ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010031
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 30 20151001
002200 2243N 07130W 6965 03123 0020 +085 //// 210028 029 045 004 01
002230 2245N 07130W 6965 03122 //// +080 //// 204028 028 045 004 01
002300 2247N 07130W 6964 03123 0025 +086 //// 203029 029 043 005 01
002330 2249N 07131W 6964 03122 0019 +086 //// 201028 029 042 004 01
002400 2251N 07131W 6965 03120 0016 +089 +089 202027 028 045 005 00
002430 2253N 07131W 6964 03121 0008 +092 +090 206028 030 045 006 00
002500 2255N 07131W 6966 03117 0010 +090 +089 203033 034 045 005 00
002530 2257N 07131W 6965 03120 0018 +088 +087 199033 035 045 007 00
002600 2259N 07131W 6966 03116 0030 +083 +083 195032 033 046 007 03
002630 2301N 07131W 6964 03119 0020 +083 +083 196033 033 048 008 00
002700 2303N 07131W 6967 03114 0021 +084 +084 198034 034 048 007 00
002730 2305N 07131W 6963 03116 0010 +088 +084 194033 035 047 007 00
002800 2307N 07131W 6965 03114 0002 +091 +087 192032 033 048 005 00
002830 2309N 07131W 6966 03111 0004 +089 +089 192030 032 047 006 00
002900 2311N 07131W 6967 03110 0000 +091 +089 190029 031 049 006 00
002930 2313N 07131W 6965 03111 9991 +097 +091 196028 029 050 006 00
003000 2315N 07131W 6962 03112 9979 +105 +092 191028 029 051 006 00
003030 2317N 07131W 6963 03109 9984 +099 +090 190035 039 052 006 00
003100 2319N 07132W 6962 03109 9982 +101 +089 192038 041 053 005 00
003130 2322N 07132W 6964 03104 9974 +106 +089 191037 039 052 005 00
$$
;

[TimeZone]

The 11pm advisory tonight will be real interesting. I'm guessing they'll have Joaquin peaking stronger before weakening.

I'm thinking they up the peak intensity to Cat 4, and that comes sooner (maybe by late tomorrow) before ERC's begin the weakening.

I doubt the NHC will put much thought into EWRC's in terms of the intensity forecast. They can be hard to predict. Look at Bill back in 2009. He went through more ERC's than any storm I've ever seen, while Wilma never underwent one that I can remember.

[Hammy]

I cannot for the life of me remember who, but one poster for months had been warning of a possible major threat between mid-September and mid-October. That threat appears to be here and in that time frame.

[TheStormExpert]

I cannot for the life of me remember who, but one poster for months had been warning of a possible major threat between mid-September and mid-October. That threat appears to be here and in that time frame.

I think it was LarryWx.

But he was referring to a GoM/NE Gulf threat as opposed to this I believe.

[floridasun78]

889mb 20° (from the NNE) 109 knots (125 mph)Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces from plane look well above ground their high wind

[Yellow Evan]

The 11pm advisory tonight will be real interesting. I'm guessing they'll have Joaquin peaking stronger before weakening.

I'm thinking they up the peak intensity to Cat 4, and that comes sooner (maybe by late tomorrow) before ERC's begin the weakening.

I doubt the NHC will put much thought into EWRC's in terms of the intensity forecast. They can be hard to predict. Look at Bill back in 2009. He went through more ERC's than any storm I've ever seen, while Wilma never underwent one that I can remember.

Wilma underwent one just after its peak.

[drewschmaltz]

I cannot for the life of me remember who, but one poster for months had been warning of a possible major threat between mid-September and mid-October. That threat appears to be here and in that time frame.

I think it was LarryWx.

But he was referring to a GoM/NE Gulf threat as opposed to this I believe.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117035&start=500

To quote him:

"As we get to Sept.: if the MJO were to remain within the circle, that actually becomes favorable per hard stats compiled for 1995-2012. Regardless, as far as CONUS threats are concerned, I wouldn't let a quiet August lead one to believe that Sept-Oct. will likely have no H threats based on the prior 2nd year very strong Nino seasons. Though I'm not predicting this since it isn't predictable, two CONUS H hits in Sep.-Oct. (especially mid-Sep. through mid Oct.) wouldn't at all be surprising to me based on history of similar ENSO. If so, my educated guess is that they wouldn't be storms that form east of 50W."

Edit: I'm not 100% sure but looks like Joaquin formed at 27.5N 68.7W

[bamajammer4eva]

According to this steering map, direction changes significantly if J... continues to intensify below 940mb.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[CrazyC83]

According to this steering map, direction changes significantly if J... continues to intensify below 940mb.

New watches for Cuba perhaps? Or confident enough it will turn or stall?

