ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Seems to me there will be further adjustments this dropped much,further south than anticipated. Further, since it is much deeper than anticipated won't it be steered at a different level? Someone posted this yesterday. Can a met chime in?

Someone mentioned that lower than a 940 mb can it change the steering currents but never saw in what way.

[abajan]

In hindsight, the comments on the first page of the models thread about the Euro are kind of amusing.

[terstorm1012]

Ok I have some questions before I start to fuse myself into believe this is going out to sea.

1) what if the models were wrong the whole entire time? what adjustments could they have done that we just didn't see?

2) a cat 3 inching ever so closely to the coast and not even a watch has been issued. Why is that?

3) if Joaquin doesn't hit the sweet spot weakness, what will happen now?

I can't answer all your questions but 2. Watches will likely go up sometime today. I can't say where because I don't know. A Hurricane Watch is issued when hurricane conditions can be expected within 48 hours. Since any forecasted impacts are a bit beyond that, it doesn't make sense to issue a watch. Watches and warnings cost money and people tend to get irate (and then ignore the next one) when watches and warnings are issued and nothing happens. This behavior seems to be universal across the world and NOAA has been conducting research on it for some time now.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011242
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 28 20151001
123300 2426N 07332W 6958 03075 9934 +106 +074 098046 048 043 000 00
123330 2426N 07335W 6962 03070 9934 +108 +072 098047 048 042 000 00
123400 2426N 07338W 6960 03074 9933 +108 +073 094048 048 042 000 00
123430 2426N 07341W 6959 03074 9935 +105 +075 091049 050 042 000 03
123500 2426N 07343W 6961 03073 9931 +109 +073 091050 051 042 000 03
123530 2426N 07346W 6962 03071 9928 +112 +070 088050 050 041 000 00
123600 2426N 07349W 6958 03075 9934 +106 +071 087050 051 041 000 03
123630 2426N 07351W 6961 03073 9934 +105 +073 086052 052 041 000 03
123700 2426N 07354W 6955 03077 9933 +106 +074 086052 052 041 000 00
123730 2426N 07357W 6962 03069 9933 +105 +075 086052 053 042 000 00
123800 2426N 07359W 6961 03070 9938 +101 +076 085054 055 042 000 00
123830 2426N 07402W 6959 03074 9936 +105 +072 086056 056 039 000 00
123900 2426N 07405W 6959 03074 9932 +107 +080 084054 056 039 000 00
123930 2426N 07408W 6959 03075 9938 +103 +081 081054 054 039 000 03
124000 2426N 07410W 6959 03075 9931 +110 +074 081052 054 039 000 03
124030 2425N 07413W 6962 03073 9930 +111 +072 081052 052 039 000 00
124100 2425N 07416W 6959 03077 9925 +114 +078 074052 053 039 000 03
124130 2425N 07419W 6956 03081 9923 +115 +079 067050 053 039 000 00
124200 2425N 07421W 6962 03075 9929 +113 +080 068049 049 038 000 03
124230 2425N 07424W 6959 03081 9937 +107 +082 067047 049 037 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011252
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 29 20151001
124300 2425N 07427W 6962 03077 9939 +108 +083 063051 052 036 000 03
124330 2425N 07429W 6955 03087 9940 +109 +072 061053 053 037 000 00
124400 2425N 07432W 6959 03084 9944 +106 +075 060051 052 038 000 00
124430 2425N 07435W 6960 03084 9948 +103 +078 057052 052 037 000 00
124500 2425N 07437W 6962 03082 9951 +102 +080 056051 053 036 000 00
124530 2425N 07440W 6963 03082 9949 +106 +073 055049 049 036 000 00
124600 2425N 07443W 6959 03088 9951 +105 +066 052051 052 035 000 00
124630 2425N 07445W 6959 03088 9957 +101 +067 051050 052 037 000 00
124700 2425N 07448W 6962 03087 9958 +103 +067 050050 050 037 000 03
124730 2425N 07450W 6958 03093 9960 +100 +067 051050 050 036 000 00
124800 2424N 07453W 6958 03096 9961 +103 +066 052049 050 036 000 00
124830 2424N 07456W 6957 03099 9960 +105 +065 052048 049 036 000 00
124900 2424N 07458W 6960 03097 9961 +105 +063 051044 047 036 000 00
124930 2424N 07501W 6955 03104 9965 +104 +075 045042 043 037 000 00
125000 2424N 07503W 6959 03099 9965 +104 +067 043042 043 037 000 03
125030 2424N 07506W 6963 03096 9963 +107 +065 048044 044 034 000 03
125100 2424N 07509W 6961 03099 9959 +113 +055 046044 045 033 000 00
125130 2424N 07511W 6957 03105 9963 +110 +060 036041 043 034 000 03
125200 2422N 07513W 6971 03092 9966 +112 +063 035040 041 /// /// 03
125230 2421N 07512W 6967 03096 9965 +111 +065 036038 040 030 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

The 12Z models are going to be incredibly important.

But let's not lose sight of the fact the Bahamas are being slammed as we speak...

