ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#141 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:01 am

NDG please

Evidence is in the satellite loops all day yesterday and following it today to near the convection to where repeatedly the NHC and everyone else but you have placed the Low. It is a LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION evident with the clouds swirling around it for over 24 hours now, eddy's do not last that long. Nobody is saying a LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION means it is at the surface with winds at the surface closed off. This LLC is probably at the 850mb level. Even Jim Cantore this morning pointed out the Low and said yesterday you could make out a distinct LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION but that all the convection remained sheared well off to its east and that he doesn't think it will become a named storm.

I've been following weather and living in Florida most of my life Tropical Weather for around 40 yrs now, I know a LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION when I see it! CHILL OUT OVER IT ALREADY!

#142 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:04 am

That LLC is pushing more NE this morning and is about to get under the convection........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

#143 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:15 am

ASCAT does not lie, it never had a well defined LLC, you guys want to ignore the evidence, I am not the only one that saw the eddies rotating around each other. The overall circulation is elongated south to north.

caneman · #144 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:19 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:nhc has actually dropped it down to 30%. Says its weaker and more disorganized since yesterday. Should continue to drop from here on out as shear gets stronger like ndg and northjax have said.

Guess I was a little late for 99l's going away party since cycloneye already posted it

I,was referring to their 5 am update which did show 40 percent development, said moderate.chamce of development and more importantly did say.there was.an llc

caneman · #145 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:21 am

NDG wrote::uarrow: ASCAT does not lie, it never had a well defined LLC, you guys want to ignore the evidence, I am not the only one that saw the eddies rotating around each other. The overall circulation is elongated south to north.

Ndg, you are wrong. The 5 am update said there.was.an llc. I trust the nhc on this

caneman · #146 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:23 am

Dean4Storms wrote:That LLC is pushing more NE this morning and is about to get under the convection........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

agreed dean. The llc has moved more closely to the convection. More of a nne movement. Im not saying it will develop but 5 the nhc did say conditiins were moderate and did verify our thoughts that there was.an llc.

#147 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:25 am

NDG wrote::uarrow: ASCAT does not lie, it never had a well defined LLC, you guys want to ignore the evidence, I am not the only one that saw the eddies rotating around each other. The overall circulation is elongated south to north.

OK, an elongated circulation if that will make you happy. :roll:

Is that "elongated circulation" at the surface or in other words Low Level?

caneman · #148 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:27 am

Dean4Storms wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: ASCAT does not lie, it never had a well defined LLC, you guys want to ignore the evidence, I am not the only one that saw the eddies rotating around each other. The overall circulation is elongated south to north.

OK, an elongated circulation if that will make you happy.

Is that "elongated circulation" at the surface or in other words Low Level?

at 5 am the nhc referred.to it as a llc. Case closed.

#149 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:29 am

Maybe just maybe this will shut him down Caneman....

NHC
8:05am Tropical Discussion.......

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N96W
COVERS THE GULF W OF 89W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES INTO THE GULF
THROUGH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 28N94W TO 25N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO OVER SW LOUISIANA AND E
TEXAS BETWEEN 92W-96W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA NEAR 22N84 THEN INTO THE W ATLC OVER MIAMI
FLORIDA COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 89W. A 1007 MB LOW IS
N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N88W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S OVER THE YUCATAN TO 20N88W. >>>>THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NE OF THE LOW.<<<<< SCATTERED
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 21N83W ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N85W.

caneman · #150 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:29 am

Since the nhc.backed down chances, it
Probably won't have a chance.to develop but it looks like we will be.getting pounded with rain for the next couple of days.

#151 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:36 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

"For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven, located about midway between the central Bahamas
and Bermuda.

1. An area of low pressure centered over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico, about 300 miles west of Key West, is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends from western
Cuba northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The CIRCULATION
associated with this system has become a little less well defined
since yesterday, and upper-level winds are not favorable for
significant development."

Was that circulation that was BETTER defined yesterday a Low Level Circulation? There's your answer!

stormlover2013 · #152 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:39 am

this thing was only going to be a rain maker the whole entire time, the ingredients just wasn't there!!!!

#153 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:40 am

If I lived near Tampa northward I would pay close attention to this today with the apparent LLC now on a move more NE into the area of convection. Even noticing convection now firing south of the week circulation!

#154 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:40 am

Discuss 99L BUT KEEP PERSONAL ATTACKS OUT OF IT.

We can have differences of opinions without insulting each other.

#155 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:46 am

LOL, You guys want to see what a real well defined LLC looks like, look at the visible satellite of TD 11.
I hate when a season is so slow and we have to argue over a naked circulation, lol instead of bigger threats.

caneman · #156 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:52 am

No one said it was pretty ndg but it is an llc.

#157 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:53 am

NDG wrote::uarrow: LOL, You guys want to see what a real well defined LLC looks like, look at the visible satellite of TD 11.
I hate when a season is so slow and we have to argue over a naked circulation, lol instead of bigger threats.

Yep, a larger better defined LLC with a closed low at the surface. We call that a Tropical Cyclone!

#158 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:01 am

Dean4Storms wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: LOL, You guys want to see what a real well defined LLC looks like, look at the visible satellite of TD 11.
I hate when a season is so slow and we have to argue over a naked circulation, lol instead of bigger threats.

Yep, a larger better defined LLC with a closed low at the surface. We call that a Tropical Cyclone!

And yes, 99L's circulation is nothing close to TD 11 as shown on the ASCAT and surface reports this morning.

#159 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:07 am

I rest my case, I don't know how much more evidence I have to show

caneman · #160 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:08 am

Ugg, im not going to keep arguing with you about it ndg take it up with the nhc. This is petty. Let's move on.

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