Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

Yeah I suppose it is subjective, if you were to use the pure stats the CMC last year was better, but I've given reasons why that was the case last year based on extensive studying over the years and actual known facts that at least the GFS *does* overdo troughs (take a look at the NOAA site, its on there somewhere, the GFS overdoes cold shots past 84hrs.) and from what I've observed in the past the CMC is very similar....meanwhile the ECM does appear to be too westerly at times for balance.

As for what I said, I'm just repeating what I've seen in many different places and including here, can't argue that it did extremely well with Alex, far better then the GFS based models anyway. Most people rate the Euro highly and I'm pretty sure it was by far the best model in 2008...

[ROCK]

The Euro is widely known as being the best model of them all...the problem last year was it was a strong El nino year...and the troughy models nearly always perform better in those years...

What we saw with Alex and the GFS/CMC bneing too far north will repeat itself more then once more I reckon this year, just like it did with 2007.

As you say there is going to be a weakening of the ridge BUT global patterns strongly support the ridge still being a major factor this August, but perhaps not quite as dominant as it was in the first half of July when asll the waves were shunted well south. Who knows whether a weakness places itself right for the E.Coast, I'd argue there is a decent chance it will at least once more this season but it all depends whether anything is about to make the msot of it

That statement is purely subjective KWT. You can not back it up with facts. I would suggest you avoid misinformation.


Provided is the NHC's official take on the EURO model. Note that it is the most expensive.

European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Model

Developed and maintained by an international organization supported by 28 European member states, the ECMWF model is the most sophisticated and computationally expensive of all the operational global models currently used by NHC. The ECMWF system provides forecasts out to 240 hours at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. Some of the specifications of the model are noted in Table 2. Due to the model.s complexity/resolution, data assimilation, and the operational requirements of the member states, the ECMWF model is among the latest-arriving dynamical model guidance to NHC. The ECMWF, like the GFS and NOGAPS, is a spectral model that calculates parameters using spherical harmonics instead of grid points.

Dude, what are you talking about misinformation? and what is the ECM cost have anything to do with it? you have been doing this all year long.... How about taking a break and we will see you next invest...

[ROCK]

Yeah I suppose it is subjective, if you were to use the pure stats the CMC last year was better, but I've given reasons why that was the case last year based on extensive studying over the years and actual known facts that at least the GFS *does* overdo troughs (take a look at the NOAA site, its on there somewhere, the GFS overdoes cold shots past 84hrs.) and from what I've observed in the past the CMC is very similar....meanwhile the ECM does appear to be too westerly at times for balance.

As for what I said, I'm just repeating what I've seen in many different places and including here, can't argue that it did extremely well with Alex, far better then the GFS based models anyway. Most people rate the Euro highly and I'm pretty sure it was by far the best model in 2008...

IMO, the ECM does very well once it has a system fully developed. As we saw with Bonnie it had a hard time with it being so small and center relocations. To be fair though, all the other models did not see center relos either.....subjective or not its hard to go against the ECM once we a fully center...

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah I suppose it is subjective, if you were to use the pure stats the CMC last year was better, but I've given reasons why that was the case last year based on extensive studying over the years and actual known facts that at least the GFS *does* overdo troughs (take a look at the NOAA site, its on there somewhere, the GFS overdoes cold shots past 84hrs.) and from what I've observed in the past the CMC is very similar....meanwhile the ECM does appear to be too westerly at times for balance.

As for what I said, I'm just repeating what I've seen in many different places and including here, can't argue that it did extremely well with Alex, far better then the GFS based models anyway. Most people rate the Euro highly and I'm pretty sure it was by far the best model in 2008...

IMO, the ECM does very well once it has a system fully developed. As we saw with Bonnie it had a hard time with it being so small and center relocations. To be fair though, all the other models did not see center relos either.....subjective or not its hard to go against the ECM once we a fully center...

I only worry about the model consensus. NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER a single model. Regardless of what it is.

[KWT]

Model consensus was awful with Alex's track but was very good with Bonnie so its all swings and roundabouts. Consensus is certaimnly helpful but at times you do need to break from it IMO...

[Weatherfreak000]

Model consensus was awful with Alex's track but was very good with Bonnie so its all swings and roundabouts. Consensus is certaimnly helpful but at times you do need to break from it IMO...

The model consensus can tend to be poor initially. The same can be said of Bonnie in it's initial stages of development. This is a common trend in cyclogenesis as i'm sure you know KWT you are very knowledgeable. Weak storms are subject to all sorts of minor behaviors such as wobbles, center reformations, bullied by ULL, etc.. all of these factors can greatly change the track.

Remember initial track for Bonnie? WGOM...potential for Cuba landfall or under the Florida Straits. Alex? The tip of the Yucatan Peninsula followed by the Central GOM.


There's a reason when a storm forms and shows landfall somewhere a member from that area jokes now they know the storm isn't coming. It tends to be true.

