ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[PTrackerLA]

Wow huge shifts today, but way too close to comfort for Florida and SE. Would really be amazing if the Euro track pans out luck-wise. I'm thinking another 24 hours or so for the models to really lock in so plenty of time for shifts.

[Alyono]

you CANNOT use the TVCN as it contains the unrealistic GFDL. One has to adjust it

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the TVCN (consensus track) is just east of the Bahamas. What a shift from the 12Z.

I think that is mostly due to the Gfdl. The Nhc mentioned in this mornings's Discussion that the Tvcn was impacted a bit because rhe Gfdl was such an extreme outlier. Throw out the Gfdl and the consensus would be a bit more west.


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[SFLcane]

Indeed gatorcane i was surprised myself. They can easily come back westward. Until Erika is a mature TC global models are garbage.

[mitchell]

Looks like the TVCN (consensus track) is just east of the Bahamas. What a shift from the 12Z.

Any thoughts on why the TVCN still takes a 90 degree left turn (while east of Florida) then keeps chugging north, on the 18z like it did on the 12z, only now it is a good 150 miles to the east?

[wzrgirl1]

I am feeling a bit better too.

[stormlover2013]

because that trough DIGS really SOUTH

[SFLcane]

WPweather its likely a TD now but its expected. What it might mean later on who knows lol

[WPBWeather]

WPweather its likely a TD now but its expected. What it might mean later on who knows lol

I think that means not good news for you or me.

[Agua]

They can easily come back westward.

We've seen them whip around after reaching relatively tight spreads many, many times.

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM-9, actually shows a slight WNW bend at the end so maybe seeing more ridging?

[Blown Away]

18z GFS landfalls in FL and 12z Euro misses my point by @45 miles and would likely bring Cat 1 gusts... Come on, it's one run...

[BucMan2]

My question is how did that trough all of the sudden become so strong and is it possible the models are overdoing the trough?

[stormlover2013]

well models have a tough time with troughs on how strong they are in august and September so it could be that but who knows we shall see

[hcane27]

Yes , the ECMW is the Euro .... this one is updated with the 12Z JMA added

But the 12z Euro doesn't make landfall in Florida...

You are correct .. thank you for catching that .. I apologize for the confusion ... it has been corrected

[Bocadude85]

Yes , the ECMW is the Euro .... this one is updated with the 12Z JMA added

But the 12z Euro doesn't make landfall in Florida...

You are correct .. thank you for catching that .. I apologize for the confusion ... it has been corrected

Wow the 12z euro is in between Grand Bahama Island and the coast of Palm Beach. We're talking 30-40 miles offshore. That's a close call for sure.

[hurricaneCW]

The pattern screams that Erika could be trapped off the SE coast, which would be awful for beaches if she lingers as a hurricane for days offshore.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS run starts at 5:30PM EDT, in case anyone was curious.

[Steve H.]

Yeah, I didn't know the 18z GFS was out yet! Someone said they saw it. I don't know about that.

[Frank P]

NRL tropical model: COAMPS-TCTM Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Verification