ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Ken Lucas]

GFDL has just shifted to Cape Cod

Is that a left or right shift?

From the 5 PM NHC discussion - "The Canadian, GFDL, and NAVGEM models are holdouts, however - still
calling for Joaquin to interact with the United States trough and
turn northwestward toward the U. S. coast. "

So I would assume a right shift.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=072hr

that pattern shouldnt be allowing it to just fly out to sea. my opinion is we will see 0z GFS come a little closer to the coast though i dont think it will get too close to va/nc

[ninel conde]

even if it stays that far offshore tides here sat/sun might reach to major coastal flood status.

[Alyono]

looks like a few more GFS ensembles are onshore with the 18Z run

[TheStormExpert]

looks like a few more GFS ensembles are onshore with the 18Z run

It seems like less if anything.

[Alyono]

no, compare that to the 12Z GFS

[NDG]

The crappy BAM models are now the only only ones with a US landfall, expect the NHC to shift the track closer to the consensus of models.

[CrazyC83]

no, compare that to the 12Z GFS

For that reason I would be hesitant to move the forecast track much.

[Frank2]

It appears to have become stationary and no doubt upwelling might halt things for now (my own opinion). Also, the trough seems to be tending towards a negative tilt - not sure if that's good or bad, but it might increase the moisture to the SE (Jim Cantore just tweeted an NWS rainfall forecast of 18" for central SC over the next few days)...

[gatorcane]

no, compare that to the 12Z GFS

Agreed, not only are there more 18Z ensembles showing Joaquin turning back west into the East Coast but even the out to sea ensembles have shifted west. Still out to sea, but further west.

[Ken Lucas]

no, compare that to the 12Z GFS

Agreed, not only are there more 18Z ensembles showing Joaquin turning back west into the East Coast but even the out to sea ensembles have shifted west. Still out to sea, but further west.

Would you expect the NHC 11 PM advisory to leave the same track as show in the 5 PM even though the said further eastward adjustments were likely?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

A continued tricky situation it would seem. Just when you think Joaquin is finished, he may not be. Very interesting storm and setup I must say.

[hurrtracker79]

Big shift west through 36 hours on the 0Z NAM. Near 75-100 miles!

[txwatcher91]

Big shift west through 36 hours on the 0Z NAM. Near 75-100 miles!

It should have some of the new data from the planes sampling the atmosphere in 00z runs. Wonder if GFS and euro will trend this way?

[hurrtracker79]

Can any pro mets review the NAM? That's a stark difference since 18Z

[hohnywx]

New NAM appears to be making a landfall...

[TimeZone]

NAM lol. Worst model out there imo I wouldn't take it seriously.

[hohnywx]

Just saying...it has the new data ingested. Not saying it's correct, but definitely need to see if the other models show something similar.

[txwatcher91]

NAM lol. Worst model out there imo I wouldn't take it seriously.

But it sees something to make it shift so far west and could mean other models may follow. The best I can tell the low captures this better and pulls it inland towards SC/GA.

[gatorcane]

Sometimes the NAM can be a precursor of what the next GFS run does and it is a BIG shift west. Perhaps some new data has caused this shift.