ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the NHC reduces peak intensity forecasts under HU on the next advisory.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

conditions are expected to be very favorable through in the Bahamas. Only caveat is going over Hispaniola

[ROCK]

that little Eddy is still feeing the MLC but I dont know for how much longer. It is racing away at a good clip.

[TimeZone]

It appears to be clinging to life at this point. Horrendous looking little storm. I'm not even confident this little storm will survive.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the NHC reduces peak intensity forecasts under HU on the next advisory.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

conditions are expected to be very favorable through in the Bahamas. Only caveat is going over Hispaniola

yeah, that's a giant caveat, especially this time of the year...something could ramp up very quickly. Very tough call for sure.

[Hammy]

First check of the day, this this reminds me of Isaac in 2012 now (albeit a heavily sheared version).

My personal confidence is increasing, given the worsening shear, mountains, and direction of movement, that this will not make it out of the Caribbean. It'll probably come ashore tomorrow in the Dominican Republic at this rate and dissipate (and should this happen I think a serious look needs to be taken at the model performance.)

[PTrackerLA]

Latest visible shows convection refiring just SE of the LLC so maybe it will remain dominant.

[galaxy401]

And here we go with the roller coaster in the forum with either "this storm is dying and will be gone tomorrow" or "this storm could hold itself and potentially strengthen later" camps. Storms like Erika are frustrating due to the unpredictability future of the storm but that can result in people pending a lot of different and interesting theories.

[shortwave]

Interaction with the islands might help it pick a LLC. looks like 2 of them causing an elongation towards the north. Couldn't see much strengthening due to that regardless of shear. real interesting to see how this evolves.

[Aric Dunn]

latest recon fix is due north of the previous fix.. the center is being pulled on by every convective burst as well as likely a secondary weak vort within the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

if you run the loop.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

as the convection to the east begin to build the circ stalled and is now being pulled back/stalling.. this will likely happen again and again with the mid level nw shear..

[AutoPenalti]

And here we go with the roller coaster in the forum with either "this storm is dying and will be gone tomorrow" or "this storm could hold itself and potentially strengthen later" camps. Storms like Erika are frustrating due to the unpredictability future of the storm but that can result in people pending a lot of different and interesting theories.

Is this the norm when we have storms like this?

[Steve H.]

I agree with Ptracker, seems the Convection is coming back from the SE toward the LCC.

[eastcoastFL]

And here we go with the roller coaster in the forum with either "this storm is dying and will be gone tomorrow" or "this storm could hold itself and potentially strengthen later" camps. Storms like Erika are frustrating due to the unpredictability future of the storm but that can result in people pending a lot of different and interesting theories.

Is this the norm when we have storms like this?

Oh yes it is for sure!

[AdamFirst]

latest recon fix is due north of the previous fix.. the center is being pulled on by every convective burst as well as likely a secondary weak vort within the convection.

So I'm not crazy for wobble watching. I was seeing that there was a bit of a north tug

[Hurricaneman]

Is it possible if this continues west longer that it may miss Hispaniola to the south and go between Hispaniola and Cuba

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Aric Dunn]

latest recon fix is due north of the previous fix.. the center is being pulled on by every convective burst as well as likely a secondary weak vort within the convection.

So I'm not crazy for wobble watching. I was seeing that there was a bit of a north tug

well for once the wobble watching is actually relevant lol .. means across PR or DR ...

[Aric Dunn]

Is it possible if this continues west longer that it may miss Hispaniola to the south and go between Hispaniola and Cuba

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

very unlikely .. the break in the ridge if it were to get south of DR would pretty much draw it straight across that island.

[gatorcane]

Does anybody find it interesting that Erika maintained this giant fireball of convection since late yesterday? That tells me Erika means business - she just needs that window of opportunity of favorable conditions and she could be off to the races. Let us hope the big mountains of the Greater Antilles can disrupt her enough. As some have noted those waters in the Bahamas are approaching 90F in some spots. It's dynamite there waiting to explode. So many a system have exploded over those waters.

[Aric Dunn]

Does anybody find it interesting that Erika maintained this giant fireball of convection since late yesterday? That tells me Erika means business - she just needs that window of opportunity of favorable conditions and she could be off to the races. Let us hope the big mountains of the Greater Antilles can disrupt her enough. As some have noted those waters in the Bahamas are approaching 90F in some spots. It's dynamite there waiting to explode. So many a system have exploded over those waters.

wouldn't say odd.. the mid level shear is nw while the upper level are mostly Sw plenty of vertical instability to sustain convection like it has. its just not organized..

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the last hour or 2 its heading NNW and getting back on track based on radar

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products