ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Evil Jeremy
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#1261 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:00 pm

Was there a Gulfstream IV mission today to sample the atmosphere?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1262 Postby N2FSU » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:06 pm

tolakram wrote:18Z GFS run starts at 5:30PM EDT, in case anyone was curious. :)


Can't wait to see!
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1263 Postby MetroMike » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:12 pm

Some models are showing complete disenigration (sp) of the TC and regeneration later. So that would all the model runs in the garbage, only to start over.
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#1264 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:27 pm

Is the 18Z starting up?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re:

#1265 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:31 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Is the 18Z starting up?



Very soon
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#1266 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:36 pm

:uarrow:

It's live now.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1267 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:39 pm

18Z GFS initialized (whatever that means :D )

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1268 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:42 pm

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1269 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:44 pm

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1270 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:47 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1271 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:48 pm

Ridge looks weaker through 30 hours...think it goes further North this time.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1272 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:49 pm

So far stronger than 12Z run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2015082618&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=300
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1273 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:49 pm

Door wideeeeeeeeee open there. "Magical " door
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#1274 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:50 pm

Back to the magical door we go.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1275 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:50 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Ridge looks weaker through 30 hours...think it goes further North this time.


It is hard to tell at this point, but the ridge could also build back west. It would not take much to push Erica just enough to the west to make land fall.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1276 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:52 pm

Really magical Lol.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1277 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:52 pm

What in the world are you all talking about? Can you post an upper level map showing this wide open area?

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1278 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:53 pm

Thank you so much I was being a little on the smart ass side.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1279 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:53 pm

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1280 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:56 pm

So far better defined and maybe a few miles NE of previous run. :)
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