[KWT]

ECM not really showing much going on, a moderate wave comes off Africa but thats about it...

[tolakram]

Every damn thread I visit it's another euro argument. Seriously, just shut up. Am I coming off as exasperated here?

How about we simply discuss the long range models without getting in to who thinks what is best?

[cycloneye]

Yes for that. I think is enough all of these model wars that go anywhere other than antagonize people.

[StormClouds63]

Appears like the next 10-14 days will be quiet. Hostile upper level environment in the Atlantic basin. Dry SAL air as well.

Colin won't appear until at least August 10.

[Weatherfreak000]

If people started paying more attention to the model CONSENSUS, as opposed to the individual model runs, this would be a non-issue.

[KWT]

Appears like the next 10-14 days will be quiet. Hostile upper level environment in the Atlantic basin. Dry SAL air as well.

Colin won't appear until at least August 10.

To be fair Bonie was in a pretty terrible set-up, the upper set-up looks a little better on the models then it was for Bonnie...

That being said I think the models aren't really showing anything of real note for the next week.

As for the model war, we can't bury our heads in the sand IMO, it is worthwhile trying to know what models have what biases and this is the sort of thread where such disucssion is valid, I'd rather have it here then on every TC's model page where information is more important.

[Macrocane]

Appears like the next 10-14 days will be quiet. Hostile upper level environment in the Atlantic basin. Dry SAL air as well.

Colin won't appear until at least August 10.

Well there's a thread about the reduction in the SAL on the last few days, I think there will be one more big SAL outbreak on the next 7-10 days after that the environment will be better consequence of a negative NAO, then we could see our first Cape Verde storm (not necessary a major CV hurricane) as the GFS has been showing.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm pretty sure we'll see Colin before August 10. I said between August 2-5 in another thread. I also think that the 2nd half of August will feature 3-4 named storms with one or two of those being hurricanes.

[BigA]

It looks to me like in the 10-15 day period we'll see a favorable MJO setup over the eastern Atlantic, combined with a reduction in SAL. I think this is why the GFS is showing two Cape Verde storms develop in the extreme long range (10-16 days). These storms are fantasies, but they do show that the GFS predicts favorable Atlantic conditions in the 1.5 to 2 week range.

[lonelymike]

Every damn thread I visit it's another euro argument. Seriously, just shut up. Am I coming off as exasperated here?

How about we simply discuss the long range models without getting in to who thinks what is best?

Grace under pressure ....try it sometime

[lonelymike]

It looks to me like in the 10-15 day period we'll see a favorable MJO setup over the eastern Atlantic, combined with a reduction in SAL. I think this is why the GFS is showing two Cape Verde storms develop in the extreme long range (10-16 days). These storms are fantasies, but they do show that the GFS predicts favorable Atlantic conditions in the 1.5 to 2 week range.

Does MJO really have that much to do with storm formation in a La Nina year?

[BigA]

It looks to me like in the 10-15 day period we'll see a favorable MJO setup over the eastern Atlantic, combined with a reduction in SAL. I think this is why the GFS is showing two Cape Verde storms develop in the extreme long range (10-16 days). These storms are fantasies, but they do show that the GFS predicts favorable Atlantic conditions in the 1.5 to 2 week range.

Does MJO really have that much to do with storm formation in a La Nina year?

I may be 100% off base, but I believe that the MJO still matters during a La Nina/El Nino year, but that during La Nina and El Nino years, the MJO does not continuously move around the world, but rather moves much less predictably and more chaotically. Therefore, maybe the MJO predictions I cited above are off, but I think the MJO still matters.

If a pro met or anyone more learned would like to correct me, I would appreciate it.

[SouthFloridawx]

If people started paying more attention to the model CONSENSUS, as opposed to the individual model runs, this would be a non-issue.

That's why I thought there was a possibility for Bonnie to form. One way or another, (edit: a few of the models) showed a lowered area of pressure around the same place, give or take a couple hundred miles. You have to look for some kind of consensus.

[Steve]

>>I may be 100% off base, but I believe that the MJO still matters during a La Nina/El Nino year, but that during La Nina and El Nino years, the MJO does not continuously move around the world, but rather moves much less predictably and more chaotically. Therefore, maybe the MJO predictions I cited above are off, but I think the MJO still matters.

I'm only speaking about La Nina years, but I think the key point with MJO is that timing of the pulses gives you a pretty good indication on when you can expect activity to ramp up (or when there will be a higher percentage of something trackable). It doesn't mean there won't be activity when MJO is negative, it's more of a percentage (which, admittedly, I don't have the statistics at hand).

Another interesting thing about 2010 so far is the timing of the two named systems (Bonnie and Alex) corresponded with a waxing moon (near full). Some years it seems that certain lunar phases correspond with an uptick of tropical activity. June's full moon was 6/26 (Alex was classified on the 25th); July's is today. Not that it means anything, but you see that from time to time - could be coincidental, could be an unexplained phenomenon.