ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NotoSans]

Center dropsonde reported SLP of 942 mb w/ 1 kt wind.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Last image from me:



8am position on this image:

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 011212
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 25 20151001
120300 2347N 07258W 6961 03053 9900 +118 +078 135057 058 057 002 00
120330 2349N 07257W 6965 03053 9914 +109 +081 135060 062 051 003 00
120400 2350N 07255W 6965 03054 9927 +098 +089 138059 062 048 002 00
120430 2351N 07254W 6968 03052 9934 +094 +081 136057 058 044 000 00
120500 2352N 07253W 6963 03059 9936 +095 +088 136057 057 043 000 00
120530 2354N 07251W 6967 03058 9939 +094 +091 134056 056 041 002 00
120600 2355N 07250W 6966 03063 9940 +095 +091 132056 057 042 000 00
120630 2356N 07249W 6959 03075 9935 +105 +077 129056 057 043 001 00
120700 2357N 07247W 6966 03071 9945 +102 +074 127053 056 045 001 00
120730 2359N 07246W 6966 03072 9945 +103 +072 127050 052 044 000 00
120800 2400N 07245W 6959 03081 9951 +100 +074 129048 050 044 001 00
120830 2401N 07244W 6966 03076 9953 +098 +078 132046 048 044 001 00
120900 2402N 07242W 6967 03076 9951 +101 +073 135047 048 045 001 00
120930 2404N 07241W 6963 03080 9944 +109 +065 136050 050 044 001 00
121000 2405N 07239W 6961 03085 9945 +109 +068 135047 050 043 000 00
121030 2406N 07238W 6967 03079 9950 +106 +071 137048 049 041 001 00
121100 2407N 07237W 6961 03086 9954 +101 +076 139048 049 040 000 00
121130 2409N 07235W 6962 03085 9956 +100 +080 140047 047 039 000 00
121200 2410N 07234W 6966 03082 9961 +099 +081 140049 050 039 000 00
121230 2411N 07233W 6967 03081 9965 +096 +083 140050 051 037 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 011216
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 01/11:46:50Z
B. 23 deg 09 min N
073 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2603 m
D. 117 kt
E. 250 deg 14 nm
F. 329 deg 112 kt
G. 250 deg 14 nm
H. 942 mb
I. 12 C / 3056 m
J. 19 C / 3052 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN W-NW
M. C36
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF301 0711A JOAQUIN OB 07
MAX FL WIND 112 KT 250 / 14 NM 11:42:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 335 / 1 KT
;

[AutoPenalti]

Interesting that the SW quadrant is stronger than the NE quadrant per the recon's reports.

