ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[northjaxpro]

Im not a professional Met, and read the disclimer below, but i think a very weak cat 1 is certainly not out of the question

Any developing tropical cyclone can pull a surprise or two and strengthen more than expected, and I have seen this quite often over the years. It is a possiblity, but if it picks up forward speed, this system likely will not have enough time to strengthen to a hurricane before reaching landfall, plus conditions are only marginally conducive at best IMO (dry air entrainment /shear) so I still expect this to attain TS status, but no more than 40 mph - 50 at best. Flooding rains will be the chief threat with this system. We will monitor closely of course. But, I will say that crazier things have happeneed and never say never with these tropical entities. They have a mind of their own for sure.

[chaser1]

By the way who is Doug? Really?

I plead my right to the 5th.

Joking. He is just a friend of Brian's, i'll take the storm2k disclaimer tho. It's worth watching for sure between the floods and/or rapid intensification. Not sure how it will play out.

Friends don't let friends, chase Tropical Depressions... LOL. Seriously though, I think upper air conditions are gonna make it a little tough for this system to organize that much in such a limited amount of time. I'm not sure where I see any models stalling 91L much and in spite of the 12Z CMC run joining the UK in dropping pressures prior to landfall, I'm just a bit skeptical that a legitimate T.S. (by true tropical definitions) will form prior to landfall. Then again, given the very significant flooding threat along with T.S. force winds in its E. semi-circle...., I suppose recon along with a few stations further south might well have some weak west winds just above the surface and eventually it'll be determined that a T.D. has formed. My own guess of where a weak center might be trying to form, could be around 23.5N and 91W. Looks to be quite a weather maker after landfall and as the pressure drops further over E. Oklahoma.

[psyclone]

This seems to be developing similarly to Debby in 2012 (and interestingly we also had a May landfall that year)

Debby unleashed 15" of rain on me...the biggest rainfall event I've personally observed and some areas actually fared worse. Most early season storm notoriety is a result of excessive rainfall.

[northjaxpro]

This seems to be developing similarly to Debby in 2012 (and interestingly we also had a May landfall that year)

Debby unleashed 15" of rain on me...the biggest rainfall event I've personally observed and some areas actually fared worse. Most early season storm notoriety is a result of excessive rainfall.

Yeah, Debby dropped 14 inches in Jax area in 2012, which happened on the heels of Beryl making landfall here a few weeks before.

[cycloneye]

Saved loop. It looks like is moving fast NW.

[SouthDadeFish]

Currently, 91L is not experiencing the most favorable conditions. Moderate shear is present as well as some dry air provided by the upper-level low. However, the 12Z GFS suggests the upper-level low weakens over the next 36 hours, probably via latent heat release associated with 91L. As a result, wind shear weakens and the mid-levels become more moist. The 12Z synoptic set up actually becomes relatively favorable near the time of landfall.

12Z GFS for 12Z Tuesday below. Mid-level moisture:



850 mb vorticity and 200 mb winds:



In fact, 91L enters the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak, which would further aid in upward vertical motion and more precipitation. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. Chances are it will be a gradual development process due to the current asymmetric state. However, if genesis can occur earlier than expected, the storm may be able to wrap up a little bit right before landfall. A weak to moderate tropical storm is still the most likely outcome, in my opinion.

Edit: My apologies if the mods feel this is more deserved for the models thread. Wasn't quite sure.

[chaser1]

This seems to be developing similarly to Debby in 2012 (and interestingly we also had a May landfall that year)

Debby unleashed 15" of rain on me...the biggest rainfall event I've personally observed and some areas actually fared worse. Most early season storm notoriety is a result of excessive rainfall.

F.Y.I...... for those Craigslist shoppers living near and just north of Corpus Christi seeking to purchase a used Kayak, Canoe, or John Boat....., i'd guess the price is about to soon go up significantly!

[smw1981]

I was thinking maybe it would have time to wrap up as it got closer to landfall once the environment became more favorable. I don't think it could make it to Hurricane status but maybe a decent TS.

Disclaimer: I am not a pro Met. This is just my opinion and should be treated as such.

[Hurricaneman]

I wonder if there is some kind of center NW of Cancun

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

I was thinking maybe it would have time to wrap up as it got closer to landfall once the environment became more favorable. I don't think it could make it to Hurricane status but maybe a decent TS.

Disclaimer: I am not a pro Met. This is just my opinion and should be treated as such.

I probably wouldn't bet on anything over 50mph but the flooding will be the issue as the landfall area can't handle anymore rain

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

I wonder if there is some kind of center NW of Cancun

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

We will find out soon as plane is flying now.

[HurriGuy]

I wonder if there is some kind of center NW of Cancun

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

seems impossible to tell. Hopefully recon helps

[Blinhart]

By the way who is Doug? Really?

I plead my right to the 5th.

Joking. He is just a friend of Brian's, i'll take the storm2k disclaimer tho. It's worth watching for sure between the floods and/or rapid intensification. Not sure how it will play out.

Friends don't let friends, chase Tropical Depressions... LOL. Seriously though, I think upper air conditions are gonna make it a little tough for this system to organize that much in such a limited amount of time. I'm not sure where I see any models stalling 91L much and in spite of the 12Z CMC run joining the UK in dropping pressures prior to landfall, I'm just a bit skeptical that a legitimate T.S. (by true tropical definitions) will form prior to landfall. Then again, given the very significant flooding threat along with T.S. force winds in its E. semi-circle...., I suppose recon along with a few stations further south might well have some weak west winds just above the surface and eventually it'll be determined that a T.D. has formed. My own guess of where a weak center might be trying to form, could be around 23.5N and 91W. Looks to be quite a weather maker after landfall and as the pressure drops further over E. Oklahoma.

My question does anyone remember Hurricane Humberto in 2007, went from a wave to a High end Cat 1 hurricane in less than 2 days.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-92&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

Convection firing, but is this near the center?

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Regarding Humberto (2007), my in-laws were at a party on the Bolivar Peninsula and within 3 hours it went from a TD to a Tropical Storm. They didn't know it until they left later that evening and by then it was well on its way to a hurricane. It did quite a bit of damage in extreme SE Texas.

[Sanibel]

GOM in early June is a different tropical environment than where this got going.

[Hurricaneman]

There also seems to be some kind of MLC at 24.8N 90W according to recon but is there a LLC there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ptarmigan]

My question does anyone remember Hurricane Humberto in 2007, went from a wave to a High end Cat 1 hurricane in less than 2 days.

Humberto went from tropical depression to hurricane in 24 hours! It was a small hurricane.

[Blinhart]

All I'm saying by mentioning Humberto (2007) is to never let your guard down when it comes to systems inside the GOM. I remember 2 days before Humberto formed no one was talking about a system being around and then that morning of landfall everyone was wondering if it was going to make Cat 2 strength, so anything can happen.

[Blinhart]

I will not be surprised if they decide to classify this as a TD at the next bulletin, for the oil companies and other companies to decide what they need to do with their employees and all the platforms.