EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[SouthDadeFish]

Ummmmmm..... WOW:



Almost looks like concentric eyewalls present:

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the convective pattern is following the usual diurnal cycle. I'm guessing we will see an explosion of deep convection in the overnight hours and the intensity may really bomb out then.

The fact it has 3 more days of favorable conditions worries me.

We need some of these highs to build back faster after the trough passes and hopefully avoid a hit.

It might have less than 3 days. If the SHIPS guidance is correct, around 48-60 hours.

Also, note that systems near the Big Island often fall apart right before landfall and the storm will be over hostile conditions for4 a while unless the track shifts further south.

Speed is key too.

[Yellow Evan]

Def looks ~65 knts now.

[Kingarabian]

Ummmmmm..... WOW:

http://i.imgur.com/xeERr3a.jpg

Almost looks like concentric eyewalls present:

http://i.imgur.com/GIYCU7h.jpg

Wow!

Have to go with 70kts at least.

I knew it.

[Yellow Evan]

CDO a little ragged, but otherwise looks good

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 09, 201507310000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1040N, 12880W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, MT, VIM, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=3.5 PT=3.5 FTBO DT

TXPZ25 KNES 310021
TCSENP

A. 09E (GUILLERMO)

B. 31/0000Z

C. 10.4N

D. 128.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Alyono]

its still a TS on satellite.

I think that neg Kelvin wave is what is holding this back. In addition, upper tropopause temperatures look quite warm according to SHIPS. It is one of the greatest negative contributors. Otherwise, we'd have a real monster on our hands

[Kingarabian]

[TheStormExpert]

Well it sure can't be weaker than 60kts. Probably maybe even slightly stronger!

[Yellow Evan]

In addition, upper tropopause temperatures look quite warm according to SHIPS. It is one of the greatest negative contributors.

It's like that for every EPAC storm.

Here was Blanca's right before upwelling:

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  BLANCA      EP022015  06/03/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   115   129   139   146   151   148   138   121   103    83    62    39    19
V (KT) LAND      115   129   139   146   151   148   138   121   103    83    62    39    31
V (KT) LGE mod   115   129   135   138   139   140   137   123   102    81    63    48    36
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     4     5     2     5     6    11    11    11    13    18    17    15
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -5    -3    -4    -1    10     9     7     7     9     0     9     6
SHEAR DIR        270   194   170   111    81    98   139   112   135   125   132   163   200
SST (C)         30.3  30.3  30.3  30.3  30.2  30.1  29.5  28.5  27.3  26.0  24.7  23.8  23.3
POT. INT. (KT)   163   163   164   165   165   166   160   149   136   123   109    99    94
200 MB T (C)   -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -51.2 -50.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     8     8     8     9     7     7     6     7     4     4     2
700-500 MB RH     83    81    79    77    75    71    68    64    61    57    56    55    53
MODEL VTX (KT)    29    31    34    34    37    38    40    39    37    32    27    19    13
850 MB ENV VOR    41    54    63    70    71   100    98    91    61    54    47    62    44
200 MB DIV       153   159   131   102   107   109    77    56     3     6   -39   -36   -10
700-850 TADV       0     0     0    -1    -2     0     0     0     2    -3    -4    -2     0
LAND (KM)        644   635   626   601   577   522   434   398   388   291   100     5   -14
LAT (DEG N)     12.5  12.6  12.7  13.0  13.3  14.3  16.0  17.5  18.8  20.3  22.0  23.4  24.6
LONG(DEG W)    104.7 104.8 104.8 105.0 105.1 105.9 107.1 108.2 109.0 109.6 110.0 110.4 111.0
STM SPEED (KT)     0     1     2     3     5     9    10     8     8     8     8     7     7
HEAT CONTENT      99    98    97    95    93    79    36     8     4     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/  1      CX,CY:   0/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  75            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  563  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   3.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -5. -11. -18. -25. -33. -41. -47. -52.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   4.   2.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE           11.  16.  17.  15.   8.   3.   0.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   3.   4.   9.  12.  16.  14.  11.   4.  -3. -13. -21.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   3.   3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     1.   2.   4.   6.   8.   9.   7.   5.   4.   4.   3.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          14.  24.  31.  36.  33.  23.   6. -12. -32. -53. -76. -96.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA     06/03/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  40.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  2.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   3.4 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  49.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   3.9 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  96.4 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 130.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  75.2 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    95% is   7.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    95% is  11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    95% is  16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    95% is  23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

What about 55kts?

