EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 out of this by late tonight.

[zeehag]

hi kids.. until this nastiness which is so pretty to the eye comes down on us, i am still a girl, albeit old.
yes i am prepared, but we didnt want a c3 or 4 we wanted something more gentlemanly here.
ok so this storm is giving me neuroses and scaredness. yes i know we gonna die. this is a most impressive storm and we do not wish to see its center. i will get pix of it for ye. if i live.
i spoze i best let you all know if i die in this mess... so if you dont hear from me at end of storm, send search parties. cat will need fed.
anyone want some coconuts??? might just have a bunch in my boat if they dont kill me....

oh, hay!!
when was last major that hit this area, exactly??? jova was only a 2 on landfall... these folks are spoiled by weather here...

oh, btw--please dont wish a 5 on us. we already nervous enough. town wont make it thru a 5 in this bay.
pray if you have em... i dont and i am....

[Kingarabian]

hi kids.. until this nastiness which is so pretty to the eye comes down on us, i am still a girl, albeit old.
yes i am prepared, but we didnt want a c3 or 4 we wanted something more gentlemanly here.
ok so this storm is giving me neuroses and scaredness. yes i know we gonna die. this is a most impressive storm and we do not wish to see its center. i will get pix of it for ye. if i live.
i spoze i best let you all know if i die in this mess... so if you dont hear from me at end of storm, send search parties. cat will need fed.
anyone want some coconuts??? might just have a bunch in my boat if they dont kill me....

oh, hay!!
when was last major that hit this area, exactly??? jova was only a 2 on landfall... these folks are spoiled by weather here...

Yo, relax. Just evacuate ASAP, Stop waiting.

[cycloneye]

hi kids.. until this nastiness which is so pretty to the eye comes down on us, i am still a girl, albeit old.
yes i am prepared, but we didnt want a c3 or 4 we wanted something more gentlemanly here.
ok so this storm is giving me neuroses and scaredness. yes i know we gonna die. this is a most impressive storm and we do not wish to see its center. i will get pix of it for ye. if i live.
i spoze i best let you all know if i die in this mess... so if you dont hear from me at end of storm, send search parties. cat will need fed.
anyone want some coconuts??? might just have a bunch in my boat if they dont kill me....

oh, hay!!
when was last major that hit this area, exactly??? jova was only a 2 on landfall... these folks are spoiled by weather here...

Stay safe and have faith that you are going to go thru this fine.

[zeehag]

no where to take boat.. it is here in marina on isla navidad. if i go anywhere it will be to take over the hotel lobby in the posh hotel which overlooks this marina. with my cat . like a refugee.

[Kingarabian]

no where to take boat.. it is here in marina on isla navidad. if i go anywhere it will be to take over the hotel lobby in the posh hotel which overlooks this marina. with my cat . like a refugee.

Yeah just leave the boat right now, there's not much you can do. Hopefully your insurance will cover it. Just make sure you and your cat go to that hotel.

[Kingarabian]

Waiting on a dropsonde but pressure is at 952mb. That's a 6mb drop in less than an hour.

[Alyono]

no where to take boat.. it is here in marina on isla navidad. if i go anywhere it will be to take over the hotel lobby in the posh hotel which overlooks this marina. with my cat . like a refugee.

why in the world would you risk your life for a boat? GET OUT NOW IF ORDERED TO BE EMERGENCY OFFICIALS

[cycloneye]

In a very short period of time Patricia is doing records.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 3m3 minutes ago
#Olaf has generated more ACE (13) since Tuesday AM than the entire Atlantic did in September (11).

[brunota2003]

Interesting that it seems the wind reduction from flight level to surface is pretty much 100%...impressive, how often does it occur in hurricanes that flight level winds would equal the surface winds?

[Kingarabian]

VDM confirms 954mb. That's still a really steady millibar drop since the last pass.

[supercane4867]

Interesting that it seems the wind reduction from flight level to surface is pretty much 100%...impressive, how often does it occur in hurricanes that flight level winds would equal the surface winds?

Studies suggest in some intense hurricane with small eyes, the dynamics may generate surface winds as strong or stronger than those found at flight level.
So it's probably not that uncommon, just no enough observations to conclude anything.

[brunota2003]

VDM confirms 954mb. That's still a really steady millibar drop since the last pass.

Also note that the eye wall is completely closed and the eye has shrunk from 12 miles to 10 miles in diameter!

[Kingarabian]

VDM confirms 954mb. That's still a really steady millibar drop since the last pass.

Also note that the eye wall is completely closed and the eye has shrunk from 12 miles to 10 miles in diameter!

Unless there is some unseen hindrance in its path, this thing is about to blow.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 15:04:28 N Lon : 104:10:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 962.4mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 6.0 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.1C Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[brunota2003]

Also, the eye is warming on IR and becoming a lot more distinct on visible.

Since recon arrived before the eye completely cleared out, this is interesting data to show that past RIing systems in the EPac likely hit Cat 4 long before the raw T#s were able to catch up to the system.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the data and pressure drop, assuming the strongest winds were not sampled this pass, I'd go up to 120 or even 125 kt.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Also, the eye is warming on IR and becoming a lot more distinct on visible.

Since recon arrived before the eye completely cleared out, this is interesting data to show that past RIing systems in the EPac likely hit Cat 4 long before the raw T#s were able to catch up to the system.

Yep. Even though Recon from Carlotta 00 and Juliette 01 suggested otherwise.

[supercane4867]

:uarrow: Also, the eye is warming on IR and becoming a lot more distinct on visible.

Since recon arrived before the eye completely cleared out, this is interesting data to show that past RIing systems in the EPac likely hit Cat 4 long before the raw T#s were able to catch up to the system.

Yep. Even though Recon from Carlotta 00 and Juliette 01 suggested otherwise.

Without actual recon data available at peak intensity any assumptions are doubtful IMO

Carlotta could be a Cat 5 after recon left, who knows

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: Also, the eye is warming on IR and becoming a lot more distinct on visible.

Since recon arrived before the eye completely cleared out, this is interesting data to show that past RIing systems in the EPac likely hit Cat 4 long before the raw T#s were able to catch up to the system.

Yep. Even though Recon from Carlotta 00 and Juliette 01 suggested otherwise.

Without actual recon data available at peak intensity any assumptions are doubtful IMO

Carlotta could be a Cat 5 after recon left, who knows

Only a handful of EPAC storms had peak intensity Recon: Jimena 2009 (although I think it peaked just after Recon left at 140 kt), Kenna 2002, Lane 2006 are three that I know of.