EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops warming on SW side, but burst on the NE.

[Yellow Evan]

30/0600 UTC 13.7N 115.2W T4.5/4.5 ANDRES -- East Pacific

Maybe 80 knots?

[Yellow Evan]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 060000 UTC
Lat : 13:37:51 N Lon : 115:19:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 981.1mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.8 4.8

Center Temp : -71.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.8 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

2015053006, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1153W, 80, 978, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 100, 50, 60, 1009, 250, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRES, D,

[talkon]

01E ANDRES 150530 0600 13.7N 115.3W EPAC 80 978

Just short of Cat 2.

[Yellow Evan]

If ADT continues to raise, I could see 85 by advisory time.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Andres is producing a relatively compact area of strong convection,
but the high-level cirrus canopy continues to obscure an eye in
infrared satellite imagery. A 0501 UTC AMSU pass showed that the
bulk of the deep convection is located within the eastern and
southern eyewall--probably the result of 15-20 kt of north-
northwesterly shear. Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have notched
upward just a bit (T5.0/90 kt from TAFB, T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and
T4.5/77 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT), and the initial intensity is
therefore set at 80 kt.

The hurricane is currently located due south of a weakness in the
subtropical ridge, resulting in a northwestward motion of 325/6 kt.
Mid-level ridging is expected to strengthen to the north and
northwest of Andres during the next couple of days, which should
induce a west-northwestward turn by tonight. The track guidance is
in good agreement during the first 48 hours but then diverges
thereafter. The GFS appears to keep Andres as a hurricane for too
long after it reaches colder water, and its solution is therefore
considered to be a northern outlier. Otherwise, the remainder of
the guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the official track
forecast is nearly on top of the previous one.

Global model fields and SHIPS guidance suggest that the shear
affecting Andres will continue for another 18-24 hours. However,
the shear doesn't appear quite strong enough to significantly
disrupt the circulation, and the thermodynamic environment remains
conducive for some further short-term strengthening. After 24
hours, the oceanic heat content falls to zero, so Andres will begin
to upwell colder water and start a steady weakening trend that will
continue through the end of the forecast period. The intensity
guidance is in general agreement of this scenario, and the new NHC
intensity forecast is just an update of the 0300Z forecast, close
to the multi-model consensus (ICON).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 14.0N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 15.4N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 16.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 16.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

We have a cat 2.

EP, 01, 2015053012, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1156W, 85, 973, HU

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 14:06:40 N Lon : 115:43:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.3mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.9 4.9

Center Temp : -68.1C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.7 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

30/1200 UTC 14.0N 115.6W T5.0/5.0 ANDRES -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 14:09:06 N Lon : 115:45:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.3mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.0 5.0

Center Temp : -65.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.7 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

Apologies if I'm posting too much,





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 14:06:42 N Lon : 115:45:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.3mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.2 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.4C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.7 degrees

HERE WE GO!!!!

[cycloneye]

The 15:00 UTC warning goes up to 90kts and that is more than what best track had. (85kts)

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015


Andres has strengthened a little more this morning. The cloud
pattern has become better organized with the eye of the hurricane
intermittently appearing in satellite images. Recent microwave
data show a well-defined eyewall, but most of the banding features
are concentrated on the east side of the circulation, likely due to
northwesterly shear. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, making
Andres a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.

The hurricane still has about another day over warm water and the
SHIPS model lowers the current shear during that time. Therefore,
some additional short-term strengthening is possible even though
none of the models suggest intensification. After that time,
however, Andres is expected to move over progressively cooler
water and into a more stable airmass. These unfavorable conditions
should promote a steady weakening trend. The official forecast is
a little higher than the previous one during the next 36 hours to
account for the higher initial intensity.

Andres is moving northwestward at about 6 kt toward a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is expected to
occur tonight or on Sunday when the ridge builds to the north
of the hurricane, and that general motion should continue for the
remainder of the forecast period. Little change was made to the
previous forecast track, and it lies close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 14.5N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 15.1N 116.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 15.8N 118.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 16.3N 119.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.2N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 19.1N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 19.2N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

W side of the storm sucks and the outflow from the NW is down the toilets. But shear forecast to relax, so there is hope that this will find a way to clear out its eye.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Andres is on the verge of approaching category 3 status today. Only if it continues to intensify and develops more large bursts today before it starts to weaken tomorrow.



Synopsis on Andres and more: http://goo.gl/ao7BjG

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Synopsis on Andres and more: http://goo.gl/ao7BjG

Shear is actually holding it back right now but it could decline tonight.

[CrazyC83]

The eye isn't defined enough IMO to go up that high. I would go only up to 95 kt.

[Yellow Evan]

The eye isn't defined enough IMO to go up that high. I would go only up to 95 kt.

The eye's getting there, my issue is the warm cloud tops.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 01, 2015053018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1161W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 70, 80, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRES, D,
EP, 01, 2015053018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1161W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 30, 40, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRES, D,
EP, 01, 2015053018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1161W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 15, 20, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRES, D,

God danm.

[Yellow Evan]

rricane 01E

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 14:35:42 N Lon : 116:11:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 967.4mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.5 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -36.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.6 degrees