SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TXPS41 PHFO 112312
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2311 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

A. Tropical cyclone Pam.

B. 11/2232Z.

C. 12.2°S.

D. 170.0°E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HR.

G. Vis/ir.

H. Remarks: Ow eye with W surrounding shade and narrow cmg band yields a data t-number of 6.5. Pattern t-number and model t-number agree.

I. Addl positions 11/1539Z 11.8°S 170.0°E ssmi 11/1829Z 11.9°S 170.1°E ssmis 11/1856Z 12.0°S 170.1°E ssmis 11/1941Z 12.0°S 170.1°E ssmis.

$$
DONALDSON

[Yellow Evan]

TPPS10 PGTW 120037

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM)

B. 12/0000Z

C. 12.54S

D. 170.24E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT OF 5.0. +0.5 BF ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT
YIELD A 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/1841Z 11.97S 170.22E SSMS
11/1856Z 12.00S 170.17E SSMS


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

It has a huge eye...

[Yellow Evan]

WTPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 170.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 170.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.1S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.0S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.1S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.7S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 27.4S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 35.5S 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 170.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 578 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 30 NM RAGGED EYE. AN 112204Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T6.0 FROM PGTW, KNES AND NFFN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC PAM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 140 KNOTS. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START ITS
WEAKENING TREND AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC PAM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2015 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 12:53:27 S Lon : 170:08:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 910.9mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -1.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 150km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.7 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

If you ask me, Pam warrants a T6.5 but any warming of the eye yields T7.0. ADT is 6.8 CMISS and 6.9 FMS. I'd go with 130 normally, but 125 due to the large size, it may not mix as well.

[Yellow Evan]

2015MAR12 033200 7.0 905.6 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -18.77 -79.22 EYE -99 IR 60.1 -13.12 -170.25 COMBO MTSAT2 32.9
2015MAR12 023200 7.0 905.7 140.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -1.67 -78.54 EYE -99 IR 60.1 -12.89 -170.15 COMBO MTSAT2 32.7
2015MAR12 013200 6.9 908.3 137.4 6.9 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -7.00 -78.46 EYE -99 IR 60.1 -12.75 -170.13 COMBO MTSAT2 32.6

[HurricaneBill]

One of the worst cyclones to hit Vanuatu was Cyclone Uma in 1987. Uma killed 50 and caused $150 million in damage. Uma was a Category 3 (SS scale).

The most recent cyclone to hit Vanuatu was Cyclone Lusi in 2014. Lusi was a Category 1 (SS scale). Lusi left 11 dead, mainly due to flooding.

[euro6208]

Up to 120 knots!

17P PAM 150312 0600 13.4S 170.1E SHEM 120 933

[euro6208]

I'm thinking a peak intensity of 140 to 150 knots...

[Yellow Evan]

Def 7.0 worthy




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2015 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 14:05:13 S Lon : 169:54:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 909.8mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : -14.6C Cloud Region Temp : -83.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 160km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.1 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

CPHC gave this 6.0, but this was a while ago and the 1030z update not in.

SAB/SSD were 6.5 at 6z.

[euro6208]

At least 135 knots...

Let's see what 12Z says...

[Yellow Evan]

Wonderful ADT. Choking in the clutch when it matters most.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 13:38:12 S Lon : 169:59:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 909.9mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.2 5.0

Center Temp : -84.0C Cloud Region Temp : -83.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 160km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.9 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

I'd almost say this looks lijke a 7.5

7.0 clear as a day, and 8.0 is not far off. Would like to see some stadium effect though.

[Yellow Evan]

2015MAR12 103200 7.0 904.5 140.0 6.9 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -14.60 -83.73 EYE 24 IR 56.4 -14.09 -169.91 COMBO MTSAT2 33.1

[Yellow Evan]

TPPS10 PGTW 121222

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM)

B. 12/1132Z

C. 14.15S

D. 169.91E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0637Z 13.40S 170.07E WIND
12/0706Z 13.60S 170.12E SSMS
12/0733Z 13.57S 170.03E SSMS
12/0819Z 13.75S 169.95E SSMS


BERMEA

Will SAb and SSD go 7.0 as well?

[euro6208]

Looking at the JTWC archives, only 9 cyclones have reached category 5 strength, 140 knots, in the South Pacific...

Last one was Cyclone Ului in March 2010...

Can Pam become the 10th?

[Yellow Evan]

Here we go! SAB:

20150312 1132 -14.3 -169.9 T7.0/7.0 17P PAM

[euro6208]

That's what i thought...Just below cat 5...

17P PAM 150312 1200 14.2S 169.9E SHEM 135 922