ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

these model intensity forecasts are beyond laughable. I have no clue why some here are taking these are more than entertainment

I 100% agree I do not post often, and by no means am I a Met you . But so many writing this off as if it was already well north of us is nuts. For one it has not even begun to get stronger, it is still being driven by High pressure to the West or WNW. it is still 5 days out which we all know models are not that great that far out. But for some reason a lot of u r saying recurve. I think the smart thing to do is see once we get a solid storm with a good COC then see what the models do.

[northjaxpro]

these model intensity forecasts are beyond laughable. I have no clue why some here are taking these are more than entertainment

I 100% agree I do not post often, and by no means am I a Met you . But so many writing this off as if it was already well north of us is nuts. For one it has not even begun to get stronger, it is still being driven by High pressure to the West or WNW. it is still 5 days out which we all know models are not that great that far out. But for some reason a lot of u r saying recurve. I think the smart thing to do is see once we get a solid storm with a good COC then see what the models do.

Smart post and I totally agree with this!!!

[gatorcane]

00Z Guidance:

[Miami Storm Tracker]

these model intensity forecasts are beyond laughable. I have no clue why some here are taking these are more than entertainment

I 100% agree I do not post often, and by no means am I a Met you . But so many writing this off as if it was already well north of us is nuts. For one it has not even begun to get stronger, it is still being driven by High pressure to the West or WNW. it is still 5 days out which we all know models are not that great that far out. But for some reason a lot of u r saying recurve. I think the smart thing to do is see once we get a solid storm with a good COC then see what the models do.

Smart post and I totally agree with this!!!

Thank you NorthJaxpro

[gatorcane]

Two images showing just how much the HWRF has shifted east from last night's 00Z run:

00Z 8/26:


18Z 8/26:

[northjaxpro]

You are welcome Miami Storm Tracker. All the reasonable scenarios are still on the table with Erika, which most have been covered in detail on this forum. There are so may variables yet to be determined, which is why it is still too soon to know what will happen even 5 days out right now. Models will windshield wiper effect again (I can rest assured of that) and even right now, we still don't have a fully, vertically stacked tropical cyclone at this time. Yes, that could certainly change in a couple of days provided Erika stays intact as she heads toward an seemingly favorable enviromnet to develop north of the Greater Antilles.

I have learned from years of experience the difficulty of forecasting these tropical cyclones and how these systems seemingly march to their own drums. I am expecting more changes in the next 48 hours. But, right now, it is just still too soon to make declarations about the intensity of Erika and where she will eventually end up going.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

:uarrow: You are welcome Miami Storm Tracker. All the reasonable scenarios are still on the table with Erika, which most have been covered in detail on this forum. There are so may variables yet to be determined, which is why it is still too soon to know what will happen 5 days out right now. Models will windshield wiper effect again (I can rest assured of that) and even right now, we still don't have a fully, vertically stacked tropical cyclone at this time. Yes, that could certainly change in a couple of days provided Erika stays intact as she heads toward an seemingly favorable enviromnet to develop north of the Greater Antilles.

I have learned from years of experience the difficulty of forecasting these tropical cyclones and how these systems seemingly march to their own drums. I am expecting more changes in the next 48 hours. But, right now, too soon to make declarations about the intensity of Erika and where she will eventually end up going.

Could not agree more with you.

[otowntiger]

00Z Guidance:

Nhc likely to shift even further east. At this point I beleive we are past flip flopping and wind shield wiping. Too many consistently east shifting models to ignore. I agree with those who are saying Florida will dodge another one.

Disclaimer: I am not a professional meteorologist and I am only expressing my amateur opinion. Don't make plans based on what I say, lol.

[toad strangler]

Northjaxpro FTW. I mean, lets be honest, at least 30% of each page is unreadable gibberish. So frustrating.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Luck,

Everyone here has their opinion which is what this site is all about. But for me this is really way to early to have this as a for sure outcome.

[Steve H.]

yes. many of these models are for the deep tropics and don't have validity in shorter term forecasts.

[TheProfessor]

00Z Guidance:

http://i.imgur.com/wkRYhtt.png
http://i.imgur.com/1errYWx.png

Nhc likely to shift even further east. At this point I beleive we are past flip flopping and wind shield wiping. Too many consistently east shifting models to ignore. I agree with those who are saying Florida will dodge another one.

Disclaimer: I am not a professional meteorologist and I am only expressing my amateur opinion. Don't make plans based on what I say, lol.

I wouldn't say the models are past flip flopping just yet, at least for the next 48 hours, like others had said, we need to see how Erika is doing when she gets past Puerto Rico and into the Bahamas.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

00Z Guidance:

http://i.imgur.com/wkRYhtt.png
http://i.imgur.com/1errYWx.png

Nhc likely to shift even further east. At this point I beleive we are past flip flopping and wind shield wiping. Too many consistently east shifting models to ignore. I agree with those who are saying Florida will dodge another one.

Disclaimer: I am not a professional meteorologist and I am only expressing my amateur opinion. Don't make plans based on what I say, lol.

I wouldn't say the models are past flip flopping just yet, at least for the next 48 hours, like others had said, we need to see how Erika is doing when she gets past Puerto Rico and into the Bahamas.

Agreed.

[Stormcenter]

5 days out and it's done deal in your opinion? I'm sorry but respectfully I disagree. IMO

00Z Guidance:

Nhc likely to shift even further east. At this point I beleive we are past flip flopping and wind shield wiping. Too many consistently east shifting models to ignore. I agree with those who are saying Florida will dodge another one.

Disclaimer: I am not a professional meteorologist and I am only expressing my amateur opinion. Don't make plans based on what I say, lol.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Wow,

With all due respect at least pay attention to who posted that. A Pro Met, have a little respect dude.

[NDG]

If we know and even the NHC knows that the GFDL is so right biased at days 4-5 if not 3-5 why they don't take it out of the equation when it comes to the TVCN, TVCA, ... consensus?

[Steve H.]

I think they really do. That's why they gave much greater weight to the GFS and EC in the last advisory.

[northjaxpro]

The EURO runs later tonight are really, really going to be extremely interesting to say the least!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I think they really do. That's why they gave much greater weight to the GFS and EC in the last advisory.

Agree with you and even more so when they are trying to figure out the future intensity of a storm.

[Weatherlover12]

Why are they shifting east? I thought their was a ridge?
I also thought it would go more west since it's barely hanging on?
It's hard enough getting local people to even think about Erika but I'm nervous and afraid because we don't what's happening.
Do you think it's going to flop back west?
The weekend is coming up and I want to prepare but I'm so confused and unsure. I think everyone feels this way.

WeatherLover12- Not a pro met.. Just a citizen