WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

galaxy401 · #141 Postby **galaxy401** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:48 pm

This storm should probably be watched more than Danny with the Hawaii threat.

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#142 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:50 pm

CPHC did say that there's low confidence in their center fix.

#143 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:52 pm

galaxy401 wrote:This storm should probably be watched more than Danny with the Hawaii threat.

The posts in this forum are not official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are solely the opinions of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to your local weather service's products.

I'll be watching for sure... :eek:

#144 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:54 pm

So far 18z GFS is coming in much stronger.

Hurricaneman · #145 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:56 pm

This one reminds me of Iniki in 1992 as it did something similar and formed in a similar spot to this one and may have similar impacts if the models are right so those in the Western Hawaiian islands need to make preparations for a dangerous storm

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#146 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:57 pm

much stronger, but farther west. It is nearly stalled through at 6Z Sunday

#147 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:59 pm

This is exactly why we needed that G-IV.

#148 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:01 pm

BIG west shift in the MU

#149 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:04 pm

only thing I see is that it was initialized at the CPHC fix position. I wonder if there is a vortex relocation done in the MU fields?

#150 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:04 pm

GFS stalls is out for a while now. Much in line with the ECMWF.

#151 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:08 pm

Basically a slight delay in the trough this run. But wow. 955mb off of Kauai.

#152 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:17 pm

Even if this were to happen, Hawaii would get some effects. Big question will be how close this comes to the islands or those ithis pass through it.

#153 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:31 pm

its basically the center fix. it narrowly misses

#154 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:39 pm

Not even just the center fix.

It's that fact that itll be a possible Cat.3-4. Just looking at those GFS rain totals, Kauai would get almost 16 inches of rainfall + cat. 1 effects. This isn't those ragged tropical storms that are sheared up possibly affecting Hawaii with the Big Island there to tear anything up.

#155 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:39 pm

Alyono wrote:its basically the center fix. it narrowly misses

Here is the 18z GFS center fix compared to the 12z GFS 6 hour forecast.

#156 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:52 pm

Lots of spread all over in the 18z guidance compared to 12z.

#157 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:55 pm

I definitely do not like the looks of this...

#158 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:56 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Lots of spread all over in the 18z guidance compared to 12z.

A lot of it has to do with poor initialization probs. GFS run is off and is gonna screw a lot of model runs the next cycle or so.

Hurricane Jed · #159 Postby **Hurricane Jed** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:02 pm

Going to be a tense next few days

#160 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:07 pm

Should we have a separate models threat for this storm? I know it is not normal, but this is a rare US threat in the Pacific.

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