[Yellow Evan]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011302
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 30 20151001
125300 2419N 07511W 6959 03107 9967 +109 +063 043038 040 032 000 00
125330 2418N 07509W 6963 03098 9972 +100 +071 045040 041 034 000 00
125400 2417N 07508W 6967 03093 9967 +105 +067 043040 041 034 000 00
125430 2416N 07507W 6965 03094 9965 +105 +070 039039 040 033 000 00
125500 2414N 07505W 6959 03101 9966 +103 +079 041039 039 034 000 00
125530 2413N 07504W 6965 03092 9964 +105 +074 036039 039 036 000 03
125600 2412N 07502W 6964 03092 9959 +108 +074 037040 040 036 000 00
125630 2411N 07501W 6966 03090 9958 +109 +068 038041 041 035 000 00
125700 2409N 07500W 6963 03091 9960 +106 +074 038041 041 035 000 00
125730 2408N 07458W 6959 03097 9961 +104 +073 039044 045 035 000 00
125800 2407N 07457W 6966 03085 9957 +105 +073 041046 047 035 000 03
125830 2406N 07455W 6966 03082 9949 +108 +068 041049 049 036 000 03
125900 2404N 07454W 6965 03080 9939 +115 +062 037048 049 036 000 00
125930 2403N 07453W 6963 03081 9944 +108 +073 037049 049 035 000 03
130000 2402N 07451W 6965 03075 9945 +104 +084 036048 049 035 000 00
130030 2400N 07450W 6966 03076 9944 +107 +083 037047 048 036 000 03
130100 2359N 07448W 6961 03080 9930 +115 +073 037048 049 037 000 00
130130 2358N 07447W 6965 03072 9929 +114 +077 040045 047 037 000 00
130200 2357N 07446W 6963 03071 9929 +110 +082 045046 047 037 000 00
130230 2355N 07444W 6965 03066 9932 +105 +088 045048 050 038 000 00
$$

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011302
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 30 20151001
125300 2419N 07511W 6959 03107 9967 +109 +063 043038 040 032 000 00
125330 2418N 07509W 6963 03098 9972 +100 +071 045040 041 034 000 00
125400 2417N 07508W 6967 03093 9967 +105 +067 043040 041 034 000 00
125430 2416N 07507W 6965 03094 9965 +105 +070 039039 040 033 000 00
125500 2414N 07505W 6959 03101 9966 +103 +079 041039 039 034 000 00
125530 2413N 07504W 6965 03092 9964 +105 +074 036039 039 036 000 03
125600 2412N 07502W 6964 03092 9959 +108 +074 037040 040 036 000 00
125630 2411N 07501W 6966 03090 9958 +109 +068 038041 041 035 000 00
125700 2409N 07500W 6963 03091 9960 +106 +074 038041 041 035 000 00
125730 2408N 07458W 6959 03097 9961 +104 +073 039044 045 035 000 00
125800 2407N 07457W 6966 03085 9957 +105 +073 041046 047 035 000 03
125830 2406N 07455W 6966 03082 9949 +108 +068 041049 049 036 000 03
125900 2404N 07454W 6965 03080 9939 +115 +062 037048 049 036 000 00
125930 2403N 07453W 6963 03081 9944 +108 +073 037049 049 035 000 03
130000 2402N 07451W 6965 03075 9945 +104 +084 036048 049 035 000 00
130030 2400N 07450W 6966 03076 9944 +107 +083 037047 048 036 000 03
130100 2359N 07448W 6961 03080 9930 +115 +073 037048 049 037 000 00
130130 2358N 07447W 6965 03072 9929 +114 +077 040045 047 037 000 00
130200 2357N 07446W 6963 03071 9929 +110 +082 045046 047 037 000 00
130230 2355N 07444W 6965 03066 9932 +105 +088 045048 050 038 000 00
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Based on the latest SFMR readings, I would bump the intensity up to 110 kt. It was likely inflated at 117 slightly by rain, but not too greatly.

Keep in mind that since the center is now over the shallow waters near the Bahamas, SFMR readings can be inflated due to shoaling, regardless of rain rates. Flight level winds don't seem any higher than last night.

[BucMan2]

Good morning- When is the anticipated turn to the north? A storm of this size and strength will not just stop on dime and turn! Areas south of the Bahamas
(Cuba, Keys) will have to watch this very carefully!

[northjaxpro]

