WPAC: SOUDELOR - Post-Tropical

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#141 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:This thing is dangerously beautiful and only 7 pages. Must be business as usual in the western Pacific.


The majority of the members don't live in that part of the world but I agree that despite that more activity should be occurring if someone is a tropical weather fan.
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#142 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:12 pm

Category 5 into Taiwan as per EURO and GFS...

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#143 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:25 pm

euro6208 wrote:Sucks...The weather equipment in Saipan was knocked out before the eye made landfall. The highest winds prior to losing the sensor was 91 mph...


Before the weather equipment got knocked out...

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#144 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:34 pm

EWRC imminent. the pinhole looks like pretty tenacious on radar. This may maintain concentric eyewalls for a while.

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#145 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:40 pm

New peak is 145kts.

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#146 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:41 pm

Side by side comparison of Soudelor and Wilma...

This is a Cat 5 folks and has been for a while...

I won't be surprised if Saipan got blasted by Cat 4, Cat 5 winds...

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Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#147 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:43 pm

I don't think this is a Cat 5 as the eye isn't warm enough.

I'd say 125 knts.
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#148 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 02, 2015 4:17 pm

wow...

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Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Aug 02, 2015 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#149 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 02, 2015 4:17 pm

I'd say the early effects of eyewall replacement are starting to be noticed. The moat has sharpened up nicely on radar more than would be expected due to just movement away from the radar site.

The sun is coming up now.

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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#150 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Aug 02, 2015 5:29 pm

euro6208 wrote:Side by side comparison of Soudelor and Wilma...

This is a Cat 5 folks and has been for a while...

I won't be surprised if Saipan got blasted by Cat 4, Cat 5 winds...

Image

Lol, everytime it's a pinhole eye, you say it's a cat 5. Hahahaha yet it is all just because of Wilma. Remember, looks can be deceiving.
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#151 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:29 pm

I suppose Soudelor won't be having that pinhole eye for the rest of its lifetime. Pinhole eye looks intense but it is not the most stable. Eventually the eyewall will collapse or redevelop, leading to a larger eye. Haiyan exhibited a pinhole eye in the early stages of her development. I don't know if it's just me but I think pinhole eyes are quite overrated. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#152 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:35 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I suppose Soudelor won't be having that pinhole eye for the rest of its lifetime. Pinhole eye looks intense but it is not the most stable. Eventually the eyewall will collapse or redevelop, leading to a larger eye. Haiyan exhibited a pinhole eye in the early stages of her development. I don't know if it's just me but I think pinhole eyes are quite overrated. :lol:


It's because of Wilma that pinhole eye gets talked about so much.
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#153 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:41 pm

Wilma looked mightily impressive at her peak but it could have been stronger IMO if not for an unsuccessful eyewall replacement.
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#154 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 02, 2015 8:02 pm

euro6208 wrote:Side by side comparison of Soudelor and Wilma...

This is a Cat 5 folks and has been for a while...

I won't be surprised if Saipan got blasted by Cat 4, Cat 5 winds...

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Might wanna give credit next time. @Adriansweather
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#155 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 02, 2015 9:01 pm

TY 1513 (SOUDELOR)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 3 August 2015
<Analyses at 03/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°10'(16.2°)
E144°00'(144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E139°10'(139.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E135°00'(135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°25'(20.4°)
E131°00'(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N22°00'(22.0°)
E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N24°00'(24.0°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)


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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#156 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 02, 2015 9:45 pm

Up to 115kts.

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#157 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 02, 2015 10:58 pm

Textbook eyewall replacement.

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#158 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 02, 2015 11:29 pm

ERC looks almost done. Cloud tops re-cooling. Only a matter of time before this reaches Cat 5.
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#159 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:41 am

-- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2015 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 16:53:05 N Lon : 143:03:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 970.0mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.0 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
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Re: WPAC: SOUDELOR - Typhoon

#160 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:22 am

Saipan in 'state of disaster' after Typhoon Soudelor direct hit
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