EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

The system got going as fast as expected by global models AFAIK. It might have to dimue with a slightly weaker than expected ridge.

Hopefully this reaches Baja weak but manages to send some moisture into California.

[Yellow Evan]

Why only 45?

TXPZ28 KNES 111905
TCSENP

A. 03E (CARLOS)

B. 11/1745Z

C. 13.6N

D. 100.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.5 BASED ON 8/10 VIS BANDING. MET IS 2.5 BASED ON
RAPID DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/1157Z 13.4N 100.0W AMSU
11/1402Z 13.9N 100.1W SSMIS


...LIDDICK

EP, 03, 201506111745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1340N, 10070W, , 3, 45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, JS, VI, 5, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUN 2015 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 13:46:39 N Lon : 100:31:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.2mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.0 3.0

[Alyono]

its only 45 kts because that is all the data indicate

[Yellow Evan]

its only 45 kts because that is all the data indicate

TAFB is 3.0 and SAB is 3.5 (a bit high, but worth factoring in), and CMISS CI values are 3.2/49 knts. That supports 50 knts if you wish to cling to Dvorak. But an ASCAT pass showed 42 knots

Yes, it looks like 40-45, but by your argument, the "data" indicates otherwise.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like the northeasterly shear is suppose to relax.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CARLOS EP032015 06/11/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 64 71 75 73 77 75 79 73 66
V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 64 71 75 73 77 75 79 73 66
V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 61 64 68 70 72 74 75 77 78 77
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 15 14 9 9 14 15 9 6 4 0 3 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 9 11 10 13 6 4 3 1 0 4 11
SHEAR DIR 47 29 30 11 48 41 43 56 35 31 2 79 78
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 157 158 160 160 161 159 159 158 156 151
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7
TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6
700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 73 73 75 72 72 69 66 61 60 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 19 20 21 23 23 20 22 20 23 19 17
850 MB ENV VOR 33 45 45 36 40 57 49 54 37 47 25 32 7
200 MB DIV 110 98 84 80 77 64 47 51 39 30 48 20 11
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 5 4 2 3 2 2 0 -2
LAND (KM) 303 289 275 268 261 226 205 186 161 139 168 196 208
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.5 100.6 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.6 101.1 102.0 103.2 104.6 105.7 106.5
STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 5 6 7 7 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 43 42 40 41 42 44 41 36 27 19 12 8 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 7. 10. 7. 11. 6. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 26. 30. 28. 32. 30. 34. 28. 21.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/11/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Kingarabian]

its only 45 kts because that is all the data indicate

TAFB is 3.0 and SAB is 3.5 (a bit high, but worth factoring in), and CMISS CI values are 3.2/49 knts. That supports 50 knts if you wish to cling to Dvorak. But an ASCAT pass showed 42 knots

Yes, it looks like 40-45, but by your argument, the "data" indicates otherwise.

Alyono is talking about raw data. It's the same thing as if a recon plane came in right now and observed the storm. You go with the absolute most reliable data.

I think it's time we all understood that Dvorak can be off no matter how precise. Blanca shined some light.

[Yellow Evan]

its only 45 kts because that is all the data indicate

TAFB is 3.0 and SAB is 3.5 (a bit high, but worth factoring in), and CMISS CI values are 3.2/49 knts. That supports 50 knts if you wish to cling to Dvorak. But an ASCAT pass showed 42 knots

Yes, it looks like 40-45, but by your argument, the "data" indicates otherwise.

Alyono is talking about raw data. It's the same thing as if a recon plane came in right now and observed the storm. You go with the absolute most reliable data.

I think it's time we all understood that Dvorak can be off no matter how precise. Blanca shined some light.

Dvorak is more often than not statistically. within a .5 of a T numbers, and it was for Balnca. Sure, it's possilbe Dvorak is more off here, but without any recon, we won't know.

And what raw data? ASCAT has 42, so that indicate winds of around 45 (maybe a little higher) with undersampling, maybe 50. 45 is understandable, but I'd probs be generous, and give it 50,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

A 1602 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed that Carlos has strengthened somewhat
during the day. Based on the scatterometer data, the intensity is
set to 45 kt. This is in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate
from TAFB. The tropical storm is currently experiencing moderate
northeasterly shear, and convection is limited to a large band
stretching around the western and southern portions of the
circulation. Cloud tops have warmed a little during the day, though
a recent burst of convection, located just southwest of the center,
suggests that this is only a temporary trend. The ECMWF and GFS
forecast that the moderate shear will persist for the next day or
two. After that, a more favorable upper-level wind environment and
warm SSTs will likely support more strengthening. The official
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory,
and is near the intensity consensus, excluding the GFDL which shows
significant land interaction and is considered an outlier.

Carlos has been moving very slowly north-northwestward at about 2 kt
for the past several hours. The motion is more certain now since
the ASCAT pass also provided an excellent center fix. No
significant changes have been made to the track forecast. Carlos
will remain embedded within a weak steering pattern for the next 48
hours, before a deep-layer ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico
to northwestern Mexico strengthens. This should force the cyclone
to begin moving west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico,
at a slightly faster pace. The forecast track is near the multi-
model consensus, with a little extra weight given to the GFS and
ECMWF solutions.