It's normal since its been moving SW during its life.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011222
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 26 20151001
121300 2413N 07231W 6963 03088 9962 +098 +080 140051 052 037 000 03
121330 2414N 07230W 6961 03092 9963 +100 +076 141051 052 037 000 00
121400 2415N 07229W 6964 03090 9962 +102 +074 143053 054 037 000 03
121430 2417N 07227W 6963 03093 9962 +104 +071 145053 054 038 000 00
121500 2418N 07226W 6963 03092 9956 +111 +061 145052 054 038 000 00
121530 2419N 07224W 6969 03088 9964 +106 +070 144048 050 038 000 00
121600 2420N 07223W 6961 03099 9965 +108 +061 144046 047 037 000 00
121630 2422N 07222W 6963 03097 9970 +103 +067 145047 047 038 000 00
121700 2423N 07220W 6963 03099 9966 +109 +059 143046 047 038 000 00
121730 2424N 07219W 6964 03099 9977 +102 +063 143045 046 037 000 00
121800 2426N 07217W 6961 03104 9981 +100 +061 142045 045 037 000 03
121830 2428N 07218W 6965 03102 9978 +102 +060 138042 045 /// /// 03
121900 2428N 07220W 6969 03097 9978 +101 +060 136040 041 /// /// 03
121930 2427N 07222W 6963 03101 9976 +101 +058 136041 042 037 000 00
122000 2427N 07224W 6965 03098 9975 +102 +058 133042 043 038 000 03
122030 2427N 07227W 6953 03110 9970 +103 +059 133042 043 039 001 00
122100 2427N 07229W 6961 03098 9967 +103 +068 133044 044 040 000 00
122130 2427N 07232W 6963 03094 9961 +109 +063 129044 044 039 000 00
122200 2427N 07234W 6960 03098 9961 +108 +062 128046 046 040 001 00
122230 2427N 07237W 6959 03097 9965 +104 +068 129045 046 041 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011142
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 22 20151001
113300 2244N 07424W 6965 03016 9928 +083 +083 310071 073 046 006 00
113330 2245N 07423W 6966 03013 9919 +091 //// 316069 072 049 006 01
113400 2246N 07421W 6943 03038 9905 +100 +100 314072 078 049 011 03
113430 2247N 07419W 6961 03005 //// +073 //// 314073 076 051 007 05
113500 2248N 07418W 6976 02983 //// +086 //// 317072 074 /// /// 05
113530 2249N 07416W 6959 02999 9859 +094 +093 321076 078 /// /// 05
113600 2250N 07415W 6968 02981 9862 +094 //// 321078 080 078 010 01
113630 2251N 07413W 6960 02982 9869 +094 +094 320082 083 060 009 00
113700 2252N 07412W 6964 02968 9865 +092 +092 320084 085 063 013 00
113730 2253N 07411W 6965 02953 9852 +090 +090 318089 092 064 021 00
113800 2254N 07409W 6947 02958 9831 +095 +095 317092 096 059 036 00
113830 2255N 07408W 6967 02919 9801 +106 +106 324090 096 071 054 00
113900 2256N 07406W 6971 02903 9781 +113 +113 326093 096 073 034 03
113930 2257N 07405W 6967 02893 9767 +113 +113 321095 097 080 017 00
114000 2258N 07403W 6957 02886 9729 +113 +113 322101 101 083 012 00
114030 2259N 07402W 6963 02859 9719 +113 +113 320100 102 086 014 00
114100 2300N 07401W 6971 02828 9693 +115 +115 320104 107 087 023 00
114130 2301N 07359W 6961 02816 9660 +119 +119 322107 108 091 040 03
114200 2302N 07358W 6962 02786 9627 +123 +123 325111 112 129 025 03
114230 2303N 07356W 6964 02755 9561 +135 +135 330108 112 117 019 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 011152
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 23 20151001
114300 2304N 07355W 6976 02713 9522 +142 //// 330098 103 099 011 01
114330 2305N 07354W 6964 02704 9499 +142 //// 332082 098 096 006 05
114400 2306N 07352W 6958 02693 9461 +147 //// 332070 075 088 003 05
114430 2307N 07351W 6971 02659 9435 +161 +144 335052 063 071 000 03
114500 2308N 07349W 6962 02659 9411 +174 +125 343035 045 046 001 00
114530 2308N 07348W 6963 02650 9392 +188 +118 000018 031 034 001 03
114600 2309N 07346W 6967 02644 9389 +192 +111 033012 014 024 001 03
114630 2309N 07344W 6947 02672 9399 +186 +097 056007 012 017 000 00
114700 2308N 07342W 6971 02645 9402 +188 +086 114007 008 017 000 00
114730 2308N 07340W 6967 02653 9406 +184 +088 136012 013 013 000 03
114800 2308N 07339W 6960 02665 9409 +186 +086 138016 020 016 000 00
114830 2310N 07337W 6966 02664 9409 +194 +086 140023 027 023 000 03
114900 2311N 07336W 6966 02671 9414 +192 +110 139034 040 029 000 00
114930 2312N 07335W 6958 02688 9421 +194 +117 145055 066 041 003 03
115000 2314N 07333W 6964 02693 9454 +175 +117 147072 076 071 016 00
115030 2315N 07332W 6968 02706 9460 +187 +125 143091 097 098 016 00
115100 2316N 07331W 6984 02718 9484 +193 +108 142101 106 102 010 03
115130 2317N 07329W 6957 02786 9584 +145 +142 143099 104 104 035 00
115200 2319N 07328W 6970 02810 9643 +139 +139 149098 102 090 024 00
115230 2320N 07327W 6967 02840 9690 +128 +128 147097 102 085 015 00
$$

Key sets from earlier. 112 kt FL, 117 kt SFMR (129 flagged).