Slammed hard unfortunately. I am fearing the worst for portions of the Bahamas.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the eye may finally be clearing out. Pretty unique to have an ATL hurricane at 940 mb with a cloud filled eye still.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011312
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 31 20151001
130300 2354N 07443W 6967 03059 9924 +111 +083 048051 052 039 000 00
130330 2353N 07441W 6962 03069 9919 +117 +071 048051 052 039 000 00
130400 2352N 07440W 6963 03064 9920 +115 +076 047054 056 038 000 03
130430 2351N 07439W 6964 03063 9922 +110 +078 046055 056 039 000 00
130500 2349N 07437W 6961 03074 9926 +109 +082 046055 056 040 000 00
130530 2348N 07436W 6962 03058 9912 +112 +079 047054 055 039 000 00
130600 2347N 07435W 6961 03051 9908 +108 +087 043053 055 041 000 00
130630 2346N 07433W 6967 03038 9908 +105 +094 047057 058 043 001 00
130700 2345N 07432W 6965 03041 9900 +108 +092 046060 060 044 000 03
130730 2343N 07431W 6963 03043 9897 +110 +082 041061 062 044 000 00
130800 2342N 07429W 6959 03042 9900 +104 +086 040062 062 046 001 00
130830 2341N 07428W 6963 03032 9891 +105 +096 040064 064 046 001 00
130900 2340N 07426W 6959 03035 9887 +103 +100 038063 065 047 000 01
130930 2339N 07425W 6966 03020 //// +093 //// 040061 061 047 002 01
131000 2338N 07423W 6961 03021 //// +096 //// 039064 066 048 002 01
131030 2337N 07422W 6965 03012 //// +092 //// 037068 071 049 005 01
131100 2336N 07420W 6961 03010 9898 +101 +101 036071 074 049 007 00
131130 2335N 07419W 6963 02999 9895 +106 +106 041068 072 047 010 03
131200 2334N 07417W 6966 02987 9871 +098 //// 045072 073 050 005 01
131230 2333N 07416W 6961 02988 //// +100 //// 044074 076 050 003 01
$$
;

[txwatcher91]

YIKES! If the station at San Salvador is accurate they're seeing sustained 100mph winds and gusts to 129 already.

http://www.wunderground.com/bs/san-salvador

[gatorcane]

Looks to be losing latitude still and sagging SSW, yet again off the NHC forecast points.

Could he be getting steered by 300MB and higher winds now since he is so deep?

Could he start pumping up the ridge?

Latest loop (RAMMB):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011322
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 32 20151001
131300 2332N 07415W 6965 02979 //// +106 //// 041078 080 054 003 01
131330 2331N 07413W 6963 02969 9819 +105 +104 038078 080 058 003 01
131400 2330N 07412W 6964 02954 9799 +111 +099 038083 083 062 006 00
131430 2328N 07411W 6961 02945 9796 +108 //// 040082 083 065 006 01
131500 2327N 07409W 6963 02929 9785 +114 +114 041084 086 068 008 00
131530 2326N 07408W 6958 02923 9782 +112 +112 043086 088 069 009 00
131600 2325N 07406W 6964 02903 9741 +116 +115 041090 092 068 008 00
131630 2324N 07405W 6963 02884 9704 +127 +105 038095 098 073 008 00
131700 2323N 07404W 6955 02873 9676 +130 +110 038101 105 078 007 00
131730 2322N 07402W 6969 02829 9638 +141 +093 038111 113 082 008 00
131800 2321N 07401W 6966 02807 9612 +138 +113 036114 116 091 008 00
131830 2320N 07400W 6957 02784 9567 +148 +121 037112 119 094 004 00
131900 2319N 07358W 6950 02775 9527 +165 +128 043099 106 095 004 00
131930 2318N 07357W 6973 02712 9499 +157 +136 049097 101 095 000 03
132000 2317N 07356W 6973 02684 9470 +152 +137 054081 093 091 002 03
132030 2316N 07355W 6955 02681 9432 +168 +126 052063 076 071 001 00
132100 2315N 07353W 6966 02654 9420 +167 +123 054044 054 053 002 00
132130 2313N 07352W 6969 02640 9409 +168 +123 062026 040 043 001 03
132200 2312N 07351W 6955 02651 9394 +178 +103 068017 022 026 001 00
132230 2310N 07350W 6972 02628 9385 +189 +095 062014 017 025 000 00
$$
;

119 kt FL, 95 kt SFMR in NE quad (back side). Pressure 939 and falling (extrap).

[tropicwatch]

YIKES! If the station at San Salvador is accurate they're seeing sustained 100mph winds and gusts to 129 already.

http://www.wunderground.com/bs/san-salvador

Looks like that is when the station went offline.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Woke up this morning to find that the models are beginning to trend to the right. If this is a windshield wiper thing, we should find out today with the next few model runs. It appears in these model runs that Joaquin is being affected by the weakness to the east created by 90L, and this is what may keep Joaquin off the coast (hopefully). In looking at Joaquin this morning, I am wondering if he is already feeling the weakness from 90L? Joaquin appears to be making an easterly turn, instead of a westerly one. Almost as if it is being pulled towards 90L. Could this actually be happening? If it is, would this also have the ability to further strengthen 90L? I remember that on Tuesday, a couple models were dealing with a Fujiwara effect between the two systems. Could this set-up actually verify? Also, if the turn to the east of Joaquin is a temporary one and he turns back to the west, would he weaken due to upwelling or is the water shallow enough in the Bahamas that it would not be an issue? A lot of questions, I know, but ones I hope to see answered by members of this board, or "Mother Nature" sometime today/

[summersquall]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
Nature truly is humbling. Hang in there Bahamas!

[BobHarlem]

The models are still as clear as mud this morning, they have been consistently blowing the short term track. (Which has generally, and even now, has been more south than any of the models, even the euro, forecast) Until I see something other than a wobble in a definitive northerly direction, I don't buy any of them.

--

Not an official forecast.