WPAC: MEKKHALA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MEKKHALA - Typhoon

#161 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:20 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Mekkhala is the first January typhoon to actually develop in January since 2005's Typhoon Kulap...

Kulap peaked at 65 knots...

The first since Roy actually... Kulap is still debated whether it was or not. (JMA STS)



Remember both don't use the same wind speeds...JTWC is 1 min JMA 10 min so a 10 min will always be lower...
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Re: WPAC: MEKKHALA - Typhoon

#162 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:29 pm

WOAH!

What a fact!

Besides Kulap in 2005, the only other typhoon to actually develop in January goes way back to 1992's Typhoon Axel and 1990's Koryn both peaking at 70 and 75 knots...

What a start to the year!

Of course haven't checked years before that :wink:
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#163 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:31 pm

:uarrow: We use 10-min official in S2K. Even cycloneye (moderator) mentioned it.
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Re:

#164 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:35 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote::uarrow: We use 10-min official in S2K. Even cycloneye (moderator) mentioned it.


Ok :lol:
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#165 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:36 pm

Disappointing. They say it maintained its strength.... :roll:

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN No. 9
FOR: TROPICAL STORM “‪#‎AmangPH‬”
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 17 JANUARY 2015
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5PM today)
TROPICAL STORM “AMANG” HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO EASTERN SAMAR.
• Tropical Storm “AMANG” may hit Borongan City, Eastern Samar this afternoon or early evening.
• Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5 – 20 mm per hour (heavy - intense) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.
• Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with PSWS#2 and #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
• Ocean waves may reach up to 9 meters within the diameter of the storm.
• Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.
• In the next 6 hours, there is a possibility of raising Public Storm Signal # 1 over Bulacan, Nueva Ecija and Aurora.
• The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concrned are advised to take appropriate actions.
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “AMANG” was estimated based on Doppler Radar and all available data at 120 km East Northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar (11.8°N, 126.5°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 100 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 130 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 17 kph.
Forecast Positions
• 24 hour (Tomorrow morning): in the vicinity of Legazpi City.
• 48 hour (Monday morning): 50 km Northeast of Baler, Aurora.
• 72 hour (Tuesday morning): 235 km Northeast of Aparri Cagayan.
Public Storm Warning Signal No. 2
(Winds of 61-100 kph is expected in at least 24 hrs)
LUZON
Catanduanes, Albay, Camarines Sur, Sorsogon, Masbate, Burias Island Incl. Ticao Island.
VISAYAS
Northern Samar, Eastern Samar and Samar and Leyte incl. Biliran.
IMPACTS OF THE WIND
• Rice and corn maybe adversely affected
• Few large trees uprooted
• Large number of nipa and cogon houses partially or totally unroofed and old galvanized iron roofs may roll off.
• Billboards/Signage may roll off
• Travel by all types of sea vessels and aircrafts are risky
These areas will have stormy weather with heavy to intense rains. Residents along coastal areas are alerted against possible Storm surges of less than 2 meters.
Public Storm Warning Signal No. 1
(Winds of 30-60 kph is expected in at least 36 hrs)
LUZON
Camarines Norte, Quezon Incl Polillo Island, Laguna, Rizal, Batangas, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro and Romblon .
VISAYAS
Northern Iloilo, Northern part of Negros Occidental, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu incl. Cebu City, Bantayan Island, Camotes Island, Capiz and Aklan.
MINDANAO
Dinagat Island
IMPACTS OF THE WIND
• Twigs and branches of trees maybe broken
• Some banana plants may tilt or land flat on the ground
• Rice in flowering stage may suffer significant damage
• Some nipa and cogon houses maybe partially unroofed
• Sea travel of small sea crafts and fishing boats is risky
These areas will have occasional rains with occasional gusty winds.
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Re: WPAC: MEKKHALA - Typhoon

#166 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:45 pm

Last major typhoon Cat 3 or higher to actually develop in January occurred in 1988, 17 years ago...Typhoon Roy when he peaked at Category 4 115 knots!
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Re: WPAC: MEKKHALA - Typhoon

#167 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:54 pm

Saved visible of TY Mekkhala.
Image
Last edited by jaguarjace on Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#168 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:59 pm

Actual center is east of Guiuan.... Microwave eyewall or moat not vertically aligned.
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Re: WPAC: MEKKHALA - Typhoon

#169 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:05 pm

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#170 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:06 pm

Loop

Image
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#171 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:18 pm

:uarrow: Agreed

Here is an interesting comparison I made between last year and this year with "SINULOG" typhoons. Exactly the same time last year (different dates - but both on a Saturday)

Image
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#172 Postby ejeraldmc » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:20 pm

Image

Image
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Re:

#173 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:21 pm

ejeraldmc wrote:Image

Image

That's Amazing
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Re: WPAC: MEKKHALA - Typhoon

#174 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:29 pm

Images from tacloban for Pope Francis Visit...Probrably a first for any Pope visiting a country in the world when a typhoon is threatening...

Image
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Re: WPAC: MEKKHALA - Typhoon

#175 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:32 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 JAN 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 11:24:58 N Lon : 126:13:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.6mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 4.1

Center Temp : -73.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 71km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.6 degrees
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Re: WPAC: MEKKHALA - Typhoon

#176 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:35 pm

Image

Samar under the Gun!
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Re: WPAC: MEKKHALA - Typhoon

#177 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:38 pm

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#178 Postby ManilaTC » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:40 pm

Pope trip now cut short.
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#179 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:44 pm

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#180 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:47 pm

I'm watching the live footage of Papal visit in Tacloban...looks like the winds are now up TS strength...is it really safe for the Pope to fly back to Manila?
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