ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 011346
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 01/13:23:50Z
B. 23 deg 06 min N
073 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2595 m
D. 95 kt
E. 323 deg 17 nm
F. 036 deg 119 kt
G. 321 deg 18 nm
H. 942 mb
I. 14 C / 3056 m
J. 20 C / 3054 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C32
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF301 0711A JOAQUIN OB 13
MAX FL WIND 119 KT 321 / 18 NM 13:18:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 110 / 7 KT
;

Pressure steady but the eye is closed again. Still the satellite pinhole is an illusion.

[windnrain]

Watching the cutoff low evolve, what will be an early sign that the landfall solutions are correct or incorrect?

[northjaxpro]

Looks to be losing latitude still and sagging SSW, yet again off the NHC forecast points.

Could he be getting steered by 300MB and higher winds now since he is so deep?

Could he start pumping up the ridge?

Latest loop (RAMMB):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Ah, good morning gatorcane. I know we have discussed this theory the past couple of days. I see you are still proposing this possibility. Well, it may not be the likely of the scenarios, but is a plausible one to keep on the table considering how extremely intense Joaquin is currently. We haveseen instances in the past in which these i tense cyclones can create their own environment from within and pump the ridges steering them .Today will be very telling with regards if this scenario and sering if it may hsve a chance to come to fruition. I don't think so, but in this crazy season we have witnessed to this point, who knows what will happen next?






.

[Blown Away]

Just amazing, there is a @Cat 3/4 Hurricane a few hundred miles SE of SFL moving SSW and no threat to SFL at all... Crazy... Bahamas getting wrecked...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011352
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 35 20151001
134300 2218N 07256W 6966 03076 9982 +095 +095 234048 050 053 009 00
134330 2216N 07255W 6963 03086 9974 +102 +102 231048 049 052 008 00
134400 2215N 07253W 6953 03101 9999 +098 +098 225051 056 052 008 00
134430 2214N 07252W 6967 03089 9991 +101 +101 223049 051 049 007 00
134500 2213N 07251W 6963 03099 0001 +099 +099 223046 049 048 010 03
134530 2211N 07249W 6961 03107 0005 +096 +096 229043 045 049 010 00
134600 2210N 07248W 6970 03073 9990 +097 +097 228042 043 051 015 00
134630 2209N 07247W 6966 03079 9978 +098 +098 230045 051 050 016 00
134700 2208N 07245W 6962 03117 0016 +097 +097 227046 054 051 012 00
134730 2206N 07244W 6961 03116 9996 +099 +099 232050 050 051 012 03
134800 2205N 07243W 6967 03082 9975 +101 +101 232053 055 051 012 03
134830 2204N 07241W 6963 03086 9977 +102 +102 233054 055 050 012 03
134900 2203N 07240W 6966 03080 9972 +103 +103 233052 055 052 010 00
134930 2201N 07238W 6961 03087 9976 +101 +101 228047 052 052 007 00
135000 2200N 07237W 6963 03086 9986 +097 //// 218045 053 051 007 01
135030 2159N 07236W 6953 03101 9987 +096 +096 209057 059 046 006 00
135100 2158N 07235W 6976 03077 9973 +100 +100 213054 057 046 006 00
135130 2157N 07233W 6967 03092 9974 +100 +100 208051 055 045 007 00
135200 2155N 07232W 6955 03104 9992 +097 +097 207055 056 043 008 00
135230 2154N 07231W 6985 03075 9969 +105 +091 211054 056 046 007 00
$$
;

[WeatherEmperor]

Just amazing, there is a @Cat 3/4 Hurricane a few hundred miles SE of SFL moving SSW and no threat at all... Crazy...

+1 on this just how many more times do we dodge a bullet here? Its incredible how these systems find a way to never hit us talk about luck


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

[tolakram]

Big picture loop, lots and lots of rain for the east coast.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[Alyono]

Looks to be losing latitude still and sagging SSW, yet again off the NHC forecast points.

Could he be getting steered by 300MB and higher winds now since he is so deep?