The initial wind radii were adjusted based on the extremely useful
1602 UTC ASCAT data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 14.1N 100.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 100.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 14.6N 100.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 14.9N 100.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 15.1N 101.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 15.7N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 18.5N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Zelinsky

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The long-range intensity forecast is difficult. NHC has Carlos reaching 80kt in 96 hours and then beginning to weaken thereafter, presumably because of a drier environment. But with lower shear and continued warm SSTs, I'm not so sure that is the best call. This is the same situation we saw with Andres after shear lowered and with Blanca after it moved away from the area it upwelled.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS stronger and more NE so far.

[Yellow Evan]

The long-range intensity forecast is difficult. NHC has Carlos reaching 80kt in 96 hours and then beginning to weaken thereafter, presumably because of a drier environment. But with lower shear and continued warm SSTs, I'm not so sure that is the best call. This is the same situation we saw with Andres after shear lowered and with Blanca after it moved away from the area it upwelled.

Another wildcard could be SST upwelling due to its slwo motion, but OHC values are high enough to prevent it from being a major issue, given the fact that this is not suppose to stall. Dry air should not be a major issue assuming it has a core by then. Even though there will likely be fluctuations in intensity, I think there's enough time for be to think that at some point or another, we will have a major hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 5m5 minutes ago
One thing I will be watching with #Carlos is sneaky dry air lurking west - Very different than #Blanca

[cycloneye]

Up to 50kts.

EP, 03, 2015061200, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1004W, 50, 997, TS

[Kingarabian]

Convection seems to be covering the center. CDO should form soon if shear doesn't increase.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CARLOS EP032015 06/12/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 62 66 71 72 72 73 74 72 65 57
V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 62 66 71 72 72 73 74 72 65 57
V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 60 63 65 68 70 71 72 72 73 73 73
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 15 9 11 14 15 13 8 11 3 2 3 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 12 10 11 13 9 4 0 0 0 5 2
SHEAR DIR 26 25 40 56 42 52 39 41 21 354 60 114 98
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 159 159 159 158 157 157 158 157 151 145
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -50.8 -51.6 -50.8 -51.2 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 9 10 8 10 7 8 5 7
700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 73 72 71 72 69 66 62 62 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 21 22 24 22 21 21 22 20 17 13
850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 38 46 59 49 68 40 41 27 28 10 11
200 MB DIV 105 81 70 64 73 47 45 51 51 31 42 4 13
700-850 TADV 0 3 3 3 6 3 1 4 4 3 0 0 -1
LAND (KM) 267 258 250 237 224 206 218 218 202 196 206 211 219
LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.1
LONG(DEG W) 100.4 100.5 100.7 100.7 100.8 101.1 101.6 102.2 103.1 104.3 105.7 106.7 107.3
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 7 7 6 4
HEAT CONTENT 43 41 40 39 39 36 33 28 22 15 8 6 4

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 7. 6. 6. 7. 5. 1. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 22. 22. 23. 24. 22. 15. 7.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 03, 201506112308, 30, AMSU, IRP, , 1430N, 10043W, , 1, 59, 2, 985, 2, MEAS, 34, NEQ, 95, 92, 83, 86, , , , , 2, 55, , E, CIRA, JAK, , , , , , , 985, , NOAA18, 34, NEQ, 95, 92, 83, 86, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , , , , 2, storm center extrapolated from t=-12 and t=0 adeck
EP, 03, 201506112345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1440N, 10040W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JV, VIM, 3, 3035 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=3.0 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=3.0 FTBO DT
EP, 03, 201506112345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1420N, 10090W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AL, VI, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

50 knts appears like a decent estimate, given that ASCAT has consistently been lower than Dvorak.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Carlos is looking good and should become a Hurricane later this week as it nears Mexico. We should see what happens.



Synopsis for Carlos and other basins: http://goo.gl/QP4Syl

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Odd scene type.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2015 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 14:25:25 N Lon : 100:23:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 995.6mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -68.8C Cloud Region Temp : -56.0C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

Deep convection has expanded near the center of Carlos this
evening, but the overall appearance of the cloud pattern has not
changed much. The initial intensity has been nudged up to 50 kt, a
little below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The
intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with some moderate
shear expected to persist for the next couple of days. As a result,
only gradual intensification is forecast during this time, but
Carlos should still reach hurricane strength in a day or so. Some
additional strengthening is forecast through 72 hours, with a little
weakening shown late in the period as the cyclone begins to move
over somewhat cooler waters. The intensity guidance has trended a
bit downward this cycle, but the NHC forecast is largely an update
of the previous one and close to a consensus of the SHIPS, LGEM,
and HWRF. The GFDL is still considered an outlier due to land
interaction not shown in the official track forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 345/02, as Carlos has wobbled a bit
north-northwestward this evening based on the latest geostationary
and microwave satellite fixes. A slow north-northwestward to
northwestward motion is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours
while the steering currents remain weak. After that time, a deep-
layer ridge will amplify over the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
Mexico, which should result in Carlos moving more steadily west-
northwestward after 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the
northwest by day 5. While the NHC forecast still keeps the center
of Carlos offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, the forecast
track has been nudged a little to the right through 48 hours and
lies between the GFS, UKMET, and GEFS mean on the left and the ECMWF
and HWRF on the right. Later in the forecast, the NHC track is
largely an update of the previous one and is close to a blend of the
GFS and ECMWF.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from
Acapulco and Zihuatanejo since the updated forecast brings tropical
storm force winds very close to the coast in 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 14.5N 100.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 14.8N 100.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.0N 100.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 15.4N 101.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 19.2N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan