ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Erika could be pulling a Danny. That new vortex might be a decoupled mid-level reflection of the weakened surface spiral.


I don't think it is a relocated center because they usually don't relocate anti-poleward. Plus you can make out a very indistinct surface spiral moving along by the trop points.


The convection stayed symmetrical and didn't diminish like yesterday.


We can only see how it plays out.


Edit: I see NHC initialized the Caribbean vortex.

The problem thus far has been the MLC decoupled from the northern LLC. What if on a southern more westward track it loses the MLC. Would that enable it to form a new MLC on the northern side? I know it usually goes in reverse.

[ROCK]

Not to be a broken record (what's a record), the NHC did say that dissipation was also a possibility - the GFS has shown that more than once, the past several days...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree Frank....center relo it look like to me but hard to discern the center with all the shear tops. The EURO has also shown this a few runs back.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[TheStormExpert]

With the sudden WNW movement expected but it's still heading West one would think that dissipation is becoming more and more possible.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Agreed Tolakram. Just catching up.


If it shifts west again Erika will weaken over Hispaniola.


If it keeps shifting west Florida could be in the crosshairs again.

The latest NHC track has me in Stuart about 35 miles from the center. I'd say that is in the crosshairs.

[Stormcenter]

Can we all just be honest and say we don't know if there will be an Erika in 1-5 days and if there is we don't have a clue where it's going anyway?

[Sanibel]

SSD is still showing the original trop points and I can see a surface vortex following it. That vortex will either vaporize or it will continue as the main center.

[MGC]

I'm confused, the NHC in its 11am discussion states Erika is moving at 270 degrees, due west. Looking at the forecast track it appears NHC has Erika moving NW. I don't see the NW motion. I would venture to say that the cyclone will pass south of PR and likely impact Hispaniola....MGC

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Can we all just be honest and say we don't know if there will be an Erika in 1-5 days and if there is we don't have a clue where it's going anyway?

I actually think the three most reliable models(Euro, GFS, HWRF) are becoming more and more consistant with each run. Intensity is more the wild card.

[Stormcenter]

Yeah it doesn't make sense.

I'm confused, the NHC in its 11am discussion states Erika is moving at 270 degrees, due west. Looking at the forecast track it appears NHC has Erika moving NW. I don't see the NW motion. I would venture to say that the cyclone will pass south of PR and likely impact Hispaniola....MGC

[stormlover2013]

Big runs here coming up with all 3, I think we will get a good idea

[psyclone]

After reading the latest discussion, I'm sticking with my earlier comment - dissipation is a possibility, as the other NHC forecasters mentioned in the past couple of days...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Even if it does open up the potential for a reformation exists. It's late August and stuff happens and can happen fast. I remind people that a slow season does not = no season. as of now Erika amounts to primarily a heavy rain threat and that would be the case whether it's designated as a disturbance or a depression or a low end storm...the sensible weather isn't much different in either of those scenarios.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[painkillerr]

I have been very disappointed by much of the discussion of Erika in the past few days ONLY focusing on Florida and the USA. I have asked for some analysis of what you all might think could be the effects of Erika on the islands..I didn't get much response.
I realize there are only a handful of islanders here.
But, while, you all are discussing possible impacts 0n Florida, here is what is happening in Dominica.
They are getting hit hard. Lots of flooding and damage

Well said!

Florida is 5 days away and we have this thing on top of us here and no useful information about local conditions. All Florida! C'mon guys...Focus!

[tailgater]

The track looks flawed in my Very amateur opinion




Might well in up in the same place but it'll have some mountains to deal with if it holds on.

[TheStormExpert]

After reading the latest discussion, I'm sticking with my earlier comment - dissipation is a possibility, as the other NHC forecasters mentioned in the past couple of days...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Even if it does open up the potential for a reformation exists. It's late August and stuff happens and can happen fast. I remind people that a slow season does not = no season. as of now Erika amounts to primarily a heavy rain threat and that would be the case whether it's designated as a disturbance or a depression or a low end storm...the sensible weather isn't much different in either of those scenarios.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Take Invest 94L heading into the FL Big Bend region earlier this month as a good example as to why it doesn't have to be an organized Tropical Cyclone to cause problems.

[AtlanticWind]

I think that if the that vortex that spun out of the convection is the true center than Erika future is not too bright. Regeneration might be possible after the DR but not likely.

[floridasun78]

i saw few here having south fl in clear look now it back into south fl again

[Sanibel]

The GOM front is stationary but is definitely a hard stop for any cyclones headed towards it.

[Blown Away]

I have been very disappointed by much of the discussion of Erika in the past few days ONLY focusing on Florida and the USA. I have asked for some analysis of what you all might think could be the effects of Erika on the islands..I didn't get much response.
I realize there are only a handful of islanders here.
But, while, you all are discussing possible impacts 0n Florida, here is what is happening in Dominica.
They are getting hit hard. Lots of flooding and damage

Well said!

Florida is 5 days away and we have this thing on top of us here and no useful information about local conditions. All Florida! C'mon guys...Focus!

We all have concerns for you guys... There are 72,000 people in Dominca... 5 million in SFL... It's not intentional, it's just statistics... Very sad news...

[Blizzard96x]

Not likely this thing survives over DR IMO.

[Stormcenter]

How can Erika follow the NHC's track if she is moving west right now? She would have to be moving NW right now. What am I missing here? I'm not buying anything right now. IMO