ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[TheProfessor]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_gefs_latest.png

GFS ensembles....

Wants to take it northeast RIGHT NOW.

Its still moving west though.

That's what I have been wondering, if the storm keeps moving west or transitions to a west-northwest movement tonight, could it miss it's window of going out to sea because it's too far west?

[NDG]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_gefs_latest.png

GFS ensembles....

Wants to take it northeast RIGHT NOW.

Its still moving west though.

That's what I have been wondering, if the storm keeps moving west or transitions to a west-northwest movement tonight, could it miss it's window of going out to sea because it's too far west?

If you guys look closely they do not start moving it NE right away, they have in the same general through the next 24 hrs before a starting a track to the NE slowly.

[Weatherwatcher98]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_gefs_latest.png

GFS ensembles....

Wants to take it northeast RIGHT NOW.

Its still moving west though.

That's what I have been wondering, if the storm keeps moving west or transitions to a west-northwest movement tonight, could it miss it's window of going out to sea because it's too far west?

No trough is Too strong

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro hour 48 about same as 0Z Euro at hour 60. Chances of going well out to sea from the US later in this run: 90%+

[NDG]

I hate to say this......but damn the EURO is going to be right again! I saw how the euro could be right, and still was like we shall see, most everything else was WEST. I thought it was picking up too much on the ex ida to give it the escape out, but dang it if its not right again. I know our government will never admit that the GFS has a fundamental error and is not as good as the EURO...That will NEVER happen. I wish we could spend more money to figure out what is the root of the issue so we can compete with the EURO and beat it. Hell, even the US based Hurricane models (the single reason why they exist) are getting beat by a global model **for the most part, not always** I would assume that the Hurricane models are all GFS based? Moral of the store is.....Don't bet against the EURO if there has been good run to run agreement showing up on the OP, and especially when it has Ensemble support as well.

You should had listened to me yesterday morning
But seriously the Euro has not been perfect this season, it has been inconsistent from storm to storm in the Atlantic, I consider those that were doubting the Euro, in the beginning I was one of them until I saw the big picture of how well it had been performing with Joaquin and 99L, suddenly it all made sense that the more south it would move the harder it would be to get picked by the UL trough in the SE US and get drawn into the Carolinas.

[NDG]

12z Euro sticks to its gun.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 72 hour similar to 0Z Euro 84 hour. Bermuda threatened on another Euro run. Bermuda may very well be the next land after the Bahamas on which we focus.

[deltadog03]

I hate to say this......but damn the EURO is going to be right again! I saw how the euro could be right, and still was like we shall see, most everything else was WEST. I thought it was picking up too much on the ex ida to give it the escape out, but dang it if its not right again. I know our government will never admit that the GFS has a fundamental error and is not as good as the EURO...That will NEVER happen. I wish we could spend more money to figure out what is the root of the issue so we can compete with the EURO and beat it. Hell, even the US based Hurricane models (the single reason why they exist) are getting beat by a global model **for the most part, not always** I would assume that the Hurricane models are all GFS based? Moral of the store is.....Don't bet against the EURO if there has been good run to run agreement showing up on the OP, and especially when it has Ensemble support as well.

Are you positive the Euro is going to be right?

Pretty much!

[deltadog03]

I hate to say this......but damn the EURO is going to be right again! I saw how the euro could be right, and still was like we shall see, most everything else was WEST. I thought it was picking up too much on the ex ida to give it the escape out, but dang it if its not right again. I know our government will never admit that the GFS has a fundamental error and is not as good as the EURO...That will NEVER happen. I wish we could spend more money to figure out what is the root of the issue so we can compete with the EURO and beat it. Hell, even the US based Hurricane models (the single reason why they exist) are getting beat by a global model **for the most part, not always** I would assume that the Hurricane models are all GFS based? Moral of the store is.....Don't bet against the EURO if there has been good run to run agreement showing up on the OP, and especially when it has Ensemble support as well.

You should had listened to me yesterday morning
But seriously the Euro has not been perfect this season, it has been inconsistent from storm to storm in the Atlantic, I consider those that were doubting the Euro, in the beginning I was one of them until I saw the big picture of how well it had been performing with Joaquin and 99L, suddenly it all made sense that the more south it would move the harder it would be to get picked by the UL trough in the SE US and get drawn into the Carolinas.

Oh, I know its FAR from perfect...I just know that its the model of choice by default to give the most weight too. The GFS had a great idea, and was possible, but in the end The DOC got it more correct.

