ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

Eye starting to pop again on latest IR frames.

[Andrew92]

So the threat to NC has gone down?

I would say no. There is still a lot of uncertainty over what this will do. Best to keep your guard up until this thing has passed.

-Andrew92

[Hurricaneman]

So the threat to NC has gone down?

Not until the models all shift away from there so stay vigilant and hope for the best

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[emeraldislenc]

Thanks

[TimeZone]

What an ugly storm.

[emeraldislenc]

Our county ES Control Group will meet at 9:30 am on Thursday.

[rickybobby]

Per the 2 am update winds are 120 and moving sw at 5 mph

[northjaxpro]

Pressure at 948 mb now as well.

[FireRat]

Jeez, this storm sure goes to show that El Nino isn't all there is to a hurricane season! Who would've thought we'd be dealing with a Major Hurricane striking the Bahamas on OCT 1st this year, wow I'm amazed!

It is also uncomfortably close to South FL, so we probably should be on watch for some effects from this thing, such as rough surf, coastal flooding, and perhaps some feeder bands...especially if it dunks further sw than forecast. Just my opinion, please refer to the NHC for official forecasts! Even though this is a tricky one!

it found the sweet spot in this hostile year just like Andrew did in '92, but of course with an expected different track.

Joaquin is not jokin!

[caneman]

Actually still moving at 6 mph. Now down to 23.5

[Alyono]

Jeez, this storm sure goes to show that El Nino isn't all there is to a hurricane season! Who would've thought we'd be dealing with a Major Hurricane striking the Bahamas on OCT 1st this year, wow I'm amazed!

It is also uncomfortably close to South FL, so we probably should be on watch for some effects from this thing, such as rough surf, coastal flooding, and perhaps some feeder bands...especially if it dunks further sw than forecast. Just my opinion, please refer to the NHC for official forecasts! Even though this is a tricky one!

it found the sweet spot in this hostile year just like Andrew did in '92, but of course with an expected different track.

Joaquin is not jokin!

If it weren't for the el niño, this would have been a historically bad season. The Atlantic itself became quite favorable with unexpected warming in the east Atlantic and moisture returning. Danny and Erika would have been devastating. There would have been other systems developing as well

[LarryWx]

Actually still moving at 6 mph. Now down to 23.5

So, he has continued SW for the last 3 hours. This means that once again he is more than likely going to go south of the furthest south track point.

11 PM NHC track:

12H 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W

So, he would have to move due west from here to not be south of the 12 hour point of 23.5 N, 73.8 W. Highly unlikely imo.

[FireRat]

That's true Alyono, this could've been a tremendously severe season if it weren't for the phenomenon and its effects. This might have turned out like 2004. still, Joaquin found a way! hopefully the NE Bahamas don't get crushed later today into Friday! There are record warm SSTs in the area now.

[windnrain]

[northjaxpro]

Larry, I think Joaquin may dip as far south as at or maybe just slightly below 22 degrees latitude before finally making the northward turn on Friday. Do you and the others out there see this possibiltity?

[LarryWx]

Larry, I think Joaquin may dip as far south as at or maybe just slightly below 22 degrees latitude before finally making the northward turn on Friday. Do you and the others out there see this possibiltity?

Wow, that would really make the models' initializations out of kilter! However, I wouldn't be shocked as of now.

[caneman]

Actually still moving at 6 mph. Now down to 23.5

So, he has continued SW for the last 3 hours. This means that once again he is more than likely going to go south of the furthest south track point.

11 PM NHC track:

12H 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W

So, he would have to move due west from here to not be south of the 12 hour point of 23.5 N, 73.8 W. Highly unlikely imo.

yes, I agree. It's alarming how far south it is dropping. If it gets much stronger, it would seem all bets would be off on direction. It's not behaving the way it's suppose to. Imho.

[northjaxpro]

If that happened, I would anticipate Joaquin to take an approach a bit closer to the U.S. Eastern Seaboard as he pulls northward, but the cut-off Low forecast to develop the next 36-48 hours will be the critical component as to the future track of Joaquin. If it is a negatively tilted cut-off trough, then odds definitely would favor a U.S. landfall in that scenario.

[FireRat]

This storm's track brings memories of 2008 Ike's crazy SW dive when it was supposed to move wnw. Don't think this will be a repeat but it might force the models to shift the track and timing significantly IMO

[bahamaswx]

This storm's track brings memories of 2008 Ike's crazy SW dive when it was supposed to move wnw. Don't think this will be a repeat but it might force the models to shift the track and timing significantly IMO

Yep. Comparing this to Ike makes me wonder if there's a trend in models insisting that southerly motion will stop quite a bit sooner that it actually does. Ike continued to dive WSW for much longer than was forecast. But I can't think of any other examples---storms moving away from the poles are unusual.