WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Looks like it's making a run to Cat 5...

[euro6208]

Center cooled a bit now at +16.6C but tops has continued to cool now at -69.3C...

[euro6208]

Dvorak and ADT underestimating this big time...

[Kingarabian]

BREATHTAKING

[euro6208]

AMSU data in at 127 knots with a cp of 927 mb...

[Kingarabian]

The WPAC is king, hands down.

[euro6208]

The northward turn is nerve racking for Luzon and Taiwan but then again, Miyako and Yaeyama is right in the middle...

[dexterlabio]

Finally we have two intense typhoons with big ole eyes.

[1900hurricane]

I hate to say it because people jump the gun on it all the time, but Goni might be becoming annular.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The WPAC is king, hands down.

Hey enough of that talk ...SHEM RULES

WPAC IS KING ALRIGHT

SHEM NOT EVEN CLOSE TO IT HAHAHA

WPAC IS ALSO PART OF THE NHEM, SO NHEM RULES

[dexterlabio]

so maybe I'll go out on a limb and remind you guys to stay on the thread's topic.

by the way is it just me or is the JTWC website having issues right now? I can't seem to load the warning graphic and even the text files. I wonder if DT's climbing up or not. Goni certainly looks vicious tonight, although the latest frame shows the structure a bit tilted.

[wxmann_91]

I hate to say it because people jump the gun on it all the time, but Goni might be becoming annular.

Probably not. The latest MW data still indicates some asymmetry in the system brought on by northerly shear.

[Yellow Evan]

Dvorak and ADT underestimating this big time...

What makes you think that? I don't think this is a Cat 5 yet, but we're getting there.

[talkon]

so maybe I'll go out on a limb and remind you guys to stay on the thread's topic.

by the way is it just me or is the JTWC website having issues right now? I can't seem to load the warning graphic and even the text files. I wonder if DT's climbing up or not. Goni certainly looks vicious tonight, although the latest frame shows the structure a bit tilted.

You can go for the raw text files
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/ for warnings
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/tp/ for dvorak fixes

BTW, here is the latest JTWC warnings&fixes for Goni
WTPN31 PGTW 191400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.0N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.1N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.4N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.1N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.2N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.1N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.6N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 126.8E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO SUPER
TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

TPPN10 PGTW 191214

A. TYPHOON 16W (GONI)

B. 19/1132Z

C. 18.85N

D. 127.25E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[Yellow Evan]

Looks 120ish to me. Keep in me Dvorak actually in the past has overestimated large eye storms.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 AUG 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 18:53:12 N Lon : 125:57:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 941.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 42 km

Center Temp : +15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.2C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 126km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.0 degrees

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 191516
TCSWNP

A. 16W (GONI)

B. 19/1432Z

C. 18.8N

D. 126.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN LG FOR AN E# OF 5.0. EYE SURROUNDED
BY B RING FOR A +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT IS 6.0. MET IS 6.5 AND PT IS
6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

OHC increases even more as it recurves. Models still strengthens Goni...

[bahamaswx]

Gonna be nervously awaiting that turn.