WPAC: NOUL - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A "dimple" is now appearing on the latest visible sat imagery...
By afternoon, Noul might be able to finally "see".

I'm a bit hesitant at giving this a chance of going super the past few days.
But now, looks like it can really wrap it up - this can go bonkers any time.

Definitely. And that means bad news for CALABARZON, Bicol, Eastern Visayas, NCR, Central and Northern Luzon, since the models are showing a big trend south and west.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The reason why all models and agencies are shifting south and west.

[ManilaTC]

A "dimple" is now appearing on the latest visible sat imagery...
By afternoon, Noul might be able to finally "see".

I'm a bit hesitant at giving this a chance of going super the past few days.
But now, looks like it can really wrap it up - this can go bonkers any time.

Yeah, looks like an eye is starting to peek now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A "dimple" is now appearing on the latest visible sat imagery...
By afternoon, Noul might be able to finally "see".

I'm a bit hesitant at giving this a chance of going super the past few days.
But now, looks like it can really wrap it up - this can go bonkers any time.

Yeah, looks like an eye is starting to peek now.

Banding type, or may be just some dry air

[ohno]

We still have 2 days for that str to weaken, people of the PHL should hope for that to happen. Unless of course you are a compulsive wishcaster...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Consensus

[mrbagyo]

James Reynolds is flying to Manila tomorrow...
It's still chaseable anywhere from Aurora to Dinapigue, Isabela
go beyond nort of Dinapigue(Palanan & Divilican, Isabela are no longer accessible by land) - "Goodluck" ..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

James Reynolds is flying to Manila tomorrow...
It's still chaseable anywhere from Aurora to Dinapigue, Isabela
go beyond nort of Dinapigue(Palanan & Divilican, Isabela are no longer accessible by land) - "Goodluck" ..

I think he should go to Catanduanes or Polilio Island. Just in case this storm would hit Visayas instead, what would happen to his chase then?

[Yellow Evan]

Any chance Morgeman chases this?

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 MAY 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 11:10:22 N Lon : 133:21:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.7mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -20.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 83km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06W NOUL 150507 0600 11.4N 133.1E WPAC 95 952

[euro6208]

Yap got 11 inches of rain from Noul and at least a couple inches more forecast...

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 070532Z PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN PROVIDING STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALLOWED TY 06W TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN SURROUNDING A 17 NM EYE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL ON THE ISLAND OF LUZON BY TAU 72.
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM WATER SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH
THE GFDN SHOWING A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND ECMWF A TRACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PRIMARY GROUPING. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES
WITHIN THE PRIMARY GROUPING NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING
RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING TY 06W TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. SOME REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER CROSSING LUZON,
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY INCREASE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD, PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED. HOWEVER,
NEARLY ALL DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN.
GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070852
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NOUL (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
800 PM CHST THU MAY 7 2015

...TYPHOON NOUL APPROACHES THE PHILIPPINES...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 132.6E

ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF NGULU AND
ABOUT 315 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NOUL WILL BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.6 DEGREES
EAST. NOUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 14 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE SOUTH.
NOUL IS EXPECTED INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[dexterlabio]

I always hype when a storm is about to go bonkers but this one does not have that "look" yet, could be having some problem..its eye got disrupted..

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 071210

A. TYPHOON 06W (NOUL)

B. 07/1132Z

C. 11.72N

D. 132.08E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 MAY 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 11:37:09 N Lon : 132:06:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.9mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.5 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 101km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.2 degrees

[euro6208]

Upgraded to the third major of the season!

06W NOUL 150507 1200 11.7N 132.0E WPAC 100 948

[euro6208]

JMA exits luzon, misses taiwan and meanders around okinawa



CMC recurves east of luzon and okinawa




EURO also recurves misses luzon but okinawa may not be so lucky



GFS into central luzon and recurves misses taiwan but the batanes islands will be in for a wild ride

[euro6208]

Entering an area of increased OHC