EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

ADT stable

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 9:42:49 N Lon : 135:28:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 986.4mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.1 4.1

Center Temp : -72.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

[Kingarabian]

looks like a decent west shift in the MU

Probably going to windshield wipe for a bit. Euro will be interesting.

@ 240 hours out, Euro and GFS almost completely in line moving this NW above Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015

The overall satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed
since the previous advisory. The ragged eye that was seen in the
last few visible satellite pictures has not become apparent in
overnight infrared images, but recent microwave data have indicated
the presence of a small well-defined eye. Objective and subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates still support an initial wind
speed of 85 kt. Olaf is expected to remain over warm water and in a
low vertical wind shear environment during the next several days.
These factors favor intensification and Olaf is expected to become a
major hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time,
some additional strengthening is forecast, but fluctuations in
intensity are likely due to eyewall cycles. The new NHC forecast is
unchanged from the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of
the intensity guidance, closest to the SHIPS/LGEM models. Some
gradual weakening is shown at days 4 and 5 when Olaf moves over
slightly cooler waters and into an area of drier mid-level air.

Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Olaf is moving
westward or 280/10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains
unchanged, as Olaf is expected to move around the southwestern
and western portions of a deep-layer subtropical ridge during the
next several days. The hurricane is forecast to turn west-
northwestward later today before it moves into the Central Pacific
basin tonight. A northwestward motion is expected in 2 to 3 days,
and a turn toward the north should occur late in the period when
Olaf nears a break in the ridge along 145W. The new NHC track is
similar to the previous advisory through 72 hours, but has been
adjusted westward at days 4 and 5 to be closer to the latest
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 10.0N 136.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 10.3N 137.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 10.8N 139.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 11.4N 141.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 12.3N 142.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 14.3N 144.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Alyono]

MU flipping on each model run

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's well on it's way to Cat. 4. Eye just needs to clear out a bit more. Thick massive ring of -80C cloud tops circling the eye.

[Kingarabian]

MU flipping on each model run

Just a bad handle on the storm right now from all the models as a whole. Late season storm where steering is typically a sharp recurve.

Look how bad model verification has been (image from WeatherUnderground):

[Kingarabian]

Here we go; raw's shooting up:

Code: Select all

  UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  19 OCT 2015    Time :   103000 UTC
      Lat :    9:55:15 N     Lon :  136:52:21 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.6 / 981.3mb/ 79.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.6     4.6     6.9

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -46.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

 Scene Type : EYE 

[NotoSans]

Eye clearing out. Expect to see a major soon. Pretty sure that it could reach cat 4 strength.

[Kingarabian]

Eye clearing out. Expect to see a major soon. Pretty sure that it could reach cat 4 strength.

Barring the eye getting filled and current trends halting, I expect it to be a cat.4 by the next advisory. We may even see a rare EPAC special advisory.

SAB and TAFB estimates are going to be interesting.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Let me see. SAB is limited to 5.5 due to constraints while TAFB is limited to 6.0. However, structure wise this isn't great, but we have a small maybe pinhole eye evident and one half of a thick CDO.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  19 OCT 2015    Time :   113000 UTC
      Lat :    9:51:37 N     Lon :  137:01:24 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.7 / 979.4mb/ 82.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.7     5.7     6.9

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

 Center Temp : -25.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -76.0C

 Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ29 KNES 191223
TCSENP

A. 19E (OLAF)

B. 19/1200Z

C. 9.9N

D. 137.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS LG EYE EMBEDDED IN B FOR AN E# OF 5.5. EYE
SURROUNDED BY W RING YIELDS NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT IS 5.5. MET IS 5.0
AND PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[Yellow Evan]

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201510191200,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1000N, 13710W,      , 1,  90, 2,  970, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB,  JA,    I, 1, 5050 /////,      ,   , GOES15,  CSC, T, Small eye feature noted.; ADT Final T-no and CI=4.7


Code: Select all

EP, 19, 2015101912,   , BEST,   0, 100N, 1372W,  95,  970, HU,  34, NEQ,   90,  120,   50,   70, 1010,  240,  10,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,       OLAF, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 033,
EP, 19, 2015101912,   , BEST,   0, 100N, 1372W,  95,  970, HU,  50, NEQ,   40,   50,   30,   40, 1010,  240,  10,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,       OLAF, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 033,
EP, 19, 2015101912,   , BEST,   0, 100N, 1372W,  95,  970, HU,  64, NEQ,   20,   15,   10,   10, 1010,  240,  10,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,       OLAF, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 033,

[supercane]

WTPZ34 KNHC 191447
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015

...OLAF NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 137.7W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2160 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
<rest omitted>

WTPZ44 KNHC 191450
TCDEP4

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015

A small eye is now apparent in infrared imagery, and the coverage
and symmetry of the cold cloud tops has improved during the past few
hours. The initial intensity is set to 100 kt based on the latest
Dvorak classification of T5.5/102 kt from SAB, making Olaf the 6th
major hurricane in the eastern North Pacific this year. This is the
farthest south that a major hurricane has formed in the basin since
reliable records began in 1971.

Further strengthening appears likely in the next day or so, and in
fact the SHIPS RI index shows a 44 percent chance of a 25-kt
increase in the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted upward to account for the observed strengthening, and shows
a peak of 125 kt in 24 hours. Little change in intensity is then
shown through 48 hours, however, there could be fluctuations in
intensity due to eyewall cycles during this time that are not
represented in the forecast. Later in the period, gradual weakening
should begin as Olaf moves over slightly cooler waters into a
somewhat drier environment. The new NHC forecast is above the
guidance in the first 24 hours and close to the latest SHIPS model
prediction thereafter.

Olaf continues to move westward, with an initial motion of 280/12.
This continues a trend of a motion that has been a little faster and
to the left of much of the guidance and the NHC forecast. While the
track forecast reasoning has not changed, with Olaf expected to
gradually turn northward through the forecast period as the ridge to
the north erodes, the guidance envelope has continued to shift
westward this cycle. In fact, the multi-model consensus has shifted
westward by about 2 degrees compared to 24 hours ago at days 4 and
5. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left this
cycle by 60 to 90 n mi at days 2 through 5. The NHC track is now on
the left side of the guidance envelope and closer to the UKMET
model, which has been the best performing track model so far for
Olaf.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 9.9N 137.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 10.2N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 10.8N 140.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 11.4N 142.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 12.2N 144.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 14.0N 146.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 16.7N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 19.5N 147.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

CDO becoming more organized and a CMG ring is present. Eye is small, so this won't last long. However, this is likely around 105 knots IMO. Eye needs to warm if it wants to get beyond low-end Cat 4.

[Alyono]

keeps going south of the guidance.

I wonder if south of Hawaii will eventually come into play

[Yellow Evan]

keeps going south of the guidance.

I wonder if south of Hawaii will eventually come into play

Given the ridge over Hawaii, maybe, especially if it weakens steadily.

[Alyono]

keeps going south of the guidance.

I wonder if south of Hawaii will eventually come into play

Given the ridge over Hawaii, maybe, especially if it weakens steadily.

if it stays westward, I don't see much weakening. The weakening is assuming it moves north of Hawaii into higher shear

[1900hurricane]

Starting to get some vis.

[Kingarabian]

keeps going south of the guidance.

I wonder if south of Hawaii will eventually come into play

Given the ridge over Hawaii, maybe, especially if it weakens steadily.

if it stays westward, I don't see much weakening. The weakening is assuming it moves north of Hawaii into higher shear

Kilo 2.0? Granted that storm was simply too weak to feel any troughs.

But I think it HAS to turn north eventually. Even the ensembles show it.