ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Look how the shear is dropping even in the northern Caribbean.

[ronjon]

Shear intensity did drop 5 kts where Danny is now according to CIMSS. Center tucked back under the convection this morning. CDO more circular too. Looks like Gustywind is in store for tropical storm conditions with heavy rain later today.

[tolakram]

Latest analysis from CIMSS

[xironman]

Looks like the worst of the dry air is to the northwest while the shear is from the southwest. So he may survive for a while because the worst air is not getting pushed into the center. We will see.

[ronjon]

Anything picked up on Guadelope radar yet?

[ronjon]

Looks like the worst of the dry air is to the northwest while the shear is from the southwest. So he may survive for a while because the worst air is not getting pushed into the center. We will see.

Yeah the more westerly movement further south seems to have helped the cyclone for the short term avoid the worst of the shear.

[AJC3]

Anything picked up on Guadelope radar yet?

It appears as though the Guadeloupe radar is down. Just some showers on the Martinique radar.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

[northjaxpro]

Danny's vigorous, exposed LLC is just south/southwest of the convection. The pulsation of convection of a sheared tropical cyclone is generally an expected occurance. Danny is really fighting to survive in the midst of such hostile conditions to his credit. Eventually, he will lose this war. However, when the time comes for Bones to make his appearance, the proclaimed epithet should be "He died but fought with valor"

Danny definitely deserves that recognition. An amazing tropical cyclone for the meteorological history books for sure!!!

[gatorcane]

Looks like Danny maybe even moving a hair south of due west now, looking at the latest SAT loops, really feeling the ridge building in now.

[cycloneye]

Anything picked up on Guadelope radar yet?

It appears as though the Guadeloupe radar is down. Just some showers on the Martinique radar.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

Tony and ronjon,I think this is the best radar around,the Barbados composite of Eastern Caribbean.


http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1440336985

[Gustywind]

Anything picked up on Guadelope radar yet?

It appears as though the Guadeloupe radar is down. Just some showers on the Martinique radar.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

Tony and ronjon,I think this is the best radar around,the Barbados composite of Eastern Caribbean.


http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1440336985

Thanks Cycloneye

[Weatherboy1]

Thought I'd wake up to the ole "naked swirl" here, but Danny is fighting on! Lol. Wonder if the same thing will happen on Monday?

[SouthFLTropics]

Danny's vigorous, exposed LLC is just south/southwest of the convection. The pulsation of convection of a sheared tropical cyclone is generally an expected occurance. Danny is really fighting to survive in the midst of such hostile conditions to his credit. Eventually, he will lose this war. However, when the time comes for Bones to make his appearance, the proclaimed epithet should be "He died but fought with valor"

Danny definitely deserves that recognition. An amazing tropical cyclone for the meteorological history books for sure!!!

Perhaps Danny deserves another famous Star Trek caption before Bones comes in..."Live long and prosper".

SFT

[ronjon]

Yeah gator storm seems to have picked up in forward speed too.

[northjaxpro]

Well, talking about fighting valiently, Danny is really doing that this.morning. A closer detailed look at satelitte imagery the past couple of hours look to show that the convection is actually getting closer to the LLC, almost as if the LLC is trying to tuck back under that deep convection. Is it my eyes playong tricks on me and that is cirrus blowoff obscuring the LLC? Or is it actually convection trying to get back over what was the exposed LLC?

[gatorcane]

I think the convection is trying to tuck itself by under the convection. All this system needs is some favorable conditions and no reason why it couldn't take off again. Question is, will there be any for Danny to take advantage of in the future?

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1145 UTC 15.6N 56.7W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
23/0545 UTC 15.4N 55.3W T2.5/3.5 DANNY
22/2345 UTC 15.6N 54.0W T3.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1745 UTC 16.0N 52.4W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1145 UTC 15.4N 51.4W T3.5/4.5 DANNY
22/0545 UTC 15.1N 50.0W T4.0/4.5 DANNY
21/2345 UTC 14.9N 49.3W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.4W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY

[ronjon]

The 12z suite of intensity models nearly all are showing a dramatic upswing in strength after the next 48-72 hours. GFDL at CAT 3 status at 5 days. Not sure we can write Danny off just yet.

[AJC3]

Tony and ronjon,I think this is the best radar around,the Barbados composite of Eastern Caribbean.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1440336985

That's a great mosaic, Luis! It makes it even more unfortunate that the Martinique radar is not operational. Several years ago, the CMO (Caribbean Meteorological Organization), in one of their meetings about the Caribbean Radar Network Project, listed their objective of developing a mosaic of all the radars (as well as a single collection point for the data. In fits, and starts it appears that they are working toward that end. I see that Meteo France also has a lower-definition network .

There are a lot of radars in the Caribbean, more than most people realize (unless one or two have been scrapped)! As we're painfully aware, several of these frequently go out of service, or the data connectivity to the web ceases (or both). I think we all dream of a day when all of the Caribbean radars will be up and running at once during hurricane season, and having the ability to look at all of the data in one nice decent resolution mosaic. Unfortunately, the financial reality of maintaining radars makes that day unlikely anytime in the near future. But it's a lot better than what we used to have.




Ok, back to the Danny discussion....

[tolakram]

Live visible loop. Danny is picking a bad time to put up a fight.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-58&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray