurricane making landfall on Andros and not making landfall on FL.

Yeah, Floyd tracked east of Andros Island.

[OuterBanker]

New track is very similar to the 12z GFS run.

Starting to look like a recurve. Like Floyd.

No offese, but I don't consider Floyd a recurve.

[fd122]

How mucn rain and wind can we expect here in the Leeward islands? As of right now the wind has definitely picked up with a fee occasional showers. Thank you.

[ozonepete]

The NHC is still showing a landfall on Andros Island. I am having a hard time finding a storm that struck that Island from the East and then missed Florida to the east. I'm sure there are a few examples. Anyone know of any?

hurricane Floyd in 1999.

I don't think Floyd got as close as Andros Island. I don't recall any recent hurricane making landfall on Andros and not making landfall on FL.

Floyd missed Andros by a hair. And Sandy went over Andros in 2012, though it came from the SSE.

[Sanibel]

Appears to be a burst.

[OuterBanker]

IMHO that little skinny sandbar that sticks out around 35n 75w gets hit way too often.