ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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HurrMark
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1041 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:00 am

Now it looks northeast of 06Z as of 90 hours.
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#1042 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:01 am

LOOKING BETTER FOR THE U.S. as another trough looks like it may save the day...too early still but looking better.

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#1043 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:02 am

IMO, the key is where it is at 30-35N latitude. Will it be west of or east of 71W? That seems to be the extent of the trough.
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#1044 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:03 am

See you later...
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#1045 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:04 am

Well that track is way offshore so far. what a difference 24 hours makes. it makes you wonder what things will look like in another 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1046 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:05 am

I think the thread is thinner than we think, and it leads to wildly different solutions. I wouldn't feel safe until I see this moving out of here.
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#1047 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:06 am

We will see. I am certainly hoping for the best in that Joaquin will remain out to sea. but, it is still too early to sound the all clear!! Still too close for comfort regarding U.S. landfall potential.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1048 Postby petit_bois » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:07 am

starting to look more and more fishy now...
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#1049 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:10 am

Well as long as the Euro doesn't freak out and come all the way back west, we may finally start to have consensus, meaning a little less stress for our NHC forecasters.
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#1050 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:11 am

petit_bois wrote:starting to look more and more fishy now...


Careful using that word...it has already impacted the Bahamas heavily (and will continue to), and Bermuda and eastern Canada would be in the potential path...
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#1051 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:14 am

Looks like the closed low gives enough influence to slow it down this run, but then the blocking high collapses and takes Joaquin into the mid-latitude flow this run.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1052 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:16 am

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55



JMA run has it really shooting out to the fishes
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#1053 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:16 am

Anyone got the ensemble?
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#1054 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:19 am

This is good for the U.S, but now we'll have to listen to everyone praising "King Euro" for the next 10 years. :(


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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1055 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:19 am

nah you don't both models are good models, and the euro if it happens did really really good on this
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#1056 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:20 am

SeGaBob wrote:This is good for the U.S, but now we'll have to listen to everyone praising "King Euro" for the next 10 years. :(


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The Euro has failed several times too. It bombed on some of this past winter's big storms...
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1057 Postby ronjon » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:20 am

Got to be honest though - the Euro sniffs out these long range trends better than any other model. The American models seem to always be playing catch up to it.
Last edited by ronjon on Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1058 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:20 am

SeGaBob wrote:This is good for the U.S, but now we'll have to listen to everyone praising "King Euro" for the next 10 years. :(


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Until this passes north of 30N there is no king model.
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SeGaBob

#1059 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:22 am

:uarrow: I agree, but some certain people won't.

Guess it's almost time for the 12z.
Last edited by SeGaBob on Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1060 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:23 am

SeGaBob wrote:This is good for the U.S, but now we'll have to listen to everyone praising "King Euro" for the next 10 years. :(


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Well the EURO deserves praise in this situation. Amazing coup.

BRB going eat crow
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