WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

lol ADT center fix is off.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 021516

A. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR)

B. 02/1432Z

C. 15.38N

D. 145.48E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY W (-
0.5 ADJUSTMENT CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. PT AGREES WITH DT,
WHILE MET YIELDS A 4.5 WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1125Z 15.07N 145.98E MMHS


CHAPPOTIN

To me, this is a T6.0 w/ CMG ring.

[mrbagyo]

958 mb...It's falling like a meteor...

Wow Euro, I'm pretty sure that pressure drop would look very sexy in a barograph.

[Yellow Evan]

Pinhole eye storms are tough to classify, but this looks around 115 knots. If I was doing Dvorak, I'd get a T6.0.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Crazy RI

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 2 August 2015

<Analyses at 02/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E145°30'(145.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 03/03 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°20'(16.3°)
E143°10'(143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 03/15 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°10'(17.2°)
E141°00'(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E137°30'(137.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°00'(20.0°)
E133°35'(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

[Yellow Evan]

This storm is nearing T7.0. Eye needs to warm ever so slightly.

[1900hurricane]

The eye remains very vivid on Guam radar even as it moves further away.

[Dave C]

That's quite impressive over 100 miles from radar site! When sun comes up later on we will see what damage this brought to Saipan. Population as of 2010 was about 80,000. I think you can see a moat forming on that radar loop, possibly ready for a replacement cycle.

[1900hurricane]

Cloud tops are warming to some degree, but I can't place a reason at the moment. Might just be temporary, but too early tell.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=WP132015&starting_image=2015WP13_4KMSRBDC_201508021130.jpg&ending_image=2015WP13_4KMSRBDC_201508021630.jpg

[Yellow Evan]

Looks around 120 knts to me.

This is worthy of a T6.0 or T6.5 on BD depends on frame you select.

[Dave C]

That dark green ring forming away from the eye seems to be the outer eyewall forming. a microwave image will clarify that. Also intense band raking Saipan is feeding into it.Also, pressure at Anderson air base on northern Guam has dropped to 999 mb, could be due to larger eyewall forming. Just a thought

[euro6208]

Still displaying that pinhole eye...

[Kingarabian]

120kts in my mind.

[euro6208]

Up to 105 knots!

13W SOUDELOR 150802 1800 15.6N 145.0E WPAC 105 944

Still low in my mind...

[Yellow Evan]

Classic pinhole structure. Eye slowly warming, but CDO looks ragged and broken now. ERC probs starting as they usually start early in pinhole storms. We'll see how long this takes.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 AUG 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:40:13 N Lon : 144:54:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 984.8mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.4 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.2C Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 78km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.4 degrees

[Kingarabian]

This thing is dangerously beautiful and only 7 pages. Must be business as usual in the western Pacific.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Sucks...The weather equipment in Saipan was knocked out before the eye made landfall. The highest winds prior to losing the sensor was 91 mph...

[Yellow Evan]

This thing is dangerously beautiful and only 7 pages. Must be business as usual in the western Pacific.

It just bombed out. It's usual business, but it's still amazing.