ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#121 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:12 pm

gatorcane wrote:The naked swirl looks to have turned even more SW. Quite interesting indeed. If that is what the NHC is tracking, it is not following their track so far.

I think that swirl is looping counterclockwise and will soon move south then southeast in order to gey back under the convection. I.e. the center is probably reconsolidating.

#122 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:13 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281807
AF307 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 24 20150928
175800 2754N 07034W 8271 01721 0074 +172 +156 034018 018 016 001 00
175830 2753N 07032W 8272 01719 0073 +174 +151 037018 018 016 000 00
175900 2752N 07031W 8272 01718 0073 +173 +153 033017 018 016 000 00
175930 2751N 07029W 8274 01717 0073 +170 +160 039017 018 018 000 00
180000 2750N 07028W 8272 01718 0073 +170 +161 041017 018 017 000 00
180030 2749N 07026W 8272 01717 0072 +170 +163 043017 018 017 000 00
180100 2748N 07025W 8273 01715 0070 +171 +163 044017 018 019 000 00
180130 2747N 07023W 8275 01712 //// +170 //// 042018 019 021 001 01
180200 2746N 07022W 8273 01715 //// +165 //// 035018 019 022 001 01
180230 2745N 07020W 8270 01717 //// +171 //// 034017 018 016 000 01
180300 2744N 07019W 8274 01712 0064 +175 +154 036018 019 017 000 00
180330 2743N 07017W 8273 01712 0065 +175 +159 036019 020 017 000 00
180400 2742N 07016W 8274 01711 0063 +176 +157 038019 021 015 001 00
180430 2741N 07014W 8274 01710 0062 +176 +157 037019 020 016 000 00
180500 2740N 07013W 8272 01711 0062 +176 +154 040019 020 017 000 00
180530 2739N 07011W 8273 01710 0059 +179 +153 043020 020 019 000 00
180600 2739N 07010W 8272 01708 0058 +176 +165 044020 020 019 000 00
180630 2738N 07008W 8270 01702 0047 +177 +172 043020 020 020 000 01
180700 2737N 07007W 8274 01701 0045 +180 +176 046019 019 021 000 01
180730 2736N 07005W 8273 01698 0031 +184 +180 050018 019 023 000 01
$$
;

#123 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:14 pm

The 12Z ECMWF at 96 hours has this thing stalling and intensifying just east of the Bahamas. :eek:

Looks to be merging with another system?

LarryWx · #124 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:15 pm

Wow, Gator. I just saw the 96 hour 12Z Euro. It is 500 miles SSW of its 0Z 108 hour position and 9 mb stronger at 993 mb!

Edit: ninja'ed lol

#125 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:16 pm

GFDL and HWRF are on crack, sending a severe hurricane into the Northeast. HWRF especially blows it up to 930mb...

LarryWx · #126 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:19 pm

That system to the east on the Euro 96 hour is from the remnants of Ida!!

#127 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:19 pm

Very interesting movement of the LLC indeed, it will be interesting if it gets back under the MLC.

LarryWx · #128 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:20 pm

It looks like the 12Z Euro is fixing to slam the NE US. Let's see.

#129 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:20 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281818
AF307 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20150928
180800 2735N 07004W 8271 01691 0028 +190 +183 053016 018 024 001 00
180830 2733N 07003W 8274 01695 0034 +190 +180 057016 017 024 000 00
180900 2732N 07002W 8274 01695 0029 +198 +174 061013 015 023 000 00
180930 2731N 07001W 8272 01695 0023 +206 +169 074006 011 018 000 00
181000 2729N 06959W 8274 01694 0025 +202 +179 149006 008 011 000 00
181030 2728N 06958W 8273 01695 //// +188 //// 159008 009 016 002 01
181100 2727N 06957W 8272 01699 0038 +185 +181 202006 008 016 002 01
181130 2725N 06956W 8275 01696 //// +174 //// 215007 009 013 000 01
181200 2724N 06955W 8272 01701 //// +165 //// 220010 011 016 001 01
181230 2723N 06953W 8275 01701 //// +160 //// 210009 012 014 000 01
181300 2722N 06952W 8272 01705 //// +168 //// 188007 009 013 000 01
181330 2721N 06951W 8272 01705 0056 +172 +170 227008 008 010 000 01
181400 2720N 06949W 8275 01704 0057 +172 +168 232007 008 008 000 01
181430 2718N 06948W 8272 01706 0059 +171 +165 228006 007 008 000 00
181500 2717N 06947W 8273 01705 0058 +170 +158 237006 007 007 001 00
181530 2716N 06945W 8274 01705 0059 +172 +153 240006 007 008 000 00
181600 2715N 06944W 8273 01705 0059 +170 +161 245005 006 008 000 00
181630 2714N 06943W 8273 01706 0062 +165 +160 239006 007 008 000 01
181700 2712N 06941W 8274 01705 0062 +167 +161 237007 007 008 000 00
181730 2711N 06940W 8274 01705 0061 +169 +163 240007 007 009 000 01
$$
;

Pressure 1002mb. No strong winds yet though, maybe in the convection.

#130 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:21 pm

The Euro turns it sharply NNE and really intensifies it by hour 120.

