EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Don't know why the NHC keeps lowering the peak.

The forecast guidance in the EPAC is not reliable period, other than for trends.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 120235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

...CARLOS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 100.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Acapulco to Zihuatanejo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 100.4 West. Carlos is
moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A very slow
north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane by
Friday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could spread over portions of the
southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero, during the next couple of days.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos are expected to increase near
the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Kingarabian]

5 hours old:

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2015 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 14:32:39 N Lon : 100:24:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 995.6mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -79.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

[Yellow Evan]

Also of note, the 0z GFS once again brings this to 954 mbar. It shows slow intensification as shear fluctuates, then shows a faster rate and an RI phase in a few days, as shear subsides. Likely has some weakening after day 4 due to dry air, though I have my doubts, as if the storm can have a good inner core by then, it should be able to mix it out.

Also shifted north a hair. Has it passing near Todos Santos as a low-end Cat 1 six days from now after entering the southern GOC (north of Jalisco).

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 120537
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...CARLOS STALLS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 100.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 100.6 West. Carlos is
moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A very slow
north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected, and Carlos is
forecast to become a hurricane during the next day or so.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could spread over portions of the
southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero, during the next couple of days.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos are expected to increase near
the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 120852
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Carlos has changed little in strength during the last several
hours. Infrared images and a recent GPM microwave image indicate
that the center is embedded within the deep convection. The latest
Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT were
unchanged from earlier, and support an intensity of 50 kt.
Northeasterly shear of about 15 kt is expected to persist
for another day or two, so only gradual intensification is
predicted. Some weakening is forecast by the end of the period when
Carlos is expected to approach a drier airmass and cooler sea
surface temperatures. Little change was made to the previous
intensity forecast, and it lies near the high end of the model
guidance.

The tropical storm is currently embedded in very weak steering
currents and has generally been drifting northwestward during the
past 6 hours or so. The steering currents are expected to remain
weak for another day or so, therefore, Carlos will likely continue
to meander during that time. Beyond 48 hours, mid-level ridging is
expected to build to the north of the storm resulting in a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a faster forward
speed. This forecast will keep the core of Carlos on a track
parallel to the coast of Mexico. The model guidance has changed
little this cycle. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and is also close to the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.9N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.3N 101.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.6N 101.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 16.6N 103.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 18.2N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

00
WTPZ33 KNHC 121134
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...CARLOS STATIONARY SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 100.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 100.8 West. Carlos is
currently stationary, and only a slow movement to the northwest is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and Carlos is forecast to
become a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could spread over portions of the
southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero, during the next couple of days.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos are expected to increase near
the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 03, 201506120905, 30, AMSU, IP, , 1526N, 10028W, , 2, 64, 1, 982, 1, MEAS, , , , , , , , , , , , 46, , E, CIMS, , , , , , , , 982, , NOAA19, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
EP, 03, 201506120907, 30, AMSU, IRP, , 1476N, 10068W, , 1, 53, 2, 990, 2, MEAS, 34, NEQ, 103, 97, 88, 94, , , , , 2, 48, , E, CIRA, JAK, , , , , , , 990, , NOAA19, 34, NEQ, 103, 97, 88, 94, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , , , , 2, storm center extrapolated from t=-12 and t=0 adeck
EP, 03, 201506121145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1430N, 10070W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, KL, IM, 3, 3035 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=3.0 FTBO PT
EP, 03, 201506121145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1470N, 10080W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, MF, I, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Carlos is looking better organized and should become a Hurricane later today or tomorrow. It's convection is working nicely.

Carlos Saved Loop


Synopsis on Carlos and basins: http://goo.gl/r6q8Oi

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

ATCF went with 50, but I'd go 45. Looks lousy to say the least.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015


Carlos looks a little better organized this afternoon with the
center now fully embedded within a more symmetric and deeper central
dense overcast. Microwave images show some evidence of inner core
features, but they remain fragmented. Since Dvorak estimates are
unchanged, the initial intensity will remain 50 kt, but this could
be a bit conservative based on recent trends.

The storm continues to be stationary within an area of light
steering between a mid-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico
and a ridge over northwestern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to
build over central Mexico on Sunday, which should then cause Carlos
to move toward the west-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of
Mexico, into early next week at an increasing forward speed. A
trough over the southwestern United States should move into
northwestern Mexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn
toward the northwest by Tuesday. Model guidance remains in
relatively good agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC
forecast is close to the previous one.

The intensity forecast continues to be challenging. During the next
day or so, northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a
slight intensification of Carlos is anticipated. Thereafter,
although the shear is expected to become light, a combination of
warm upper-level temperatures, drier air aloft, and possible land
interaction could help keep Carlos from strengthening significantly.
By day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere should help to
weaken Carlos. Although most of the intensity guidance no longer
calls for Carlos to become a hurricane, this guidance has had a
noted low bias this season, and the GFS still shows quite a bit of
intensificaton. Thus, I am inclined to stay at the upper edge of
the guidance, and near the previous NHC forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 14.7N 100.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 14.9N 100.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.2N 100.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 15.6N 101.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.3N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.5N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 22.0N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2015 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:52 N Lon : 100:36:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 991.6mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.7 4.1

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[Kingarabian]

 

[Yellow Evan]

Looks terrible right now. So elongated due to shear.


Still think this will make a run at a major though.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 122334
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...CENTER OF CARLOS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 100.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located by Mexican radar data and satellite imagery near latitude
14.7 North, longitude 100.3 West. Carlos is currently drifting
erratically, and only a slow movement to the west-northwest is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Carlos is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are beginning to spread over
portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of
Oaxaca and Guerrero, and will continue to affect these areas during
the next couple of days.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 130013
TCSENP

A. 03E (CARLOS)

B. 12/2345Z

C. 14.8N

D. 100.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...LITTLE CHANGE OVER PAST 24HRS WITH DT=3.0 BASED ON 7/10
BANDING. MET AND PAT ALSO 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/2257Z 14.5N 100.2W AMSU


...SWANSON

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 58 60 60 60 57 50 45 43 41
V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 58 60 60 60 57 50 45 43 41
V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 54 55 57 60 63 66 69 71 72 70
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 16 14 6 7 4 5 4 6 10 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 4 3 3 1 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 43 43 39 55 38 47 9 15 59 111 155 209 187
SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.4 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 160 158 157 160 158 153 147 140
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 7 9 6 8 6 7 5 7
700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 67 69 68 66 62 59 56 55 54 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 18 17 16 13 13 11 6 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 36 31 39 28 26 13 13 8 13 -2 -8
200 MB DIV 91 70 68 51 43 38 68 27 44 -9 -12 -32 -17
700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 0 1 3 1 -2 -1 0 -2 0
LAND (KM) 228 217 206 200 193 182 188 163 145 92 80 158 157
LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.8 20.1 21.4 22.5
LONG(DEG W) 100.2 100.3 100.4 100.6 100.8 101.7 102.8 103.7 104.7 105.6 106.4 107.1 107.8
STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 42 42 42 41 40 41 40 21 9 9 9 9 9

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 18. 18. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -9. -15. -17. -16. -16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 7. 0. -5. -7. -9.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Carlos is having some problems as it looks like its weakening a bit with the wind shear increasing again. Now, future intensification is questionable and we should see how this plays out.



Synopsis of Carlos and other basins: http://goo.gl/p5NpSe

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.