Global model runs discussion

[StormClouds63]

The persistent high which has ruled over the Gulf coast most of the summer is forecast to shift to the east, and so the next couple of weeks the GOM will need to be watched carefully.

[Stormcenter]

And then a "cold front" will sweep through and wash everything away.

The persistent high which has ruled over the Gulf coast most of the summer is forecast to shift to the east, and so the next couple of weeks the GOM will need to be watched carefully.

[southerngale]

And then a "cold front" will sweep through and wash everything away.

The persistent high which has ruled over the Gulf coast most of the summer is forecast to shift to the east, and so the next couple of weeks the GOM will need to be watched carefully.

Excuse me? Wash everything away to where?

If something forms in or gets into the GOM, it's going to hit somewhere.

[hcane27]

Not so fast my friend (aka Lee Corso) Henri in 1979 never hit anywhere in the GOM ...

[sandyb]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_0z/f288.gif

288 hours out headed up the coast

[ROCK]

EURO shows something in the long run running out of the carib under FL and up the EC.....

[Portastorm]

Not so fast my friend (aka Lee Corso) Henri in 1979 never hit anywhere in the GOM ...

Let's put it in perspective ... it happened four times in 100 years.

[cycloneye]

240 hours at 12z ECMWF.

[sjmballer]

whats that brewing near brownsville?????

[srainhoutx]

whats that brewing near brownsville?????

There is a trough draped from SE TX to Deep S TX along the coast. A rainmaker for sure.

[sjmballer]

Thanks for reply... I was wondering we got some pretty heavy rain here in port arthur this morning...we definitely dont want a sneaky moment like humberto...

[Frank2]

I'm not a big fan of models beyond 96 hours, but the long-range 12z GFS does show the westward movement of the NW Caribbean low some mentioned earlier, and if the ridging to the north holds true, then that movement would certainly make sense (though my favorite stand of cypress might get pretty wet by the end of this week):

http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/_slp_gfs_12z.htm#

[Stormcenter]

That's assuming that something actually develops and so far everything that has been suppressed
way down south except for Alex. I'm not saying it won't happen but only that odds are decreasing
with time. Just my opinion.

And then a "cold front" will sweep through and wash everything away.

The persistent high which has ruled over the Gulf coast most of the summer is forecast to shift to the east, and so the next couple of weeks the GOM will need to be watched carefully.

Excuse me? Wash everything away to where?

If something forms in or gets into the GOM, it's going to hit somewhere.

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts: A lot of uncertainty from what I am reading...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
158 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

VALID 12Z THU SEP 23 2010 - 12Z MON SEP 27 2010

CLOSED LOWS LIE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF ALASKA TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF 140W... RESPECTIVELY. THIS COUPLED WITH BUILDING RIDGING
IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WARM/ WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US BY THIS
WEEKEND. RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE VARIED IN THE STRENGTH
OF SAID TROUGHING FROM A CLOSED LOW SEPARATING FROM THE FLOW AND
DROPPING TO NEW MEXICO /ECMWF RUNS FROM 19 SEPT/ TO A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC /GFS/. THESE DIFFERENCES OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF WHAT IS NOW WESTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W...WHICH BOTH THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z
ECMWF KEEP AS A STRONG SYSTEM WHILE THE 06Z GFS WAS QUITE WEAK
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
EXPECTED TO LIE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS TO PRONOUNCED
DIFFERENCES OVER THE LOWER 48 UNITED STATES. THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UPSTREAM AND
DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF POOR
CONTINUITY...LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

THE 00Z/20 ECMWF HAS STUCK WITH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR
KANSAS CITY BY SUN/D6 WHILE THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. EVEN HERE... THE 00Z
GEFS/NAEFS ARE FASTER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN ENS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF
ENS MEAN. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN LARGE CONTINUITY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...LOWERING OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PIECE OF GUIDANCE. TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM RIDGING IN WESTERN CANADA FAVOR ENERGY MOVING NEAR THE
WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE PERIOD...NOT A CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. FOLLOWED ALONG THE
LINE OF HPC CONTINUITY BY USING A 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND EARLY ON AS AN INITIAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A
00Z CANADIAN/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR SUNDAY AND
NEXT MONDAY WHICH KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL US AS THE WESTERLIES ARE FORCED THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA.

ENOUGH TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE EAST TO ALLOW FOR
A PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE EAST INTO MEXICO....THOUGH
THERE IS A QUESTION MARK CONCERNING WHERE ANY POSSIBLE CLOSED
CYCLONES WOULD FORM WITHIN THE EASTERN TROUGH WHICH MAKES PINNING
DOWN RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NEAR AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COORDINATION
WITH TPC LED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSION IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND WENT WITH THEIR IDEAS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ROTH/FRACASSO

[Portastorm]

Stormcenter, you wrote "odds are decreasing with time." Actually, the odds are increasing with time. Tangible, measurable atmospheric factors (favorable MJO, northward moving monsoonal trough) show a greater likelihood of development in that area. Furthermore, all computer modeling shows development in that area in the next 7-10 days. Also, trained professional meteorologists who we all follow have said the same.

That all adds up to a pretty easy equation and summation that the odds are most definitely increasing with time that we will see tropical development in this area.

[Steve]

>>That's assuming that something actually develops and so far everything that has been suppressed
way down south except for Alex. I'm not saying it won't happen but only that odds are decreasing
with time. Just my opinion.

With your track record this season, I'm thinking you'll eventually be right about the time factor. That should kick in some time in December or January. To have put well over 100 posts out there prosthletyzing and pontificating this and that as to why the season will never get going, you sure haven't been seen around those threads very much recently. In my opinion, you should sneak back in those and all the archived, active threads and revise some history.

[Frank2]

Perhaps too much Ice Road Truckers (lol), but just an aside that the Fairbanks NWS is discussing a deep trough that is setting up over AK, which definitely will have an effect with the troughs and highs over the lower 48 in the days to come:

http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wm ... ype=public

[wxman57]

Note that the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS are COMPLETE opposites concerning the pattern across the U.S. and west Atlantic:

GFS (GIANT ridge over eastern U.S. and storm blocked in Gulf):


Euro (GIANT trof over eastern U.S. and storm shoots across Florida ahead of it):

[cycloneye]

57, which CONUS pattern do you see evolving?

[wxman57]

57, which CONUS pattern do you see evolving?

Well, since the 240hr Canadian from 00Z looks very much like the Euro, I'd suspect that the 12Z GFS is on some type of illegal drug and all of its output is suspect.