#131 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:24 pm

BTW, recon just went through the LLC, barely TD force winds, I am sure they will find stronger winds near the MLC.

Hammy · #132 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:24 pm

Euro making a run at a fifth phantom major? :lol:

I'd personally go with the GFS on this, dissipating it in 72 hours. Seems the most realistic.

Pressure is lower than I would've expected, about 1002mb, though it could be meaningless intensity-wise with the center that far from the convection.

#133 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:29 pm

Euro hits Virginia with a hurricane on this run in a "Sandy-esque" like track where it gets blocked from being ejected out to sea, only further south this time.

#134 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:32 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281827
AF307 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20150928
181800 2710N 06939W 8272 01707 0062 +167 +165 248008 008 010 001 01
181830 2709N 06937W 8272 01706 //// +154 //// 255010 011 018 003 01
181900 2708N 06936W 8274 01704 0075 +169 //// 264010 011 022 008 01
181930 2706N 06935W 8282 01696 //// +151 //// 261010 011 017 003 01
182000 2705N 06933W 8274 01704 //// +159 //// 245010 011 019 001 01
182030 2704N 06932W 8277 01701 //// +164 //// 258012 013 019 001 01
182100 2703N 06931W 8272 01706 //// +165 //// 262011 011 020 000 01
182130 2702N 06929W 8274 01704 //// +165 //// 272009 010 021 000 01
182200 2700N 06928W 8275 01705 //// +164 //// 277009 010 023 000 01
182230 2659N 06927W 8274 01705 //// +162 //// 276009 010 025 001 01
182300 2658N 06925W 8272 01707 //// +160 //// 284008 009 026 000 01
182330 2657N 06924W 8275 01705 //// +152 //// 278009 010 027 001 01
182400 2656N 06923W 8274 01708 //// +152 //// 278010 012 029 000 01
182430 2654N 06921W 8270 01714 //// +160 //// 282009 011 027 001 01
182500 2653N 06920W 8268 01719 //// +164 //// 278012 013 027 000 01
182530 2652N 06918W 8271 01712 //// +151 //// 283013 013 027 001 01
182600 2651N 06917W 8274 01711 //// +148 //// 252006 012 025 003 01
182630 2649N 06916W 8273 01711 //// +142 //// 200003 004 022 003 01
182700 2648N 06914W 8270 01714 //// +147 //// 206006 006 023 004 01
182730 2647N 06913W 8268 01716 //// +146 //// 226008 009 025 004 01
$$
;

#135 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:38 pm

The LLC is now moving SSW (look at the naked swirl to the NW of the blob of clouds). It looks to be trying to connect with the mid-level circulation. If this happens, watch out, this thing could start cranking up as the ECMWF and UKMET are showing.

TheStormExpert · #136 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:45 pm

This thing looks to currently be a completely decoupled mess. Story of the season "Shear & Decoupled TC's".

#137 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:46 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281841
AF307 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20150928
182800 2646N 06912W 8274 01710 //// +148 //// 241011 012 023 004 01
182830 2645N 06910W 8274 01711 //// +146 //// 248012 013 023 004 01
182900 2644N 06909W 8275 01712 0091 +154 //// 207012 013 023 005 01
182930 2642N 06908W 8271 01714 0093 +147 //// 180013 014 024 003 01
183000 2641N 06907W 8278 01710 0095 +159 //// 181013 014 020 006 01
183030 2640N 06905W 8268 01719 //// +151 //// 165009 011 019 003 01
183100 2639N 06904W 8274 01712 //// +157 //// 184009 012 019 001 01
183130 2638N 06903W 8271 01713 //// +148 //// 219016 017 018 001 01
183200 2637N 06902W 8274 01711 //// +155 //// 208009 015 018 002 01
183230 2636N 06900W 8274 01708 0069 +164 +159 198011 012 020 002 00
183300 2634N 06859W 8274 01707 0067 +162 +157 188010 011 020 002 00
183330 2633N 06858W 8273 01712 0072 +165 +155 190009 010 021 001 00
183400 2632N 06857W 8272 01710 0071 +157 +156 217009 009 022 002 01
183430 2631N 06855W 8277 01702 //// +153 //// 225015 017 023 002 01
183500 2630N 06854W 8272 01708 //// +146 //// 229019 020 024 001 01
183530 2629N 06853W 8274 01716 //// +151 //// 225020 020 025 001 01
183600 2627N 06851W 8275 01724 //// +153 //// 228019 020 025 002 01
183630 2626N 06850W 8278 01724 0096 +161 +157 220020 021 026 002 00
183700 2625N 06849W 8274 01729 //// +151 //// 218020 023 026 004 01
183730 2624N 06847W 8273 01730 //// +154 //// 219021 024 025 001 01
$$
;

#138 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:46 pm

live visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-69&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=gray

LarryWx · #139 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:47 pm

It is time to throw out the most recent NHC track now. The LLC is now at 27.4 N and headed SSW toward 27N. It may even get toward 26.5 N tonight!
The NHC had it at 28.1N as of 8 PM EDT!

#140 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:47 pm

I am really looking forward to the NHC discussion at 5pm EST with this SW movement which is completely off the NHC track and also the new model guidance which is significantly westward and much more bullish.

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