EP, 09, 2015073100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1285W, 55, 994, TS

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Well it sure can't be weaker than 60kts. Probably maybe even slightly stronger!

I say it has to be 65kts.

That MW pass posted earlier showed a concentric eyewall and if you look at IR, a round deep super cold area of convection is showing up next to the eye (normally called a hot tower); signs of a hurricane about to intensify.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

TAFB at T3.5

201507310000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1040N, 12850W, , 2, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, HC, VI, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, CIMSS ADT 3.9 TO 4.0

[Yellow Evan]

What about 55kts?

EP, 09, 2015073100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1285W, 55, 994, TS

This is why you don't cling to Dvorak.

Probs 60-65 knts. Not higher since the CDO is ragged.

[Kingarabian]

What about 55kts?

EP, 09, 2015073100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1285W, 55, 994, TS

If they want to be conservative, they'll go with 60kts.

They did this in the previous update, saying 45kts then going with 50kts.

Also did this yesterday when the atcf showed invest but then they upgraded it to Depression.

[Kingarabian]

What about 55kts?

EP, 09, 2015073100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1285W, 55, 994, TS

This is why you don't cling to Dvorak.

Probs 60-65 knts. Not higher since the CDO is ragged.

I think the CDO looks fine.

For me, the only time I monitor the CDO is when a tropical storm is fresh and does not have a core.

We've had a warm spot, to an eye feature, to a weak pinhole eye (with a microwave pass to support).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I think they'll go with 60. Probs 65 now, but the CDO is becoming more organized. Over the next 12 hours, we should expect the CDO to organize further, and the eye to clear out at around 75-90 knots and then ADT will jump, and then the fun beings.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Must be some heavy pondering by the NHC deciding to up to a hurricane or keep it a TS as the update is not 30 minutes early.

Edit: Upped to 60kts remains a TS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
800 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015


Microwave and conventional satellite imagery indicate that
Guillermo is continuing to become better organized. The microwave
imagery shows a developing eye, which has occasionally appeared in
visible and infrared imagery. Satellite intensity estimates are
55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest intensity estimate from
the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique is 65 kt. Based on these, the
initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.

Guillermo has turned to the right during the past several hours
with the initial motion now 305/12. Other than that, there is
little change in the forecast philosophy. The subtropical ridge
north of the storm is forecast to strengthen slightly, causing
Guillermo to accelerate west-northwestward during the next 36
hours. After that time, a mid- to upper-level low well west of
California is expected to produce a break in the ridge, which should
cause the cyclone to slow down and turn more northward by day 5.
The forecast track from 0 to 72 hours has been adjusted northward
based on the initial position and motion. After 72 hours, the
forecast guidance has again shifted to the left or west, and the
forecast track has also been moved in that direction. However,
this part of the forecast lies to the north of the various
consensus models.

The developing eye seen in microwave imagery shows that the
structure of Guillermo is conducive for additional rapid
intensification. Also, the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS
model shows a 50 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity
during the next 24 hours. Based on this, the intensities during the
first 48 hours of the forecast have been increased over those of the
previous advisory, and this part of the forecast lies near the upper
edge of the intensity guidance. After 48 hours, the cyclone will
move over decreasing sea surface temperatures and possibly encounter
westerly vertical wind shear. This combination is expected to
cause the cyclone to weaken below hurricane strength by 120 hours.
It should be noted that the early part of the intensity forecast is
of low confidence due to the uncertainties associated with rapid
intensification, and the later part is of low confidence due to
uncertainties in how much shear Guillermo will encounter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 10.8N 129.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 11.4N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 12.3N 134.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 13.1N 137.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 13.9N 139.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 18.0N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven