EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[Hammy]

165 mph at landfall, same as Andrew was.

[galaxy401]

Landfall intensity makes sense.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

HURRICANE PATRICIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITH 165-MPH WINDS...

Satellite images indicate that the center of the eye of Patricia
made landfall at approximately 615 PM CDT...2315 UTC...along the
coast of southwestern Mexico near Cuixmala. This position is also
about 55 miles...85 km...west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The
maximum winds were estimated to be 165 mph...270 km/h.


SUMMARY OF 615 PM...2315 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 105.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stewart

[Aric Dunn]

i doubt the pressure rose that much but none the less powerful.

[bahamaswx]

Hey everyone, I have friends in Puerto Vallarta in a very secure hotel. They are asking me (of all people) what they should expect as far as winds in the city. Any quick thoughts?

Cat 1 conditions I would imagine.

[Yellow Evan]

iCyclone likely getting hammered by the eastern eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

i doubt the pressure rose that much but none the less powerful.

We'll get a good reading soon.

[FireRat]

Numbers just like Andrew, pres 920 mb vs Andy's 922 at landfall with 165 mph winds, just wow! what a surprise to see this thing from one day to the next. Thank goodness this storm weakened so quickly from its 200 mph peak! Still this is a Cat 5, will be a scary sight to see come tomorrow's first light of damage.

the quick pressure rise matches the storm's satellite presentation over the last few hours, it really got more ragged, quite so even for 165 mph...looks can be deceiving sometimes.

[windnrain]

https://twitter.com/stormchaser4850/sta ... 3469321216

[Sanibel]

Edit: I think it did a big right wobble and slammed into Chamela







The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mrbagyo]

165 mph seems reasonable but I don't think pressure would rise up to 920 hpa that quickly. Pressure usually lags behind the wind

[windnrain]

https://twitter.com/marcelocordova/stat ... 9151429633

[Chris_in_Tampa]

i doubt the pressure rose that much but none the less powerful.

Sondes (surface wind speed noted at location with approximate adjustment to likely actual lowest pressure in the storm):

01:35:53pm EDT: 883mb, 45 knots ... 879mb
04:37:34pm EDT: 910mb, 68 knots ... 903mb (NHC went with 900mb for 5pm EDT)

By 7:30pm EDT, a 20mb rise seems very reasonable, if not even more than that. 15 minutes before that, 920mb seems pretty good.

[bahamaswx]

165 knots seems reasonable but I don't think pressure would rise up to 920 hpa that quickly. Pressure usually lags behind the wind

Both are just educated guesses. The 165mph estimate may well be too high. Time will tell.

[mrbagyo]

165 knots seems reasonable but I don't think pressure would rise up to 920 hpa that quickly. Pressure usually lags behind the wind

Both are just educated guesses. The 165mph estimate may well be too high. Time will tell.

Oh my bad. I mean 165 mph not knots.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

165 knots seems reasonable but I don't think pressure would rise up to 920 hpa that quickly. Pressure usually lags behind the wind

Both are just educated guesses. The 165mph estimate may well be too high. Time will tell.

Recon seemed to indicate at about 4:30pm EDT that the wind was about 140 to 150 mph, with 150 mph reflective of the SFMR. (which is a 10 second surface estimate) Based on where the high wind was before I think they sampled the region that would have had about the highest winds, with further weakening from there likely.

Code: Select all

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

https://twitter.com/marcelocordova/status/657703259151429633

Impressive and that's not near the landfall point at all.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

A few visible images at the time of landfall:







From: https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/

[terstorm1012]

you can get a sense of what the little town that is in the eye looked like before view google street view
(Emilano Zapata)

the iCyclone crew apparently rode out Jova in 2011 in the same town http://www.icyclone.com/chases/jova-2011.html

[Sanibel]

Apology: My last post was rotten information because the SSD satellite wasn't calibrated to the coastline correctly.



The landfall was near Cuixmala as progged by NHC. East eyewall into Emiliano Zapata village and Costa Careyes as previously predicted.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.