ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[painkillerr]

I have been very disappointed by much of the discussion of Erika in the past few days ONLY focusing on Florida and the USA. I have asked for some analysis of what you all might think could be the effects of Erika on the islands..I didn't get much response.
I realize there are only a handful of islanders here.
But, while, you all are discussing possible impacts 0n Florida, here is what is happening in Dominica.
They are getting hit hard. Lots of flooding and damage

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNahWNHWsAAoovW.jpg

Well said!

Florida is 5 days away and we have this thing on top of us here and no useful information about local conditions. All Florida! C'mon guys...Focus!

Look at that video sharing how worrying, what a nightmare in Dominica

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO0fm2OsI8c

Very sad!.. We are up next in PR.

[floridasun78]

gov of fl now talking about Erika look like feel this coming to fl gov is worry

[Hurricane Andrew]

Look at that satillite presentation, starting to wrap up where the MLC is. My guess is that a new LLC is forming there, the old one doesn't appear to be as vigorous as it was.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Sanibel]

There's what looks like a spent center approaching the Virgins.


Convection looks improved with outflow feathering. A sign of better organization as contrary as that seems.

[Nimbus]

I wonder if that little naked eddy racing west really is the primary center?
There is an ULL in the west Caribbean providing shear so if whatever is left of Erika stays south she might dissipate.

[curtadams]

Even if it does open up the potential for a reformation exists.

This was showing up in one of the HWRF runs. It dissipated Erika's LLC as it moved over the Greater Antilles but maintained a broad low with strong winds and convection and as soon as it started moving away from the Greater Antilles it reformed an LLC.

[tailgater]

Could tops warming quickly
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Sanibel]

I wonder if that little naked eddy racing west really is the primary center?
There is an ULL in the west Caribbean providing shear so if whatever is left of Erika stays south she might dissipate.

It could be. There's surface spirals reaching down to it. Like Danny, Erika might have bumped south upon entering the Caribbean and the steering currents predicted by NHC were not what they thought.

[AutoPenalti]

So with the quick strengthening models could push back east again? I just don't see it. The ridge is still mighty strong and that trough has been all bark but no bite so far.

[wxman57]

I don't think that little naked swirl will survive. If the center reforms farther south then it's probably going to cross over the DR, which should weaken it considerably. I'd say chances of a Florida impact are increasing, due to the weaker storm. It could just be remnants of Erika reaching Florida, though, as if Erika tracks over the DR then it may track over northern Cuba as well, keeping it from organizing.

[Aric Dunn]

one this for sure.. its slowed down quite a bit.. that center appears to be barely moving now. some sort of reorganizing has been going on for the last 5 hours or so.

unless we see convection fire near or over the center sometime soon I would expect something to try and get going further into the convection..

[HURRICANELONNY]

That trof to its west is shearing erika pretty good this afternoon. Or commonly referred to as Tutt.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[curtadams]

There's what looks like a spent center approaching the Virgins.

Convection looks improved with outflow feathering. A sign of better organization as contrary as that seems.

This looks like a classic separated-but-linked LLC/MLC pair. I've seen it several times with strong shear. They continue to move together even though separated by a considerable distance. What I think is happening is that the LLC is lofting warmed moistened air which gets sheared over to the MLC to feed it (which is how it can maintain such massive convection indefinitely). The MLC can't create a new LLC in the presence of the LLC's winds, but it can generate vortices which merge with the LLC, keeping it going (otherwise it would fade out within 24 hours).

This kind of thing can go on for quite a while, although a moderate increase in shear can break it apart. If broken either the LLC or the MLC could generate a new storm, or neither, or maybe even both (I've seen models do it but I don't recall that actually ever happening).

If so the LLC is the "real deal" windwise and the MLC is the "real deal" rainwise.

edit: just south of the LLC you can see a line of clouds go SSE to the MLC. This is the "choo-choo train" effect I usually see in this kind of situation, and increases my confidence that this is what we're seeing.

[txwatcher91]

Looks like the LLC has slowed and is beginning to move NW from the last few frames available.

[psyclone]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the NHC reduces peak intensity forecasts under HU on the next advisory.

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[deltadog03]

I hate systems like these...lol such a mess...This may still not make it anything past DR and PR

[Evil Jeremy]

I hate systems like these...lol such a mess...This may still not make it anything past DR and PR

I love systems like these. I mean, they are an absolute nightmares for the professionals, but it's a fun roller coaster for the amateurs.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the close up there are at least 4 vorticies that I see clearly

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[JPmia]

I wouldn't be surprised if she goes further west for the next few hours based on what I am reading about the center reformation.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring a 3hr movement toward 272 deg at 8 kts. I still don't know if that little eddy will survive.