Could he start pumping up the ridge?

Latest loop (RAMMB):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

quite possibly. It may be why Ike made the Gulf. It underwent rapid intensification and was steered southward by northerly outflow from Hanna

This is also east of the model points

again, watch Haiti

Haiti landfall would be crazy considering none of the models remotely show that. Could you imagine if that happened and then it wondered westward? Has there ever been a Hurricane that did the opposite of what the models said in the last 20 or so years?

I didn't say Haiti landfall. I said watch the flooding there

[hawkeh]

I have some local pictures from some islands in the Bahamas coming in. Can I post them in here or is there a different thread?

[Blown Away]

I didn't say Haiti landfall. I said watch the flooding there

Why can't the models pick up on this short term SSW movement? Joaquin been going S of the track for past day...

[BucMan2]

ronjon, It appears that the Northeast Cuba may already be getting some of the outer fringes
as we speak!

[AutoPenalti]

Here's an interesting stat that I found:

#Joaquin has generated more ACE in <3 days than did all Atlantic TCs combined from 9/6-9/28 (22 days).

[Jevo]

Meanwhile 70 miles away on the Port Nassau webcam... Beautiful day

Just goes to show how tight and compact this storm is.. Just a big ball of Boom



http://portnassauwebcam.com/

[windnrain]

What are the track implications of him "pumping the ridge"?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Awesome Sat presentations. Best of 2015 by a country mile.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011402
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 36 20151001
135300 2153N 07230W 6959 03103 //// +081 //// 204050 051 045 009 05
135330 2154N 07228W 6986 03077 9993 +084 //// 204049 053 044 011 05
135400 2156N 07226W 6953 03113 9984 +096 +090 210045 052 044 007 02
135430 2158N 07225W 6980 03082 9990 +091 +089 205045 047 045 007 00
135500 2200N 07224W 6958 03108 //// +077 //// 201041 046 042 008 05
135530 2202N 07224W 6975 03140 0035 +085 //// 200045 049 043 011 05
135600 2204N 07224W 6960 03103 9999 +092 +092 203050 051 048 011 00
135630 2206N 07224W 6974 03086 0014 +088 +088 193050 051 049 011 00
135700 2208N 07224W 6974 03085 0022 +081 +081 177050 051 045 013 00
135730 2210N 07224W 6968 03091 0022 +081 +081 177050 051 046 016 00
135800 2213N 07224W 6968 03090 0014 +084 +084 176049 050 047 014 03
135830 2215N 07224W 6969 03088 0013 +084 +084 179051 052 050 013 03
135900 2217N 07225W 6963 03095 0003 +087 +087 181050 052 051 012 03
135930 2219N 07225W 6973 03081 0001 +088 +088 182048 049 053 011 00
140000 2221N 07225W 6970 03085 0007 +088 +088 180049 052 047 014 00
140030 2224N 07225W 6985 03067 0006 +090 +090 185046 051 048 014 00
140100 2226N 07225W 6965 03092 0012 +089 +089 184051 054 049 015 00
140130 2228N 07225W 6960 03096 0012 +085 +085 172055 057 051 014 03
140200 2230N 07225W 6970 03085 0001 +082 +081 166051 055 052 012 03
140230 2232N 07225W 6967 03089 0014 +078 +078 165053 053 051 011 03
$$
;

[jlauderdal]

I didn't say Haiti landfall. I said watch the flooding there

Why can't the models pick up on this short term SSW movement? Joaquin been going S of the track for past day...

erika did the same thing

[northjaxpro]

I have some local pictures from some islands in the Bahamas coming in. Can I post them in here or is there a different thread?

Please do. We all are extremely concerned for those down in the Bahamas. I can't fathom the wicked conditions right now. Praying for all in the Bahamas as they are experiencing the absolute worst of the fury of this monster cyclone right now.

[CrazyC83]

Time to consider watches for Cuba and Hispaniola?

[davidiowx]

Awesome Sat presentations. Best of 2015 by a country mile.

You aren't kidding. Looks pretty amazing.