EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical

[Ntxw]

[Kingarabian]

Love these type of storms. No need to worry about track and lands. Just sit back, and enjoy the show.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks 135-140, but with lag, probs 110-115.

[Ntxw]

Decided to pull up a comparison with Marie, just because I really liked that storm

Marie


Jimena, give it just some more hours and probably will be similar.

[Yellow Evan]

Jimena is getting close to looking 140 worthy (don't think the actual winds are quite there yet). Needs thicker convection on the S side.

Doing Dvorak, I'm getting a T6.5 but could see a T6.0 or T7.0.

[Kingarabian]

But expect it to get even stronger. It saddened me that Marie fell apart as fast as it peaked.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Jimena is getting close to looking 140 worthy (don't think the actual winds are quite there yet). Needs thicker convection on the S side.

Doing Dvorak, I'm getting a T6.5 but could see a T6.0 or T7.0.

I'm not going to say 135-140kt worthy until the grays fully wrap and microwave structure improves.

[Ntxw]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 12:20:38 N Lon : 123:48:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 948.0mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.7 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +9.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Low res ATMS:

[Kingarabian]

I don't know if it went through an ERC or something but the eyewall is not defined well right now for it to be anything more than a 120kts.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Jimena is getting close to looking 140 worthy (don't think the actual winds are quite there yet). Needs thicker convection on the S side.

Doing Dvorak, I'm getting a T6.5 but could see a T6.0 or T7.0.

I'm not going to say 135-140kt worthy until the grays fully wrap and microwave structure improves.

http://i.imgur.com/WqeZRt5.gif

You don't need gray's for a Cat 5 to happen.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Jimena is getting close to looking 140 worthy (don't think the actual winds are quite there yet). Needs thicker convection on the S side.

Doing Dvorak, I'm getting a T6.5 but could see a T6.0 or T7.0.

I'm not going to say 135-140kt worthy until the grays fully wrap and microwave structure improves.

http://i.imgur.com/WqeZRt5.gif

You don't need gray's for a Cat 5 to happen.

Andres had a full ring of grays and no Cat.5 reading.

[Yellow Evan]

Andres had a full ring of grays and no Cat.5 reading.

In that case, it's CDO wasn't thick enough, which hurt it's Dvorak readings.

[CrazyC83]

Given the post-synoptic lag and recent changes, I'd say 110 or 115 kt for the advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

ZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 124.2W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 124.2W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 123.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.3N 136.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.3N 139.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 141.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 124.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


NNNN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Jimena is rapidly intensifying. Conventional satellite imagery
shows that the hurricane's well-defined eye has warmed and
contracted since the last advisory. Its central dense overcast,
consisting of very cold cloud top temperatures, has also become
increasingly more symmetric. Aside from Jimena's core features,
outer bands surrounding the cyclone have also increased and become
better defined. Dvorak classifications were T5.5/102 kt from TAFB
and SAB at 0000 UTC and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value is 6.2/120 kt.
A blend of these data are used to arrive at an intensity estimate of
110 kt, making Jimena the fourth major hurricane of the season.

The initial motion estimate is 275/10, although the cyclone appears
to have recently experienced a southward trochoidal wobble. Directly
underneath a subtropical ridge to the north, Jimena should maintain
a general westward course for the next 12 to 24 hours. After that
time, Jimena's heading should become west-northwestward as it nears
a break in this ridge around 140W, created by a mid-level trough
extending southwestward from California. A significant decrease in
forward speed is likely after 96 hours when the cyclone reaches the
weakness around 140W. The track guidance is tightly clustered
through 3 days and is only slightly divergent after that time, with
the multi-model consensus trending southward during the last 24
hours from days 3 to 5. The new track forecast has been nudged
slightly southward in the short term and a little bit more in the
extended range, following the trend in the guidance.

The rapid intensification phase that Jimena is undergoing is likely
to continue in the short term while it encounters relatively light
shear and moves over anomalously high oceanic heat content. These
very conducive large-scale factors for intensification suggest that
Jimena should reach a peak intensity of near category 5 strength in
about 24 hours or so. The hurricane could remain around its peak
intensity through 48 hours, even though SHIPS model output shows
some drying of the lower to middle troposphere along Jimena's
track. However, it should be noted that intense hurricanes such as
Jimena frequently experience eyewall replacements that can cause
fluctuations in intensity, and their occurrence and evolution are
nearly impossible to predict. After about 2 days, a slow decay is
forecast since oceanic and atmospheric conditions will only
gradually become less conducive. Jimena's continued strenghtening
has required an upward adjustment of the intensity forecast in the
short term, and the new forecast is in excellent agreement with the
statistical guidance as well as the FSU Superensemble output. The
new forecast then trends toward the multi-model consensus from days
3 to 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 12.3N 124.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 12.5N 125.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 16.3N 136.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 17.3N 139.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 18.0N 141.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 12:14:41 N Lon : 123:53:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 943.8mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 12:15:28 N Lon : 123:58:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 941.7mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +9.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Beautiful looking storm. Gustav is the last time I remember seeing something like this over on the Atlantic side. Been a long time.

[Yellow Evan]

Beautiful looking storm. Gustav is the last time I remember seeing something like this over on the Atlantic side. Been a long time.

Igor? That was 135 knots.