WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Should we have a separate models threat for this storm? I know it is not normal, but this is a rare US threat in the Pacific.
Just my thoughts but it might be more convenient for those who may join us in the discussions if we keep one clean Topic for potential Kilo. Typically the Central Pacific does not attract that much attention. This may be one of those exceptions since the Hawaiian Island Chain may see an impact.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Should we have a separate models threat for this storm? I know it is not normal, but this is a rare US threat in the Pacific.
It's a lot more convenient just to have just 1 thread. I see no need, but it's just me.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: THREE-C - Tropical Depression
![Image](http://i.imgur.com/EEyhBbB.gif)
Pulsating, but has colder cloud tops than most TD's.
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- Kingarabian
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Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:
Alyono is right. Center fix really looks off by at least 2 degrees.
Yea. Likely around 149W and a little further north than I expected.
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Re: CPAC: THREE-C - Tropical Depression
Once this goes to TS we can start the other threads as we normally do.
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Re: CPAC: THREE-C - Tropical Depression
vbhoutex wrote:Once this goes to TS we can start the other threads as we normally do.
Normally, in this basin, we have two threads, one for Recon and one for general discussion, so I'm not sure what you mean.
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Re: CPAC: THREE-C - Tropical Depression
Also worth noting out that this system or its extratropical remnants of it may last a long time.
![Image](http://i.imgur.com/Oe5cdAi.png)
![Image](http://i.imgur.com/JEtpiKI.png)
![Image](http://i.imgur.com/Oe5cdAi.png)
![Image](http://i.imgur.com/JEtpiKI.png)
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incredible
TXPN41 PHFO 202354
TCSNP1
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2355 UTC THU AUG 20 2015
A. Tropical depression Three-C.
B. 20/2330Z.
C. 10.5°N.
D. 150.7°W.
E. Goes-15.
F. T2.5/2.5/d1.5/24 hrs.
G. Vis/ir/eir.
H. Remarks: Shear pattern with deep convection < 45 nm from center yields a DT of 2.5. PT is 2.5 as is met. FT based on DT.
I. Addl positions none.
$$
Burke.
TXPN41 PHFO 202354
TCSNP1
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2355 UTC THU AUG 20 2015
A. Tropical depression Three-C.
B. 20/2330Z.
C. 10.5°N.
D. 150.7°W.
E. Goes-15.
F. T2.5/2.5/d1.5/24 hrs.
G. Vis/ir/eir.
H. Remarks: Shear pattern with deep convection < 45 nm from center yields a DT of 2.5. PT is 2.5 as is met. FT based on DT.
I. Addl positions none.
$$
Burke.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTKnqTo3Nvk
- By the one and only, Levi Cowan. His take on 93C.
Really good points. A lot of uncertainty.
- By the one and only, Levi Cowan. His take on 93C.
Really good points. A lot of uncertainty.
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I'd say a 2.0. If the center is back toward 149, then maybe even a 1.5
Checked a windsat from 15Z, center is clearly east of CPHC position. Also, it could be closer to 12N
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/wind ... 8_noaa.png
Checked a windsat from 15Z, center is clearly east of CPHC position. Also, it could be closer to 12N
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/wind ... 8_noaa.png
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
Kingarabian wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTKnqTo3Nvk
- By the one and only, Levi Cowan. His take on 93C.
Really good points. A lot of uncertainty.
Always liked Levi.
My take is that there is good agreement that this will pass close to Hawaii as a strong hurricane, but it's uncertain on how close this comes. We still don't have a fully consolidated center yet. Right now, I'd follow the mutli-model consensus TVCE.
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:21/0000 UTC 11.7N 148.0W T1.5/2.0 03C -- Central Pacific
Likely still a TD. And look at the center fix.
Big difference compared to the CPHC's 11Am fix:
Location: 11.0N 150.2W
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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:21/0000 UTC 11.7N 148.0W T1.5/2.0 03C -- Central Pacific
Likely still a TD. And look at the center fix.
Big difference compared to the CPHC's 11Am fix:
Location: 11.0N 150.2W
And their Dvorak fix of 10.5N 150.7W. Time for a TC position update IMO.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:21/0000 UTC 11.7N 148.0W T1.5/2.0 03C -- Central Pacific
Likely still a TD. And look at the center fix.
Big difference compared to the CPHC's 11Am fix:
Location: 11.0N 150.2W
And their Dvorak fix of 10.5N 150.7W. Time for a TC position update IMO.
In the next couple of advisories we could be seeing multiple TC position updates. This thing is still unorganized and subject to relocations.
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Re: CPAC: THREE-C - Tropical Depression
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THREE CP032015 08/21/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 48 62 73 80 84 87 88 91 88
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 48 62 73 80 84 87 88 91 88
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 45 56 70 82 86 86 86 86 85
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 21 15 13 12 10 6 2 5 6 5 8 13 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 3 4 4 2 3
SHEAR DIR 72 80 73 66 58 20 15 285 328 299 261 255 261
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 159 158 152 148 146 146 146 145 143 141
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 65 65 64 66 70 73 75 74 74 70
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 21 22 24 26 27 28 31 31
850 MB ENV VOR 104 106 98 91 86 75 63 41 17 20 25 35 54
200 MB DIV 81 81 59 47 30 23 51 64 87 92 107 98 73
700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -4 -2 -5 1 8 10 13 18 16 10
LAND (KM) 1037 919 812 748 716 726 796 742 647 540 417 326 274
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.6 14.8 16.1 17.3 18.4 19.4 20.1 20.5
LONG(DEG W) 150.8 152.1 153.4 154.9 156.4 159.6 161.9 163.2 163.5 163.3 162.7 162.2 161.9
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 15 10 7 6 5 5 3 2
HEAT CONTENT 27 27 30 30 35 46 41 61 61 57 57 59 53
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 19. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 32. 43. 50. 54. 57. 58. 61. 58.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 THREE 08/21/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
Sitll 30 knots.
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