WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Goni's life might get another boost according to the models...12Z EURO bottoms this out at 913 mb east of Taiwan of this northerly tracking monster. Okinawa might get spared but bad news for Miyako and Yaeyama, looks like a direct hit for them...

Looks like a problem for the Korea's down the road...

[euro6208]

Looks like a big black hole...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INTENSE EYEWALL
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A ROUND 37-NM EYE. A 191812Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE
REFLECTS THIS RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. BASED
ON THE EYE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION WITHIN
ABOUT 30NM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
WEAK CONVERGENT FLOW AND MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0
(115 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW, EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR TO THE
NORTH. THE STR IS RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONES AS WELL AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET
PERSISTING OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
BASED ON A 191311Z ASCAT IMAGE.
B. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS
THE STR STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER
TAU 24 THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR OVER CHINA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND RECEDE WESTWARD, THEREFORE, TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FURTHER WITH POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION
DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS IN DEPICTING A SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PHASE OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR
IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING A POLEWARD
ORIENTED TRACK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHWARD. AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT
THIS NORTHWARD TRACK. TY 16W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU
24 DUE TO HIGH SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 16W WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

GFS runs still show an intense monster deepening as it slowly recurves but has backed off some. From 891 mb 1818Z to just 904 mb 1912Z. A devastating hit for Miyako, Yaeyama, and Okinawa.

[Weather Watcher]

How come Goni is a typhoon and it is a cat 4 whereas Atsani is a super typhoon at cat 4?
According to:http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/

[Yellow Evan]

How come Goni is a typhoon and it is a cat 4 whereas Atsani is a super typhoon at cat 4?
According to:http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/

Super typhoon is a term used by the JTWC for storms greater than 130 knots. Cat 4 runs from 115-135 knts.

JTWC isn't doing a very good job with the Dvorak Technique. There's of fairly similar intensity IMO.

[1900hurricane]

I hate to say it because people jump the gun on it all the time, but Goni might be becoming annular.

Probably not. The latest MW data still indicates some asymmetry in the system brought on by northerly shear.

Yep, definitely not, and it was easy to tell pretty much immediately after this post was made. Fail on my part.

[Weather Watcher]

Thank you for answering my question!

[euro6208]

Slowed down big time, looks like the turn is about to start...

[euro6208]

Typhoon Hunter James Reynolds headed to Okinawa to intercept Goni...

[1900hurricane]

Needs to work on the northern eyewall a bit if it is to be classified as a supertyphoon.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 44-NM
ROUND EYE, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A
192326Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A NEAR COMPLETE EYEWALL WITH A BREAK
IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT AND TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH WEAK
CONVERGENT FLOW AND MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW, EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR TO THE
NORTH. THE STR IS RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONES AS WELL AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET
PERSISTING OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS
THE STR STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER
TAU 24 THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR OVER CHINA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND RECEDE WESTWARD, THEREFORE, TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FURTHER WITH POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION
DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS IN DEPICTING A SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PHASE OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR
IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING A POLEWARD
ORIENTED TRACK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHWARD. AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT
THIS NORTHWARD TRACK. TY 16W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU
24 DUE TO HIGH SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 16W WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

HWRF 12Z brings this over Taiwan...

[euro6208]

Look how high the waves will be in the whole region. Large area of 10 feet with Goni at 60 feet and Atsani at 50 feet!

[dexterlabio]

^so far no reports yet from the local news regarding this storm. The local met agency is saying the northern part of Luzon will experience the worst from Goni tomorrow. Here in the south we are currently having blustery weather, maybe due to the enhanced monsoon.

[euro6208]

EURO has Goni reaching it's peak intensity of 911 mb east of Batanes as it makes it turn to the north. Direct hit for Yaeyama with Miyako and Okinawa in the worst side of this monster...

[euro6208]

Too close for comfort for Luzon and the Batanes group of Islands...

WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
40-NM ROUND EYE, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION.
A 200711Z GPM IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED EYEWALL WITH
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE NORTHERLY VWS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY 16W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK, NARROW, EAST-WEST
ORIENTED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOWING AS THE STR STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. TRACK
MOTION THROUGH TAU 48 IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FURTHER WITH POSSIBLE
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
TAU 48, THE STR IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING
A POLEWARD ORIENTED TRACK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY
TRACK NORTHWARD. TY 16W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE
TO HIGH SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASED UPPER- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO DECAY BY TAU 36 THROUGH TAU
72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE POLEWARD
EXTENT OF THE TRACK, WITH SOME MODELS TRACKING UP THE RYUKU ISLAND
AND OTHER MORE TRACKING INTO SOUTH KOREA. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Bringing heavy rains to the Philippines...

[euro6208]

Hate to be in the Batanes Islands north of Luzon with the latest GFS taking this very very close to the island group...




As a Cat 5...

It then smashes the whole of Japan from the southern ryukyu islands to the mainland...

[1900hurricane]

Not great structure for strengthening.