ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Bocadude85]

The 12z GFS and Euro would bring some pretty nasty weather to South Florida. The Euro misses the coast by 50 miles.

Majority of the nasty weather in TC's I thought was on the North and East sides?

Well the GFS has landfall in South Florida so the weather would certainly be nasty. And I would assume that a hurricane passing 50 miles or less offshore would provide some sort of inclement weather.

[hurricaneCW]

That's a very sharp east turn, makes me wonder if it'll eventually perform a loop back to the NW.

[Hammy]

Erika should be showing up in the 4km NAM runs in the next day or two which should be interesting due to the higher resolution.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

And that is not to say the models will not swing back west again, way to early to say it will miss.

[SFLcane]

@RaleighWx: BIg trend east with the 12z AEMN (GFS ENS) compared with prev 3 runs. #Erika http://t.co/FGsY58Hv4Q

[tolakram]

For 5 days Erika will be churning off the east coast if this run is true. ACE.

Final frame.

[alienstorm]

Just a point the 18z models initiated north of where Erika is currently 16.2 ns 15.6 and a iittle further east as well. 58.1 vs. 58.4

[AutoPenalti]

At this point I'm not trusting any model consensus until Thursday afternoon.

[Weatherboy1]

So basically with those ensemble forecasts, what's left of Erika could end up in Oklahoma ... or the North Atlantic! Gotta love THAT helpful guidance. LOL. In all seriousness, though, if we get a continuation of the shift to the east in the overnight model cycle, I'll feel a lot better here in South FL. But not latching on to that solution just yet.

Just the opinion of a semi-educated amateur; listen to the experts!

[TheStormExpert]

Anyone have the latest 12z Euro Ensembles?

[gatorcane]

Yes I agree, we need another cycle or two of an east shift and will start feeling much better. Still let's not forget the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF is still into SE Florida or very close to Palm Beach County area. By no means are we "in the clear" here at all.

Not looking good either way for folks in the Bahamas.

[BucMan2]

Has there ever been a situation where the models have had a huge change and then changed back?

[TheStormExpert]

Yes I agree, we need another cycle or two of an east shift and will start feeling much better. Not looking good either way for folks in the Bahamas.

Yeah, the Euro currently is the only model showing that shortwave eroding the ridge to the north.

[tolakram]

Has there ever been a situation where the models have had a huge change and then changed back?

All the time. Usually after 3 runs in the same general direction you have an idea they are sniffing out reality, but sometimes they just windshield wiper back and forth, especially if the upper air conditions are complex.

[gatorcane]

240 hour ECMWF. Note new Cape Verde system to the east.

[NDG]

The 18z models have spoken FL is in clear j/k

[Stormcenter]

2005 and 2009

Has there ever been a situation where the models have had a huge change and then changed back?

[stormlover2013]

yeah tola totally agree, that trough is going to play a big factor, euro had the trough weak on 00 run and so did gfs but euro and gfs run with the 12 run has it has a pretty strong trough so thats why the models flipped

[Blown Away]

2005 and 2009

Has there ever been a situation where the models have had a huge change and then changed back?

OMG, so many examples... They will continue flopping, they always do when you are looking at >100 hours out...

[Kohlecane]

NOTICED THIS WHEN LOOKING AT ERIKA ... KINDA OFF TOPIC AND ITS THE GFS IN LA LA LAND BUT CHECK OUT WHAT SHOWES UP OF THE COAST OF GA/SC AT 384HR
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php