ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Well well look what the Cat dragged in, long time how have you been. Would really like your take on this mess.

yeah i pop in and out every so often.


take on its current state.... well clearly sheared, however it also has a lot more moisture to work with which should keep it alive. As for any reformation of the center south or under the that weak MLC...Not likely to see a anti poleward reformation. looking at radar it clear that we are seeing classic convective development along a convergent line enhanced by the shear. We might however see multiple vorts begin to get spit of that convection and rotate around until the shear lets up.


roughly where the center is. still moving quite fast.

[SFLcane]

Hello all.....

Eric! Talk to me what are your thoughts for Southern Florida?

[SeGaBob]

I expect a turn to the north shown on the next advisory unless I'm missing something...



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[N2FSU]

Hello all.....

Welcome back Aric!

[ozonepete]

Hello all.....

Haha. I knew you'd show up sooner or later since your hometown is in the crosshairs... Great to see you of course! There are a lot of people here that want your take on this.

[Aric Dunn]

Hello all.....

Haha. I knew you'd show up sooner or later since your hometown is in the crosshairs... Great to see you of course! There are a lot of people here that want your take on this.

haha well regardless if my home down is in it or not.. Im ready to fly out for this where ever it goes been too long

[NDG]

Erika better start gaining some latitude soon or it will track very close or over the tip of NE P.R.

[ozonepete]

take on its current state.... well clearly sheared, however it also has a lot more moisture to work with which should keep it alive. As for any reformation of the center south or under the that weak MLC...Not likely to see a anti poleward reformation. looking at radar it clear that we are seeing classic convective development along a convergent line enhanced by the shear. We might however see multiple vorts begin to get spit of that convection and rotate around until the shear lets up.

roughly where the center is. still moving quite fast.

I agree with your center fix. Also the current convective burst is pretty spectacular.

[toad strangler]

I expect a turn to the north shown on the next advisory unless I'm missing something...

The cone is WIDE at the end of this one.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Hello all.....

Haha. I knew you'd show up sooner or later since your hometown is in the crosshairs... Great to see you of course! There are a lot of people here that want your take on this.

haha well regardless if my home down is in it or not.. Im ready to fly out for this where ever it goes been too long

If it's final destination is the SE coast of NC, I have a place you can crash with all the beer, wine, and liquor you would want. LOL

[Aric Dunn]

Erika better start gaining some latitude soon or it will track very close or over the tip of NE P.R.

It is gaining some. should pass just to the north of the PR tomorrow. The convection is building south along a convergence line.. notice the grey -75 to 80 degree tops are building south away from the center... not good for organization. enough to keep it alive for another 36 hours or if these burst keep happening regularly

[NDG]

And they have shifted the track to the east a little.

[Aric Dunn]

Haha. I knew you'd show up sooner or later since your hometown is in the crosshairs... Great to see you of course! There are a lot of people here that want your take on this.

haha well regardless if my home down is in it or not.. Im ready to fly out for this where ever it goes been too long

If it's final destination is the SE coast of NC, I have a place you can crash with all the beer, wine, and liquor you would want. LOL

haha,well that would be good if it ends up being a bust.

[NDG]

Erika better start gaining some latitude soon or it will track very close or over the tip of NE P.R.

It is gaining some. should pass just to the north of the PR tomorrow. The convection is building south along a convergence line.. notice the grey -75 to 80 degree tops are building south away from the center... not good for organization. enough to keep it alive for another 36 hours or if these burst keep happening regularly

Your estimated COC was a little too far north, her latest estimated fix is 16.7N & 60.2W
And welcome back

[KatDaddy]

Hello Aric. I will be following Erika closely over the next several days.

[SFLcane]

And they have shifted the track to the east a little.

Id say that's more then a little..Also no longer a hurricane near South Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Erika better start gaining some latitude soon or it will track very close or over the tip of NE P.R.

It is gaining some. should pass just to the north of the PR tomorrow. The convection is building south along a convergence line.. notice the grey -75 to 80 degree tops are building south away from the center... not good for organization. enough to keep it alive for another 36 hours or if these burst keep happening regularly

Your estimated COC was a little too far north, her latest estimated fix is 16.7N & 60.2W
And welcome back

yeah not to far though.. it was a rough quick look.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

If it's final destination is the SE coast of NC, I have a place you can crash with all the beer, wine, and liquor you would want. LOL

haha,well that would be good if it ends up being a bust.

[/quote]


That's good if it ends up not being a bust! Haha You obviously haven't seen how we deal with hurricanes.

[northjaxpro]

This is for 11:00 p.m. advisory 120 hr forecast from NHC. Well, should this come close to fruition, one thing for certain we are going to have some serious surf and beach erosion alomng the NE Florida coast, and tropical storm wind gusts along the East Coast of Florida with a 75 kt Erika within 100 miles offshore.

[Evil Jeremy]

The track and guidance tonight is encouraging for all of Florida, but it's still too early to stop tracking. Yesterday everyone was talking about how the models was sending this to the Eastern Gulf, and how that trend was going to continue. Same discussion today, just the opposite direction. Lets see what the next model set brings. I've tracked plenty of storms where the 00z and 06z models swung one way, the 12z and 18z went the opposite, and repeat.