[floridasun78]

According to this steering map, direction changes significantly if J... continues to intensify below 940mb.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

what direction changes can you explain?

[AutoPenalti]

According to this steering map, direction changes significantly if J... continues to intensify below 940mb.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

How strong does Joaquin need to be in order to cause that situation?

And does a strong hurricane mean that the trough will just not yank this up quick enough?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010041
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 31 20151001
003200 2324N 07132W 6965 03103 9964 +113 +089 188034 036 054 005 00
003230 2326N 07132W 6966 03099 9968 +108 +088 191036 038 056 005 00
003300 2328N 07132W 6966 03097 9970 +104 +088 190041 043 054 004 00
003330 2330N 07132W 6962 03102 9980 +094 +089 187044 045 054 004 00
003400 2332N 07132W 6966 03097 9989 +085 //// 184042 044 052 005 01
003430 2334N 07132W 6963 03103 9995 +086 //// 183034 039 050 004 01
003500 2336N 07132W 6968 03096 //// +085 //// 183035 038 050 003 01
003530 2339N 07132W 6966 03098 //// +089 //// 181041 041 049 004 01
003600 2341N 07132W 6965 03097 9975 +099 +089 174043 044 047 004 00
003630 2343N 07132W 6964 03099 9975 +098 +086 178044 044 048 004 00
003700 2345N 07132W 6969 03093 9981 +095 +086 177044 044 046 002 00
003730 2347N 07133W 6962 03099 9977 +096 +084 176045 045 047 002 00
003800 2349N 07133W 6966 03096 9979 +096 +084 173044 045 046 002 00
003830 2352N 07133W 6961 03099 9978 +095 +084 171046 047 046 001 00
003900 2354N 07133W 6970 03089 9975 +100 +083 172049 050 047 001 00
003930 2356N 07133W 6963 03098 9980 +095 +086 173049 050 046 001 00
004000 2358N 07133W 6965 03094 9975 +097 +090 172048 049 044 000 00
004030 2400N 07133W 6967 03092 9971 +100 +087 172048 049 045 001 00
004100 2403N 07133W 6965 03096 9969 +102 +085 171047 049 046 000 00
004130 2405N 07133W 6967 03093 9970 +100 +087 168045 045 046 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

According to this steering map, direction changes significantly if J... continues to intensify below 940mb.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

How strong does Joaquin need to be in order to cause that situation?

And does a strong hurricane mean that the trough will just not yank this up quick enough?

That is for below 940mb pressures.

[windnrain]

Where does it go?

[CronkPSU]

well none of the models predict under a 940 hurricane...but you have certainly caught my attention as a Florida resident

[floridasun78]

well none of the models predict under a 940 hurricane...but you have certainly caught my attention as a Florida resident

it have even media

[AutoPenalti]

According to this steering map, direction changes significantly if J... continues to intensify below 940mb.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

How strong does Joaquin need to be in order to cause that situation?

And does a strong hurricane mean that the trough will just not yank this up quick enough?

That is for below 940mb pressures.

Well it really only needs ~10-14 mb in order for that to occur, so it isn't that far from that.

[ozonepete]

We are at D-Max now.

No. DMAX comes much later at night.

Sorry I meant that as a question. And what time would that occur exactly?

Hey there AutoP! DMAX and DMIN refer to the Diurnal Maximum and Diurnal Minimum of thunderstorm intensity that typically occurs in tropical cyclones over 24 hours. To understand this remember that the hurricane's core thunderstorms (the storm engine) thrive by pulling warm surface air up to very high levels where it is extremely cold. The warmer the surface and the colder the thunderstorm tops, the more intense the thunderstorms are, so the bigger the temp difference between the bottomand top of the thunderstorms, the more intense the storms and the hurricane. During both the day and night the core thunderstorms have very warm air below (air warmed by high water temps) but during the day the sun heats the tops of the thunderstorms so that they are not quite as cold topped and thus a little weaker. At night with no sun, the thunderstorm tops can get really cold and thus the temp difference from bottom to top gets larger and the thunderstorms get more intense. So the longer the day wears on the more the thunderstorms weaken and we have the diurnal minimum, DMIN. At night, as the tops get colder and colder we get DMAX. Thus DMIN is just before the sun goes down and DMAX just before the sun goes up. Ok?

[floridasun78]

look like weakness have form what i see likely get pull soon to nnw . Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurrilurker]

I'm concerned for the islands because according to the current forecast track, it’s going to make a very slow turn to the north right at the point where the center will be brushing up against the Bahamas. That means it’s going to spend a lot of time over essentially the same spot, right at the time it's probably reaching max intensity, and could dramatically increase wind damage, rainfall, and flooding in that area.