[NDG]

Interesting that the SW quadrant is stronger than the NE quadrant per the recon's reports.

It's normal since its been moving SW during its life.

True.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the latest SFMR readings, I would bump the intensity up to 110 kt. It was likely inflated at 117 slightly by rain, but not too greatly.

[NotoSans]

AL, 11, 2015100112, , BEST, 0, 231N, 737W, 110, 942, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 30, 1006, 300, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOAQUIN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,

12Z Best Track up to 110 kt.

[AutoPenalti]

Jesus, I woke up to see a monster cat 3 right near my door step.

[deltadog03]

Btw, look at the water vapor. Very telling imho. See how the "dry" air is pushing SW?? I don't think it's done moving SE or WSW yet.

[abajan]

Jesus, I woke up to see a monster cat 3 right near my door step.

And you are where?

[AutoPenalti]

Ok I have some questions before I start to fuse myself into believe this is going out to sea.

1) what if the models were wrong the whole entire time? what adjustments could they have done that we just didn't see?

2) a cat 3 inching ever so closely to the coast and not even a watch has been issued. Why is that?

3) if Joaquin doesn't hit the sweet spot weakness, what will happen now?

[tgenius]

Btw, look at the water vapor. Very telling imho. See how the "dry" air is pushing SW?? I don't think it's done moving SE or WSW yet.

but deltadog, how much longer do you forsee it actually moving WSW? I know he will eventually lift out, but man its scary looking when you look at how relatively close to the FL coast he is.

[AutoPenalti]

Jesus, I woke up to see a monster cat 3 right near my door step.

And you are where?

Pompano Beach.

Well, not necessarily near my door step but it's really really close, and no one around the area seem to care right now.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, if models are still divided tonight, I would go ahead and issue a Hurricane Watch at least for the NC coast. Make clear it is for playing it safe and might miss, yet a very dangerous storm *may* still hit.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011232
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 27 20151001
122300 2427N 07239W 6961 03094 9964 +102 +071 128046 047 038 000 00
122330 2427N 07242W 6959 03093 9958 +104 +073 126045 045 038 001 00
122400 2427N 07244W 6962 03090 9959 +103 +073 124045 045 039 000 00
122430 2427N 07247W 6961 03090 9957 +104 +072 125047 048 040 001 00
122500 2427N 07250W 6957 03092 9955 +104 +072 122046 047 041 000 00
122530 2427N 07252W 6963 03085 9952 +105 +063 117047 048 040 000 03
122600 2427N 07255W 6958 03088 9957 +099 +065 119045 047 041 000 00
122630 2427N 07257W 6961 03082 9957 +098 +073 118046 047 041 000 03
122700 2427N 07300W 6958 03087 9956 +098 +073 117046 047 041 000 00
122730 2427N 07303W 6957 03087 9952 +100 +069 116047 048 041 000 00
122800 2427N 07305W 6958 03085 9950 +100 +068 114047 048 041 001 00
122830 2427N 07308W 6958 03084 9947 +102 +075 114046 047 041 000 00
122900 2427N 07311W 6961 03079 9943 +105 +076 116046 048 040 000 00
122930 2427N 07313W 6958 03080 9938 +107 +075 115047 048 041 000 00
123000 2427N 07316W 6957 03081 9935 +108 +077 112045 047 040 001 00
123030 2427N 07319W 6957 03080 9935 +108 +077 110047 048 042 000 00
123100 2426N 07322W 6958 03077 9939 +104 +078 110050 050 043 001 03
123130 2426N 07324W 6963 03070 9931 +109 +073 109050 050 043 000 00
123200 2426N 07327W 6957 03077 9932 +106 +075 103049 050 043 000 00
123230 2426N 07330W 6959 03075 9933 +108 +065 098049 050 042 000 00
$$
;

[caneman]

Seems to me there will be further adjustments this dropped much,further south than anticipated. Further, since it is much deeper than anticipated won't it be steered at a different level? Someone posted this yesterday. Can a met chime in?

[NotoSans]

Eye clearing out. Perhaps Joaquin is in another RI trend.