ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

When is the next recon mission? The next one is going to be interesting.

One just left Homestead.

[NDG]

It has done that the last 3 days. Big blowup in the afternoon that gets sooo close to the LLC and rinse repeat

Except this time the MLC is closer to the LLC.

It looks like the LLC even paused its forward motion briefly in the RGB loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I agree.

[AdamFirst]

:uarrow: After forecast discussion said he might strengthen to a possible Cat 2 on his way to SE Fla. School was canceled and we call him "The Leaf Blower".

Yeah, I remember classes getting cancelled all the way up in St. Lucie County for Ernesto, I was in junior year of high school back then. I went to go see a movie since the theater was still open

[Sanibel]

I wonder what pressure they'll find in that surface "eye"?

[Steve]

3rd time might be the charm. It looks like this burst might actually pull in the LLC since it isnt moving nearly as fast as it has been the last couple of days when this happened.

It's possible, but I wouldn't put any money on it. It might for a while, but the 18z intensity models for HWRF, GFDL and IVCN don't even get going until after 60 hours. GFDL is a little earlier, but it's 72 hours (Sunday afternoon) before any of them get to even 60 knots. I'm not believing in intensity outputs from dynamical or consensus models, but if you use them for a guide to answer the question as far as Erika over the next few days, the answer is 'struggle'. If she follows what these indicate, expect some ramp ups and ramp downs at least until the weekend possibly including occasional decoupling and shearing off of middle and upper level moisture.

[Hurricaneman]

Its pretty close to stacked now so we may see an intensification as early as this evening if it keeps this look or tucks further under

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[JtSmarts]

EDIT - Meant for models thread.

[ROCK]

I wonder what pressure they'll find in that surface "eye"?

1000MB is my guess. That LLC just circled around in the effort to stack vertically so improving some.

[Hammy]

Any chance the shear weakens long enough for this to pull north of the Islands over the next several hours?

[ScottNAtlanta]

3rd time might be the charm. It looks like this burst might actually pull in the LLC since it isnt moving nearly as fast as it has been the last couple of days when this happened.

It's possible, but I wouldn't put any money on it. It might for a while, but the 18z intensity models for HWRF, GFDL and IVCN don't even get going until after 60 hours. GFDL is a little earlier, but it's 72 hours (Sunday afternoon) before any of them get to even 60 knots. I'm not believing in intensity outputs from dynamical or consensus models, but if you use them for a guide to answer the question as far as Erika over the next few days, the answer is 'struggle'. If she follows what these indicate, expect some ramp ups and ramp downs at least until the weekend possibly including occasional decoupling and shearing off of middle and upper level moisture.

You mean the windshield wipers? They have been flip flopping more than a fish out of water. No expert here but sometimes you have to believe what your eyes see.

[OuterBanker]

Can't believe it, this am I thought it was just keep going west and become a memory. Models moved from a east coast monster back to a weakling up Florida. Now apparently it's reforming to the north and aligning. Each day the morning and afternoon models bring completely different scenarios.

May I be excused, my brain is full!

[alienstorm]

If we look at the close in visible you can see that the LLC has been tucked backed in to the convention to the west as it builds. More importantly if you look at the general appearance there is now cumulus building and starting to band in, as well as an Upper Level High building over it. All this will indicate that Erika is now starting to stack up with the LC and MLC.

Also, keep in mind that on the projected path and some of the models have hinted at this in their afternoon run the intensity will be keep in tack due to it's close approach to the northern coast of Hispaniola, you would expect to have the high mountains cutoff the inflow from the south. Once she clears the island (around 74 /75 west then that's when the intensification will start in earnest.

So we have the classic setup for quick if not rapid intensification from when Erika is SE of Andros to when it hits land somewhere in the FLA southeast coast. Also note that Hurricanes coming in from the South or Southeast are usually the worst for tidal surge flooding along the Florida SE coast.

We will wait and see but that is the picture that is currently being drawn by the models as well as the overall pattern.

[Nederlander]

While not historically a big fan, TWC is actually doing a really good job of explaining in detail all of the variables at play with Erika. Even going so far as to explain the llc/mlc trouble she has been having. They also explained the new convection popping near the llc as a sign of organization along with shear developments. At any rate I thought I'd give credit where credit is due. Bryan Norcross was giving the breakdown and explained some of the more complicated aspects in layman's terms.

[Steve]

3rd time might be the charm. It looks like this burst might actually pull in the LLC since it isnt moving nearly as fast as it has been the last couple of days when this happened.

It's possible, but I wouldn't put any money on it. It might for a while, but the 18z intensity models for HWRF, GFDL and IVCN don't even get going until after 60 hours. GFDL is a little earlier, but it's 72 hours (Sunday afternoon) before any of them get to even 60 knots. I'm not believing in intensity outputs from dynamical or consensus models, but if you use them for a guide to answer the question as far as Erika over the next few days, the answer is 'struggle'. If she follows what these indicate, expect some ramp ups and ramp downs at least until the weekend possibly including occasional decoupling and shearing off of middle and upper level moisture.

You mean the windshield wipers? They have been flip flopping more than a fish out of water. No expert here but sometimes you have to believe what your eyes see.

No. Someone posted the intensity models (not the tracks) on the models thread from 18z via some other site. It included GFDL and HWRF (dynamicals) along with IVCN which is a consensus. The system is mostly flatlined around 40k for the next 3 days with a bit of an earlier rise in windspeed on the GFDL, but in any event, none of them get Erika to 60 knots until Sunday/72 hours. Most of the other intensity guidance, while equally suspect, sort of shows the same thing. Erika is likely going to be weak for at least a couple of days. NHC is going with this too and really doesn't consider much strengthening: ...disruption is expected to continue for the next couple of days. No significant strengthening is expected until later in the forecast period...

[Weatherboy1]

The last couple of hours' worth of satellite shots are showing Erika getting her act together, in my view. LLC/MLCs seem to be more closely co-located and convection now getting closer to and/or over the center. IF that can persist overnight, we're going to be waking up to a stronger storm.

Just the opinion of a semi-educated amateur, follow the experts as always

[ScottNAtlanta]

While not historically a big fan, TWC is actually doing a really good job of explaining in detail all of the variables at play with Erika. Even going so far as to explain the llc/mlc trouble she has been having. They also explained the new convection popping near the llc as a sign of organization along with shear developments. At any rate I thought I'd give credit where credit is due. Bryan Norcross was giving the breakdown and explained some of the more complicated aspects in layman's terms.

They've been doing some programming with WU...I wonder if that was what you were seeing. I haven't watched it yet, but it sounds interesting

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is convection now firing right over the center on the latest visible. Interesting what recon will find when they get there. I'm not sure shear is going to be as bad as some are forecasting (esp on accuweather)

[Steve]

There is convection now firing right over the center on the latest visible. Interesting what recon will find when they get there. I'm not sure shear is going to be as bad as some are forecasting (esp on accuweather)

Yeah, there is a little blossom in the NW corner of the main ball of convection which is where I think the low level center is. But the storms and convection generally trail it to the East which has been mid-level energy all along (with the lower level center occasionally breaking out ahead of it and getting pulled back in or generating new convection). So there is definitely enough shear to displace convection which it has done day after day so far. That probably won't last forever and certainly wasn't going to be a major factor if it took a more eastern route say Bahamas/East of Florida.

[HURRICANELONNY]

you can see the outer bands in puerto rico. fast moving showers out of the n.e.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... a&loop=yes

[Hammy]

Latest radar showing the MLC almost due south of Anguilla.