ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF looks to have shifted even more east and it has done so with a weaker system too.

http://i.imgur.com/BtOBr8Q.png

Yup further northeast. Models really have shifted east. I would assume the NHC will follow suit at 11pm

You get the feeling these models are not done shifting east do you?

Not sure if they are getting more data fed into them but seems like they keep shifting.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF +90hr

Looks to already be making a north turn there.

SFT

[gatorcane]

Still moving NW at hour 90 but may wind up missing most of the Bahamas to the east on this run.

[gatorcane]

Yep, even east of the Bahamas now, another big shift east by the HWRF as the models seem to be latching on to more troughing....

[abajan]

"FL dodges yet another storm."

To early to say that.. Please use disclaimer.
Thanks!

Indeed. One of the more glaring omissions of the disclaimer I've seen in a while. Come on, guys. Use the disclaimer. We don't want S2K to get unnecessarily entangled in legal problems.

[Bocadude85]

18Z HWRF looks to have shifted even more east and it has done so with a weaker system too.

http://i.imgur.com/BtOBr8Q.png

Yup further northeast. Models really have shifted east. I would assume the NHC will follow suit at 11pm

You get the feeling these models are not done shifting east do you?

Not sure if they are getting more data fed into them but seems like they keep shifting.

It wouldn't surprise me to seem them shift back west at some point. I think the final outcome may be a track over Grand Bahama/Abaco while heading up and out. It's crazy how these models are having such drastic changes from run to run.

[gatorcane]

HWRF is up and out at 111 hours missing most of the Bahamas now to the east, not even a close call for Florida any longer. What a difference 12 hours makes.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFDL way east of the Bahamas now with another shift to the east but wow it is going nuts with this thing!

[Alyono]

these model intensity forecasts are beyond laughable. I have no clue why some here are taking these are more than entertainment

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow gatorcane 134kt Hopefully won't verify even close to correct in intensity, but staying way East is a good thing and hopefully that does indeed verify.

[deltadog03]

these model intensity forecasts are beyond laughable. I have no clue why some here are taking these are more than entertainment

I agree...I don't know why they are being given so much weight...Hell, does Erika even get passed PR in tact? I DO think this has a great shot it gets strong but not until it approaches the Bahamas.

[SeGaBob]

They usually never shift back west... out to sea it is.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

They usually never shift back west... out to sea it is.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This isn't true...I've seen them wipe East and West many times before.

SFT

[tolakram]

I honestly don't think that many are taking strength into account, I know I'm only looking for track, but it might be a good time to remind newer visitors, nicely, that the models have very little skill when forecasting intensity.

[tolakram]

HWRF-P, final frame

[gatorcane]

One thing I noticed is that the 18Z GFS ensembles have more of a tight clustering very close to SE Florida (like right along the coast or over the Gulf stream) - look how many ensemble members are clustered there...with a few over the FL Keys / straights and a few further east over the Bahamas:

[NDG]

"FL dodges yet another storm."

To early to say that.. Please use disclaimer.
Thanks!

Yeah one slight shift of that ridge to the wsw sends this thing into the coast

I was quoting what people would be saying not that I was calling for the clear, of course I know is too early.

[hurricanekid416]

Is the gfs trying to loop it back in to the coast?

[northjaxpro]

Is the gfs trying to loop it back in to the coast?

Yes. This is a plausible scenario as well.

[gatorcane]

Some of the 00Z guidance has updated and you can see the NHC track is quite a bit to the west now. Even the NAVGEM has shifted more east (not updated yet below) - the ECMWF run tonight will be important. If that has a healthy shift east, then we could be seeing a trend with a bigger trough: