ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Siker]

Any thoughts on this being an East Coast / Bermuda threat this far out?

far too soon to say

That's what I figured, thanks.

[floridasun78]

so we may have other system to watch models next few days

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has this going south of Cuba and into th Yucatan Channel towards the Florida west coast so its possible this may go south of the big islands

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[Siker]

The 00z HWRF has this really taking off once it's north of the Greater Antilles. 967mb / ~100kts at 126 hours, moving WNW north of the Dominican Republic.

From WxBell:

[Hammy]

Euro only showing a minimal tropical storm at day 10 where previously it was showing a major.

[Blown Away]

06Z

[TheStormExpert]

No reason at the moment to believe that 98L shouldn't be able to at least become a minimal hurricane down the road in the West Atlantic as it recurves. Only inhibiting factor would be shear.

[stormlover2013]

not a sure thing for a re curve my friend

[OuterBanker]

Interestig. Not much change in the 06z hwrf. Still has Erika as a 120 kts peak at around 22.5n 70w. Easy to see the hwrf as a scary outlier. But, it has been right lately.

[NDG]

I think the HWRF is the intensity model to follow, it was the one that has been the most right with Danny, it was the only tropical dynamical model that it showed to become a Cat 3 and the only one that showed that is going to die out slowly as it entered the Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

12z...

[gatorcane]

You guys keep forgetting about the UKMET which did pretty well with Danny also when it was basically the only model that showed development. Look how strong it makes this one!

[wxsouth]

Interestig. Not much change in the 06z hwrf. Still has Erika as a 120 kts peak at around 22.5n 70w. Easy to see the hwrf as a scary outlier. But, it has been right lately.

HWRF surface winds peak at about 85kt, not 120kt. You may be looking at 850mb winds.

[stormlover2013]

UKMET isn't that good, EURO and GFS did prettygood with danny

[gatorcane]

HWRF-P 126 hour position heading WNW towards SE Bahamas. 500MB flow from the model shows good ridging to the north. You can see the ridge axis is positioned around Central Florida and extends ENE just south of Bermuda:

[OuterBanker]

Thanks wksouth. You're right, that was the 850 level. Btw, could you post conversions. I.E. is 1000 ground level, 900 30 meters, etc.

[Hammy]

UKMET isn't that good, EURO and GFS did prettygood with danny

Both of those models did quite poorly with intensity, and the GFS didn't even show it doing anything at all until a day after it already developed.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Here fishy fishy fishy....Anyone know what goes great with fried fish?

[stormlover2013]

models don't do well with intensity, but I thought euro did very well with track and dissipating it early on.

[hohnywx]

UKMET isn't that good, EURO and GFS did prettygood with danny

The GFS did the worst out of any model with the storm, statistically speaking.