EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

weatherwindow · #1261 Postby **weatherwindow** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Do we have any members in that area?

Zeehag...Barra Navidad...a liveaboard...Grtz from Key West, Rich.

TheStormExpert · #1262 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:16 pm

Any webcams still up showing Patricia's fury?

Sanibel · #1263 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:21 pm

The little village of Arroyo Seco near the coast should have gotten the hard side of a category 5 eyewall.

Chris_in_Tampa · #1264 Postby **Chris_in_Tampa** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:29 pm

#1265 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:34 pm

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman ... type=LOCAL

Alleged reports of 160 knots at 295ft.

#1266 Postby **terstorm1012** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:36 pm

here's a weather station near the landfall point. note some of the gusts (flagged as suspect) http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman ... type=LOCAL

Chris_in_Tampa · #1267 Postby **Chris_in_Tampa** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:44 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Alleged reports of 160 knots at 295ft.

#1268 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:44 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Alleged reports of 160 knots at 295ft.

That is still not unrepresentative of a Cat 4 at face value using a 75-80% reduction level (90% over water but higher over land). However, given that it is in the NW quad and stronger winds likely exist in the NE quad, a landfall intensity of 140 kt seems most reasonable.

Aric Dunn · #1269 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:45 pm

interesting...

TeamPlayersBlue · #1270 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:46 pm

Btw, i never watch the weather channel. Doing a really good job informing viewers of what the hurricane hunters go through when flying through the storms etc. Excellent TV right now.

Chris_in_Tampa · #1271 Postby **Chris_in_Tampa** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:00 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Alleged reports of 160 knots at 295ft.

That is still not unrepresentative of a Cat 4 at face value using a 75-80% reduction level (90% over water but higher over land). However, given that it is in the NW quad and stronger winds likely exist in the NE quad, a landfall intensity of 140 kt seems most reasonable.

The difference between the sustained winds and gusts seem rather extreme for some of those obs.

#1272 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:04 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Alleged reports of 160 knots at 295ft.

That is still not unrepresentative of a Cat 4 at face value using a 75-80% reduction level (90% over water but higher over land). However, given that it is in the NW quad and stronger winds likely exist in the NE quad, a landfall intensity of 140 kt seems most reasonable.

The difference between the sustained winds and gusts seem rather extreme for some of those obs.

The gusts were marked as suspect.

#1273 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:11 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
The gusts were marked as suspect.

Surely the data will be re-analyzed. The station might have gone down, but timely enough to allow that data to come out.

#1274 Postby **terstorm1012** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:13 pm

the station is part of a national park facility. i wonder if anyone is still there.

#1275 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:13 pm

Given that the lowest pressure at that site, adjusted for sea level, was 948mb, the Schloemer equation can assess the pressure at that time (just after landfall).

#1276 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:22 pm

(PR - Po) / (Pn - Po) = e^(-RMW/R)

Based on Recon data pre-landfall, followed by enlargement via the ERC, a 10 nautical mile RMW will be used. The outermost closed isobar I will estimate at 1004 mb (based on the latest model runs) as it was embedded in a monsoonal trough. The lowest pressure was at 2345Z, when the center was about 10 miles inland. The site is about 9 nautical miles away from the center of Patricia at that time.

(948 - Po) / (1004 - Po) = e^(-10/9) = e^(-1.1111) = 0.3292

Based on that calculation, I get a pressure, at that time, of 921mb. Based on adjustment to landfall and assumed filling in that hour, I estimate the landfall pressure (at 2300Z) to be 918mb.

#1277 Postby **terstorm1012** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:39 pm

it doesn't look like that station was ever in the eye but was pretty darn close. it'll probably be key in post, along with what we get from the iCyclone crew.

#1278 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:54 pm

live IR. Looks like the upper level is already over the mountains.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-170&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

#1279 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:10 pm

tolakram wrote:live IR. Looks like the upper level is already over the mountains.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-170&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

It actually looks better in the last couple frames.

#1280 Postby **terstorm1012** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:13 pm

the Weather Channel's reporting they can no longer reach the iCyclone crew.

EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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