[LarryWx]

I hate to say this......but damn the EURO is going to be right again! I saw how the euro could be right, and still was like we shall see, most everything else was WEST. I thought it was picking up too much on the ex ida to give it the escape out, but dang it if its not right again. I know our government will never admit that the GFS has a fundamental error and is not as good as the EURO...That will NEVER happen. I wish we could spend more money to figure out what is the root of the issue so we can compete with the EURO and beat it. Hell, even the US based Hurricane models (the single reason why they exist) are getting beat by a global model **for the most part, not always** I would assume that the Hurricane models are all GFS based? Moral of the store is.....Don't bet against the EURO if there has been good run to run agreement showing up on the OP, and especially when it has Ensemble support as well.

Are you positive the Euro is going to be right?

Pretty much!

At this point, I agree with Delta.

At hour 96, the 12Z Euro just misses Bermuda to the west and brings the strong side of this to there. The good news is that Bermuda is able to handle a hurricane as well as about any islands due to nice elevation rises just off of many of the beaches (~40 feet+), very strong building codes, and almost no poverty.

[gatorcane]

up and out on the latest Euro. No threat to the U.S. based on that model. It has it FAR to the east of the United States.

[gatorcane]

I hate to say this......but damn the EURO is going to be right again! I saw how the euro could be right, and still was like we shall see, most everything else was WEST. I thought it was picking up too much on the ex ida to give it the escape out, but dang it if its not right again. I know our government will never admit that the GFS has a fundamental error and is not as good as the EURO...That will NEVER happen. I wish we could spend more money to figure out what is the root of the issue so we can compete with the EURO and beat it. Hell, even the US based Hurricane models (the single reason why they exist) are getting beat by a global model **for the most part, not always** I would assume that the Hurricane models are all GFS based? Moral of the store is.....Don't bet against the EURO if there has been good run to run agreement showing up on the OP, and especially when it has Ensemble support as well.

You should had listened to me yesterday morning
But seriously the Euro has not been perfect this season, it has been inconsistent from storm to storm in the Atlantic, I consider those that were doubting the Euro, in the beginning I was one of them until I saw the big picture of how well it had been performing with Joaquin and 99L, suddenly it all made sense that the more south it would move the harder it would be to get picked by the UL trough in the SE US and get drawn into the Carolinas.

Yes we need to get our GFS model as good as the Euro. It seems the Euro pulls through in tense situations like this when there are strong systems threatening the United States. Yeah it might miss disorganized systems but once they are defined, it seems to do very well. I again refer to Sandy 2012, the Euro was the first model that accurately predicted the turn to the west before the GFS did. In this case, it is the reverse with the Euro accurately showing an out to sea solution but the GFS showing a west bend, now the GFS agrees with the Euro.

[stormlover2013]

yeah I agree, it struggles when the system aren't really that organized but when they are its money

[TheStormExpert]

up and out on the latest Euro. No threat to the U.S. based on that model. It has it FAR to the east of the United States.

Maybe a threat to Bermuda. But yeah once again the U.S. is... "Saved By The Trough!"

[stormlover2013]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55



JMA is now on board with the euro

[PTrackerLA]

Funny how the BAMD now shows Carolinas now after indicating a OTS scenario yesterday when consensus was east coast. It's like the misfit models (GFDL,CMC,BAM) won't give up the goose .

[windnrain]

16z spread

Still lots of models take it to land.

That cutoff low looks essential to the forecast path. Note that all of the ones that take it inland take it in the direction of the cutoff low.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a4tCEw0f8w

[ROCK]

I hate to say this......but damn the EURO is going to be right again! I saw how the euro could be right, and still was like we shall see, most everything else was WEST. I thought it was picking up too much on the ex ida to give it the escape out, but dang it if its not right again. I know our government will never admit that the GFS has a fundamental error and is not as good as the EURO...That will NEVER happen. I wish we could spend more money to figure out what is the root of the issue so we can compete with the EURO and beat it. Hell, even the US based Hurricane models (the single reason why they exist) are getting beat by a global model **for the most part, not always** I would assume that the Hurricane models are all GFS based? Moral of the store is.....Don't bet against the EURO if there has been good run to run agreement showing up on the OP, and especially when it has Ensemble support as well.

Are you positive the Euro is going to be right?

Pretty much!

I agree with you....so much so I am going to hug the Euro even more next season...

[floridasun78]

here good Models site http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/an ... &file=anim