ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

You can clearly see on this loop that it is still moving SW
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Drifting W-SW

[TheStormExpert]

Considering the 5 pm NHC advisory had a peak intensity forecast of 100 knots, which is most likely the current intensity, I think a special advisory is warranted.

Plus it's still RI'ing which means it will likely be even stronger once recon finishes up!

[Hammy]

Likely to be Cat 3 by next full advisory at this point?

[CrazyC83]

Likely to be Cat 3 by next full advisory at this point?

I would think so. They might even issue a Tropical Cyclone Update if they find the data conclusive enough.

[TimeZone]

Appears like it's a major Hurricane based on recon.

wow....

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 010015
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 30/23:48:10Z
B. 23 deg 56 min N
072 deg 56 min W
C. 700 mb 2698 m
D. 79 kt
E. 327 deg 17 nm
F. 058 deg 97 kt
G. 327 deg 12 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 16 C / 3052 m
J. 20 C / 3040 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0511A JOAQUIN OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 113 KT 135 / 15 NM 23:52:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 100 / 13 KT
;

[CrazyC83]

Pressure confirmed at 951 based on the VDM and dropsonde.

[AutoPenalti]

Any bets on cat 3 by 11pm?

[TheStormExpert]

@TropicalTidbits: It seems likely that #Joaquin may already be a Cat 3. Data is available in realtime at http://t.co/jTdPDeAqhj http://t.co/5E5vBfvkzu

[Hammy]

Any bets on cat 3 by 11pm?

I think I'm done betting, this already cost me two already

edit: I just noticed the satellite: it appears they missed the center a bit.

[Aric Dunn]

Hammy all you have to do to win is dont bet past 48 hours lol

[summersquall]

000

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Joaquin
has been drifting southward during the past few hours, but a general
motion toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) is expected through
Thursday. A turn toward the northwest and north is forecast
Thursday night or Friday. The center of Joaquin is expected to
move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and
Thursday, and be near or over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas
Thursday night or Friday.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is expected to become
a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stewart

[SunnyThoughts]

Hoping the folks on the islands stay safe tonight and tomorrow...and hoping and wishing SO much that this goes out to sea like the euro says and misses everybody else.




Please stay tuned to NHC for official information.

[Cyclenall]

Its looking quite good. Models have done good so far. Probably looking at a bordeline cat 3 by morning.

I can't see that happening until it wraps it's heaviest convection around the Western side.

It will be all those things above in 2 hours or less, likely right now.

I didn't think this looked like a 85-90 mph system, I would have guessed 95 knots but its intensifying fast enough to swoop over those estimates. When will the cable media get a whiff of this new data?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010021
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 29 20151001
001200 2257N 07153W 6966 03093 9992 +094 //// 221044 045 043 006 01
001230 2256N 07151W 6964 03097 9995 +092 //// 220044 045 043 005 01
001300 2255N 07150W 6966 03095 9995 +091 //// 221043 043 043 005 01
001330 2253N 07149W 6966 03100 0005 +088 +088 220045 047 043 005 03
001400 2252N 07148W 6967 03100 0017 +085 +085 221042 047 041 008 00
001430 2251N 07146W 6963 03106 0008 +088 +088 221042 043 040 008 00
001500 2250N 07145W 6967 03103 0009 +090 //// 220043 044 041 007 01
001530 2248N 07144W 6965 03109 0014 +089 //// 218043 044 040 005 01
001600 2247N 07142W 6963 03111 0027 +088 +088 213045 047 038 007 00
001630 2246N 07141W 6968 03108 0034 +085 +085 209047 048 040 006 03
001700 2245N 07140W 6965 03116 0033 +086 //// 210051 052 039 006 01
001730 2244N 07138W 6969 03114 0017 +085 //// 207051 052 037 005 01
001800 2243N 07137W 6966 03118 //// +080 //// 204049 051 039 004 01
001830 2241N 07136W 6965 03122 0021 +082 //// 206043 049 041 004 01
001900 2240N 07135W 6963 03126 //// +083 //// 211038 041 042 004 01
001930 2239N 07133W 6968 03121 //// +086 //// 208039 040 040 004 01
002000 2238N 07132W 6967 03122 //// +087 //// 212038 040 039 003 05
002030 2237N 07130W 6957 03134 //// +080 //// 219032 036 /// /// 05
002100 2239N 07129W 6966 03123 //// +086 //// 216027 031 /// /// 05
002130 2241N 07130W 6967 03121 0033 +085 //// 214027 028 041 005 01
$$
;

[TheStormExpert]

The 11pm advisory tonight will be real interesting. I'm guessing they'll have Joaquin peaking stronger before weakening.

[CrazyC83]

The 11pm advisory tonight will be real interesting. I'm guessing they'll have Joaquin peaking stronger before weakening.

I'm thinking they up the peak intensity to Cat 4, and that comes sooner (maybe by late tomorrow) before ERC's begin the weakening.

[syfr]

Ultimate landfall prediction would seem hazy until he starts moving in a regular fashion for a while...

[CrazyC83]

AL, 11, 2015100100, , BEST, 0, 239N, 730W, 100, 951, HU,

Second major of 2015.

[EquusStorm]

In the last 24 hours this has went from a really boring El Nino Atlantic year with little impact beyond the floods from Erika, to something clearly far more significant. Goes to show how fast things can happen when a system finds juuuuuust the right niche even in an otherwise hostile environment... definitely living proof that it does indeed just take one.

Interestingly... Andrew and Betsy, two analogs for the storm's current position that have been discussed, as well as Dean in '83 that of course unlike those two took a path similar to this one's forecast track, were all produced in El Nino years.